LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Xfinity 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Check out the Xfinity 500 Cheatsheet

Xfinity 500🏁

Last week, Tyler Reddick pulled off one of the best last lap passes you will ever see and secured his seat in the Championship 4. This weekend, we have the penultimate race of the season and the last race in round 8. Six drivers will be battling for the two remaining spots in the Championship race when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA, for the Xfinity 500. The track is a 0.526 mile, flat, paper-clip-shaped oval with long asphalt straightaways and narrow concrete turns. Short-track racing with your season on the line is sure to cause some late-race drama, and that is exactly what has happened in the lower series this weekend. Everything is lining up for the Cup Series to have the best series of closing races in recent memory.

Sunday’s forecast is cooler than the last few weeks but still rain free. We are falling back an hour this weekend so the race may end under the lights but that should be the only environmental quirk.

Programing note: I will be tweaking the format of the Pitstop over the next few races so feel free to leave a comment in chat or reach out on X/Twitter to tell me what you like, don’t like, would possibly want to see going forward.

_{On to Martinsville!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 500 laps will be run this week, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 445 laps should run under the green flag for 200.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Roster at least 2 Dominators. 500 laps on a low incidence race track produces the highest fantasy scores of the season. While 4 of the last 5 races had exactly two drivers that led more than 100 laps but a third driver that leads less than 100 laps can still make the perfect lineup.

2) Soak up all the laps led. Laps led will be spread out but we should be able to capture at least 80% of them. 7 of the previous dominators started in the top 5 so we will want at least one driver starting in that range. If you are multi-entering, a top 5 double dip is also a reasonable play.

3) Front loaded lineups are ok. Every dominator in the last five races has started in the top 20 so we need to pay extra attention to that range. The early dominators will start up front but drivers starting in the middle of the pack can have dominator potential as well.

4) Top 15 potential is a must. If we are front loading lineups and looking for dominators, they must finish well too. We will need at least 5 top 15 finishes if we want a chance to take down a tournament.

5) The bargain basement is open…kinda. A basement driver may prove useful and they don’t have to adhere to the top 15 stipulation. Positive place differential and a respectable finish could be enough to make the perfect lineup.

Stage 1: 130 Laps

Stage 2: 130 Laps

Stage 3: 240 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,300 DK, $14,000 FD) Cash game lock starting dead last. I love the tournament fade because of his low dominator potential.

Christopher Bell ($10,300 DK, $11,500 FD) was insanely fast in the long run. If he could get through traffic, he could rack up the laps led.

Bubba Wallace ($7,800 DK, $10,000 FD) Sneaky good at Martinsville with a top 10 average finish. I don’t expect him to dominate but my model has him finishing with a positive place differential in every simulated race.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD): Model’s favorite driver by a long shot. Starting on the front row. He may not have had the fastest car in practice, but I love his chances to lead a ton of laps on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney ($11,000 DK, $13,000 FD): Fantastic track history and used to making big moves here. Blaney is the model’s second favorite driver, more place differential potential but less dominator potential.

Josh Berry ($7,300 DK, $7,000 FD): Stewart Haas Racing is very good at short flat tracks. Berry will be low owned due to his starting position but I think he has sneaky top 10 potential. High risk, high reward play.

Daniel Suarez ($7,000 DK, $6,200 FD) Suarez is decent at correlated tracks but not great at Martinsville. He should go overlooked starting 20th; if his 2% top 10 potential hits, he will smash value, large field play only.

Bargain Basement

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,000 DK, $4,200 FD)

Stenhouse is a basement driver for this race only. He starts 28th so he is not in danger of falling a lap down super early and has the chance of sneaking into the top 20. He is not a safe play by any means, but he has the potential to make the perfect lineup as long as he runs a clean race.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Tyler Reddick ($9,000 DK, $9,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,500 DK, $7,200 FD)

Kyle Busch ($8,100 DK, $7,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Harrison Burton ($5,500 DK, $2,500 FD)

Punting the fade again this weekend but there is no chance I am playing Burton starting 6th. His average finish here and at correlated tracks is in the mid 20s and I refuse to open myself up to the amount of downside he brings to the table.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-36 (5.7 u)

I am starting to think the books are catching on to us because the options keep decreasing. If you are squeamish about fading Hamlin in DFS this is a way you can do it on MGM. My model has Bell winning this by a healthy margin and I see a scenario where this race goes completely sideways for Hamlin.

This is another DFS hedge option. My model gives Berry a 64% chance of finishing in the Top 10 which means there’s a ton of value in this pick. I am admittedly terrible at top 10 bets but this is a juicy one I can’t resist.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Xfinity 500 cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!