🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Xfinity 500 🏁

Kyle Larson ran away with last week's race, as expected, so we have an interesting playoff situation heading into championship weekend. Only one driver can advance with a win, leaving 6 others trying to make it on points. For all intents and purposes Logano and Keselowski are in a win or go home situation and Elliott and Hamlin will advance with 22 and 25 points respectively no matter who wins. There are a whole host of other combinations that could play out but that will be the easiest way to envision the playoff picture going into Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, the penultimate race of the season will take place at Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, VA for the Xfinity 500. The track is a 0.526 mile, flat, paper clip shaped oval with asphalt in the straight-aways and concrete in the corners. The weather right now looks cool and clear so we should get a great afternoon of racing.

On to the Martinsville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run this and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 425 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 191.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

The maximum amount of dominator points available during this 500 lap marathon on Sunday. Naturally, we will want to focus on dominators first to try to scoop up as many points as possible. The last ten races have kind of been all over the place from a dominator perspective. Both races in 2019 had a driver lead 400+ laps and win from the third position. Four of the last ten races had two drivers that led more than 100 and finished in the perfect lineup. Six of those eight drivers started in the top 5 with the other two starting 14th and 17th. There have been two races with a major dominator (leading more than 230 laps) and a minor dominator (leading only around 100 laps) and the minor dominator failed to make the perfect lineup. Finally, there were two races where three drivers led more than 100 laps and all three of those drivers ended up in the perfect lineup. Of the six dominators in those two races, five drivers started in the top 9. Since this is a playoff race, I would lean more towards a three dominator lineup than a one dominator lineup because I think the playoff drivers will try a bunch of different strategies to get upfront and the non-playoff drivers will try to stay out of the way as much as they can in these small quarters.

If we are going to try to jam in our dominators, we will need some serious salary relief to balance out our lineups. Luckily for us, bargain-basement drivers will be in play this weekend, and they just have to finish in the top 30 with a positive place differential to be viable. A single slip-up can cost a driver multiple laps and ruin their day, so drivers can actually pick up a decent amount of spots but running a clean race. We should spread out the remaining 2-3 spots that we have in our lineups to drivers that we think can make it through the race unscathed, eventually ending up in the top 15.

Stage 1: 130 laps, Stage 2: 130 laps, Stage 3: 240 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 60

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($11,400 DK, $14,500 FD)

I am not the biggest fan of relying on repeat winners but I think Truex brings more to the table than a potential W. Martin starts 4th on Sunday and dug himself quite the hole going into this race. Truex is no stranger to leading at Martinsville, however, with 129+ laps led in three of the last four races here, including a whopping 464 laps led in 2019 (under a different rules package). Truex had the second best green flag average in the Spring race, en route to a non-dominating win, and has also posted the second best average speed at the short 750 HP tracks this season, only behind Hamlin. In tournaments I suggest sprinkling ownership to a little bit of each playoff driver but I think Truex should be a cash game staple.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD)

DiBenedetto starts 21st on Sunday and is on a bit of a Martinsville hot streak with three straight top 12 finishes. Matt finished 12th this Spring despite only having the 16th best green flag average speed and was able to put up a respectable 41.45 DK pts. I expect similar performance on Sunday, a 30 point floor with close to a 50 point ceiling which is a great combination for any cash lineup.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,700 DK, $12,000 FD)

Ryan Blaney is starting 8th on Sunday and is not getting nearly as much hype as he deserves. I was debating writing up Kes/Logano as my tournament dominator but I actually think they will both garner significantly more ownership than Blaney. Ryan is the most expensive of the three and is also starting the furthest back. He was able to lead 157 laps this Spring but only managed an 11th place finish. Even with that stagger, Blaney has the best average finish over the last seven races at Martinsville (compared to Kes/Logano) and the best average finish at similar tracks this year. I think its only a matter of time until Blaney finds himself in the front of the field on Sunday, the question is how long can he stay there.

Cole Custer ($6,600 DK, $5,700 FD)

We are going to need some cheap drivers to sneak into the top 20 on Sunday and I think Custer has the ability to do just that. Cole is starting 24th this weekend and actually has two straight top 20 finishes at Martinsville, including a 13th place finish last Fall. His 14th place finish at Loudon this Summer gives me hope that we can get another ceiling race out of him before the season is over.

Christopher Bell ($8,400 DK, $9,500 FD)

This is a weird one, but the logic is similar to why Byron worked last week. Bell has been incredibly fast in 750 HP races this year, posting the 4th best overall speed. He hasn't been incredible at Martinsville in his career but finished 7th this Spring, which is more than respectable. Bell is starting 12th on Sunday and would need a top 5 finish to come close to the perfect lineup. His ownership should be next to non-existent due to his high price and low dominator potential which could make him a nice leverage point. In one/two dominator lineups, Bell will fit fairly nicely as a high risk high reward option especially since all eyes will be on the playoff drivers.

Bargain Basement

Quin Houff ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD)

Houff is not a driver I ever feel good playing but he actually isn't terrible here. He managed to finish 24th this Spring by simply avoiding any major incident (which is almost unheard of for him) and he gets a much more palatable starting position of 36th on Sunday. Due to his low price he will only need a top 30 to have a chance at the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($10,700 DK, $13,500 FD)

Aric Almirola ($8,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Corie Lajoe ($6,000 DK, $4,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Larson ($11,800 DK, $13,000 FD)

People played the "Larson has nothing to race for" card last week and that blew up in their face. Larson is again sitting on the pole, but this time he is at one of this worst tracks. Kyle starts on the pole and is always a threat to run away with a race but hasn't shown the ability to here in his career. In fact, Larson only has two top 10 finishes in his last 8 races here and only 35 laps led in his entire career at Martinsville. While I don't expect Larson to mail it on Sunday, I think he will be more focused on Phoenix than anything else.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Xfinity 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!