🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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YellaWood 500🏁

This season's playoffs keep getting stranger with the fourth consecutive non-playoff driver winning last weekend. Now NASCAR travels to the cathedral of uncertainty for the YellaWood 500. Talladega Superspeedway, which is located in Lincoln AL, is a 2.66 mile steeply banked asphalt tri-oval. Dega is one of the three superspeedways on the schedule and we will go over the unique way to attack this track type in the Lineup Construction section. Weather does not project to be an issue this weekend so should be in store for 500 miles of white knuckle racing.

On to Dega!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 188 laps will be run, and 47 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 158 laps should run under the green flag for 71.1 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This is the sixth superspeedway race of the season and around the 20th since the inception of the Pitstop, so we should be fairly familiar with the proper lineup construction for this slate. Superspeedways are a unique creature in NASCAR, as well as DFS. Since these tracks allow the cars to travel at abnormally high speeds, NASCAR had to artificially cap everyone's top speed, originally with a restrictor plate but now by other means. Because every car runs about the same speed, the only way to gain an edge is to ride around in a large pack. It is not unusual to see two rows of 10 to 15 cars racing side by side and nose to tail at 200 mph, especially at the end of stages and towards the end of the race. What makes this type of racing exciting and chaotic is the smallest slip-up from any car in the pack can set off a chain reaction crash that has the potential to collect a significant portion of the field, known as a "Big One." It's not a matter of if, more of a matter of when a Big One will occur, especially during the playoff race at Talladega where the winner can punch his ticket to the next round.

Now that we have defined what makes superspeedway racing so unique, how do we use that knowledge to our advantage? About 40% of the field will be involved in some sort of incident on Sunday, so we will need to ensure our lineups have a high enough floor that if one of our drivers is involved, our day isn't ruined. Generally, backloaded lineups work well at superspeedways. If a driver starting in the top 10 crashes early, your day is over, but if a driver starting 30th crashes early, you still have a chance to cash. Backloading lineups limits the number of points you lose if a driver runs into trouble while simultaneously maximizing the available place differential points if a driver survives the entire race. There are rarely dominators at superspeedways (except Atlanta twice this year, but that is a trend we have to keep an eye on) so chasing after dominator points is not a wise decision.

Daytona has a magic starting position of 24th, but we are not as lucky at Talladega. For cash games, I would suggest all drivers starting 15th or worse. In tournaments, we may need one driver starting in the top 10, and lineups tend to be more middle-centric (starting between 10-30), but the sentiment remains the same. Salaries are also more normal at Talladega, so I wouldn't suggest leaving more than $8,000 on the table. That is still a very large number but not as crazy as Daytona.

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 68 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Bubba Wallace ($8,900 DK, $10,500 FD)

Winning last year's Fall race at Talladega made people realize how good Wallace is at superspeedways. He has a positive place differential in eight of his last ten superspeedway races, including a win and two second-place finishes. Bubba starts 27th on Sunday and may actually be the highest owned driver on the slate. At Talladega it is usually a good idea to steer away from chalk due to the high attrition rate of these races but that is much less of a concern in cash. If he stays clean, Wallace should have no problem cracking the top 15 and brings legitimate race winning upside to the table.

Michael McDowell ($6,600 DK, $5,800 FD)

McDowell is another accomplished superspeedway driver starting towards the field's rear. The 2021 Daytona 500 winner is starting 29th on Sunday and coming off three straight races at Talladega with a positive place differential and a top 20 finish. Overall, he has finished with a positive place differential in nine of his last thirteen superspeedway races and has five top 10 finishes in that time. McDowell has the high floor we are looking for in cash games while providing tournament-winning upside.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,400 DK, $13,500 FD)

We must venture towards the front half of the field to take down a tournament for some drivers. Blaney jumps to mind as the top option starting in the top 20 with his 19th place starting position. Ryan, a two-time Talladega champion, is no stranger to the front of the field at superspeedways and has a knack for picking up at least a handful of laps led, including 23 this Spring at Talladega. He had a positive place differential in eight of his last twelve superspeedway races with seven top 10s. Blaney is not a cash-safe play because he will put up a big negative score if runs into trouble, but he is a legitimate contender for a win, and he will make the perfect lineup easily if he has anywhere near a ceiling race.

Tyler Reddick ($9,100 DK, $9,000 FD)

Five of the last eight perfect lineups at Talladega have had one driver starting in the top 10, so I figured I would include one of those drivers as the risky driver of the week. Reddick won last week at Texas and is looking to continue his hot streak on Sunday. He is the definition of a boom or bust driver at superspeedways with four top 7 finishes and three finishes of 35th or worse in his last eight races at Daytona/Talladega. Starting 8th, Reddick is in a prime position to pick up his second win in a row but he will have to survive being in the thick of the action for all 188 laps if he wants to make that happen.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($6,000 DK, $3,500 FD)

I am doubling down on my Lajoie play from last week since he did not disappoint with a 14th-place finish. This week, Corey starts 32nd and he provides massive upside for his price. Lajoie is coming off of 17 (!!!) straight superspeedway races with positive place differential with ten top 20 finishes in that time. For the price, Lajoie's consistency and ceiling are unmatched, he is a lock and load play for both cash and tournaments.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Talladega that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ty Dillon ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

Austin Cindric ($7,900 DK, $9,200 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($8,100 DK, $8,300 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Christopher Bell ($9,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Bell is starting on the pole on Sunday, which is not where you want to be at Talladega. There is almost zero chance he dominates the race and close to a 40% chance he is involved in an incident. That is a terrible combination for a driver with only one career top 10 finish at a superspeedway.

Pitstop Picks

16-46 (-18.3 u)

Books took a bath this year on speedway races, so their lines are super tight for this race. Hamlin and Logano are overrated at superspeedways, and I think Blaney has a higher ceiling than Elliott. I don't like playing the favorite in a group, but they are all similarly priced, and I like Blaney's ceiling/floor combo.

I wrote up three of these four drivers, so I'm playing Busch as a hedge. If Bell performs, he will sink me in DFS and betting but that's a risk I am willing to take. Reddick is boom or bust so I see him as a 50/50 shot to make a top 5. Wallace is good, but I will be heavily exposed to him in DFS. Busch looks sketchy at first glance, but he generally qualifies well and falls back, since he is starting 26th, he may fall back and let all the chaos ensue in front of him. I will have shares of Busch on DK and will also hedge with this bet.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the YellaWood 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!