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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - YellaWood 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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YellaWood 500🏁

The playoffs are about to get real interesting this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, AL for the YellaWood 500. ‘Dega is a 2.66 mile steeply banked tri-oval, the longest oval on the circuit. This should be common knowledge for the Pitstop faithful, but this is the 6th and final superspeedway race of the season, and our strategy for this track type is drastically different than the others. Our lineups will look vastly different this weekend than most others so make sure to check out the Lineup Construction section for a more in-depth breakdown.

We couldn’t ask for better weather this weekend, 80s with 2% chance of rain. Enjoy the race everyone.

_{On to ‘Dega!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 188 laps will be run this week, and 47 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 160 laps should run under the green flag for 72 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Superspeedways are an entirely different animal than what we see anywhere else on the NASCAR circuit. Considering this is the 6th superspeedway race of the season, we should probably have a decent idea of the general strategy going into Sunday’s race. Almost all of the cars will have the same top speed this weekend, forcing them to drive in huge packs only inches away from each other to maximize their speed. The downside to this type of racing is any slight hiccup could set off a chain reaction crash that has the potential to wipe out a significant portion of the field, called “The Big One.” We need to build our lineups with the understanding that a Big One is all but guaranteed. What does this mean? We want to build lineups with a solid floor and slate-winning ceiling. By backloading our lineups and prioritizing place differential, we limit the downside to one of our drivers being caught up in a wreck while also capitalizing on place differential possibilities if our drivers run a clean race.

Specifically for Talladega, dominators are not generally a thing here, but drivers starting in the top 10 are more likely to make the perfect lineup here than Daytona. That doesn’t mean I would roster someone starting that far forward in cash, but in big tournaments taking a shot on one driver starting in the top 10 is recommended.

Oddly enough, drivers starting 30th or worse also aren’t a lock for the perfect lineup. While as many as three drivers have made recent winning lineups, loading up on the last six drivers has not been an optimal strategy for tournaments. Drivers starting between 11-29 are really where all the important decisions will be made this weekend.

Salary will not be a major consideration this weekend. Due to the back loaded nature of these lineups, lower priced drivers are usually preferred. The total salary for the perfect lineup was more than $47,000 only once over the last nine races at Talladega. Super cheap lineups are overkill here though. This is not Daytona so don’t leave $15,000 on the table and think you are being super contrarian, that strategy has not been successful at ‘Dega.

As always, I feel like superspeedways are the best track type to dabble in MME’ing. These slates play out more like DFS golf than anything and it only takes one lineup to have all six drivers alive at the end to potentially give you the biggest win of the season.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 60 Laps

Stage 3: 68 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($8,800 DK, $9,500 FD)

Chastain is starting the furthest back out of all the playoff drivers (32nd) and NEEDS a good finish to keep his season alive. Luckily for Ross, he is a fantastic superspeedway driver with a positive place differential in 8 for his last 12 races at this track type and a top 9 finish in three of his last six, including a win at Talladega in Spring 2022. I expect Stenhouse Jr to be the more popular driver due to his Daytona 500 win this year, cheaper price tag, and worse starting position, but I think Chastain has a better chance of making the perfect lineup, and he should come with lower ownership.

Justin Haley ($6,000 DK, $4,000 FD)

Haley is the resident superspeedway ringer in the field. Haley starts 30th and will forever be known as a shocking Daytona winner. While that specific win was a fluke (sorry I’m still salty), his four straight top 20 finishes at Talladega have proven that he knows what he is doing at this track type. Haley will hit value with any finish better than 22nd and I realistically think that is his floor, and he should have a top 10 ceiling.

Tournament Targets

Bubba Wallace ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD)

Wallace got his first Cup Series win at Talladega, but that will not be his last win here. For whatever reason, NASCAR’s most accident prone drivers excel at superspeedways, and Wallace is no different. He starts 10th on Sunday and will undoubtedly find himself leading the field at some point. Bubba consistently puts himself in contention at superspeedways, and I expect him to be hovering around the front row during the final restart, looking to punch his ticket to the next round of the playoffs.

Denny Hamlin ($9,800 DK, $12,000 FD)

Hamlin once went on a streak of six straight top 5 finishes at Superspeedways. Over his last seven races, he only has one top 5 finish. I think this is the perfect buy-low opportunity. Denny starts 12th on Sunday, and I am expecting him to be criminally low-owned. Due to his starting position, he pretty much needs to win to pay off his salary, but that is why he is the risky play of the week. Blaney, Wallace, Chastain, and Stenhouse will all be much higher owned than Hamlin this weekend, but I give Denny the best odds to win of that group, and I think he is a fantastic tournament play.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,000 DK, $3,500 FD)

Since returning to the Cup series, Dillon has consistently underperformed everywhere except superspeedways. In fact, Dillon has finished in the top 15 in four of his last seven races at either Talladega or Daytona. Ty starts 33rd on Sunday, and any finish inside the top 20 would be a great result, but he realistically has a top 15 ceiling.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Talladega that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Carson Hocevar ($5,900 DK, $4,800 FD)

Erik Jones ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($8,100 DK, $5,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chris Buescher ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD)

I am getting a little creative with the fade this weekend but things are going tooooooo well for Buescher at superspeedways this season. His worst finish this year at Talladega or Daytona is 4th, and that is not sustainable. While everyone will be loading up on Buescher starting 24th, I think the best play is to fade him because he is due to get caught up in a Big One.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 13-40 (-15.75 u)

There was a ton of chatter on X/Twitter about Herbst winning the pole as a super longshot on Saturday. He is an accomplished driver with a fast car, and if there was ever a chance for an outside-the-box top manufacturer winner it would come at a superspeedway. 50 to 1 is way too much to pass up.

Surprisingly MGM has much better odds than DK for this line. Busch will be racing for the win on Sunday, and if he comes up just a little bit short we can still get a great pay day. This result is by no means outside the realm of possibility, but knowing my current luck, he will finish 6th.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the YellaWood 500 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!