LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - YellaWood 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the YellaWood 500 Cheatsheet

YellaWood 500🏁

Despite a less-than-dominant performance from the pole, Denny Hamlin was able to capture his 60th career victory last weekend at Las Vegas, and with that win, he secured his seat in the Championship Race. The pressure has now turned up another notch as the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, AL, for the YellaWood 500. The track is a 2.66-mile, steeply banked tri-oval and is known as one of the two traditional superspeedways on the circuit. Considering that this is the 4th (or 6th if we count Atlanta) superspeedway race this season and close to the 30th in Pitstop history, we should know the unique strategy for this track type. However, I will still go over everything quickly in the Lineup Construction section.

Rain is expected during the early morning hours of Sunday. While the afternoon is clear, we may get a delayed start time for drying. Once the rain dissipates, we should have smooth sailing.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 188 laps will be run this week, and 47 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 164 laps should run under the green flag for 73.8 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) No one cares about dominators. There are never dominators at Daytona; drivers starting up front can stay up front at Atlanta, and Talladega is a mix. At one point, a dominator would sneak into the perfect lineup at Dega, and sometimes two top 10 drivers would perform well. We threw that completely away over the last four races. Yes, there may be a driver that leads like 25% of laps, but they don’t usually last the entire race.

2) Build our lineups expecting a Big One. The hallmark of a superspeedway race is a Big One, or a crash that takes out a significant number of cars. Our philosophy for years has been to backload lineups in the hopes of limiting our downside if our driver gets caught up in the wreck while simultaneously maximizing the place differential if they survive the race. In a completely mind-bending turn of events, there have been a handful of Big One-less superspeedway races over the last two seasons. Oddly enough, it turns out this backloaded approach also works when there aren’t a ton of casualties. So Big One or not, we are going with our tried and true method in the hopes of catching a couple of breaks along the way.

3) We can leave money on the table but lets’s not get crazy. In DFS as a whole, we try to use every penny of the salary cap we are allotted. At superspeedways, that is generally not the case. While we can leave up to $20,000 on the table at Daytona, we need to be slightly more conservative at Talladega. A solid baseline would be around $5,000 less. If you are building multiple lineups, I would set the salary range to $42,000-$49,500.

4) Embrace the uncomfortable. My model is predicting complete chaos for this race, and embrace that, don’t let it scare you away. If you find yourself clicking on a name you haven’t rostered all year, that is ok. In general, I would avoid the top 10; we can roster up to two drivers starting 11-20, and then the rest should start 21st or worse.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 60 Laps

Stage 3: 68 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,800 DK, $12,500 FD): Elliott has been a fairly consistent superspeedway racer, when he starts up front he runs into trouble and when he starts in the rear he finds himself up front. Well, to our luck, he is starting on the 25th on Sunday and ran into trouble here last Fall, so he should be set up for big things on Sunday.

Erik Jones ($6,300 DK, $4,200 FD): Jones had a stretch of three straight 6th place finishes which is actually insane but it also speaks to his ability to run well here. Jones starts 30th on Sunday and is full of place differential potential. In the last two races that Erik started in the 30s, he finished 5th and 20th, and honestly, any finish within that range works for us.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($8,500 DK, $7,800 FD): The thought of rostering Stenhouse Jr. at that price is laughable but considering salary will not be an issue it stings a little less. Ricky starts 37th and is coming off three straight top 14 finishes here, including a win. I would love to get a top 15 out of Stenhouse, but anything in the top 20 should do the trick.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($9,500 DK, $10,000 FD): Larson completely dominated Vegas but wasn’t able to come away with a W. I do not expect an equally dominant performance at Talladega on Sunday, but as long as he’s in contention for the checkered flag, he should score enough points from his 19th-place starting position to find himself in the perfect lineup.

Todd Gilliland ($6,600 DK, $6,500 FD): Gilliland is not a name you think of often at superspeedways but over the last six races he has five top 18 finishes. Starting 27th, that is plenty of place differential potential considering his starting position. Todd has fared slightly worse at correlated tracks, so it would seem that there is something about Dega that Gilliland likes.

Josh Haley ($6,500 DK, $6,200 FD): Haley is a well-known superspeedway ringer and former Daytona winner. Qualifying is not generally kind to Josh, but he has two 7th-place finishes in his last four races here, and I think some people may actually be scared off of him due to his 22nd-place starting position.

Noah Gragson ($6,400 DK, $4,500 FD): Gragson is another driver that has flown under the radar at superspeedways but he has two top 6 finishes in his last three races at Talladega. Noah starts waaaaaaay in the back, 36th, and could potentially put up a massive score if he stays clean.

Bargain Basement

Austin Hill ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

Racing fans know Hill from his Xfinity success, but I don’t think he really has the name recognition to stand out in this race. He is dirt cheap and starting 33rd. In a race where we won’t be forced to draft a basement driver, I expect Hill to be drastically underowned, which should provide a massive leverage opportunity.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Talladega that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($7,500 DK, $6,000 FD)

Joey Logano ($10,200 DK, $14,000 FD)

Austin Dillon ($7,000 DK, $5,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($8,300 DK, $11,000 FD)

Betting against Busch has been very profitable over the last two years, and we get a prime opportunity to fade him and his 3rd place starting position. Kyle has started in the top 4 in each of the last three races and hasn’t finished better than 19th in those races. I fully expect him to fade into the abyss or, even worse, get swept up in the Big One.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 27-37 (7.65 u)

I will continue to perpetually fade Briscoe for at least the rest of the season. His finishing position prop is set at 10.5 while Chastain’s is set at 13.5. Briscoe starts on the front row for what seems like the 30th time this season, while Chastain starts 24th. Call this a gut feeling, but I would rather a competent driver begin further back in the field at plus money than a potential superstar blocking for 188 laps.

Underdog and DK matched on every one of their shared lines, but suspiciously, these two drivers did not make it onto Underdog. Berry starts 6th and has a top finish of 16th at Talladega in three career Cup races. Hocevar starts 32nd and has one top 10 finish in four career Cup races. Even at calm tracks, these drivers end up finding trouble, so I wouldn’t be surprised if both drivers have issues on Sunday.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-13 (-2.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the YellaWood 500 Cheatsheet

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