LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - XFINITY 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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XFINITY 500🏁

The penultimate race of the season is upon us and four more driver’s are on the chopping block on Sunday. With a second playoff driver winning at Homestead last weekend, six drivers are fighting for two remaining championship race spots. Chris Buescher is currently the only driver in a must win position, but Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr are currently tied in the points standings and on the outside looking in. There is certainly the potential for chaos this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, VA for the XFINITY 500. The track is a 0.526 mile, flat, paperclip shaped oval. 500 laps will provide more than enough opportunities for some bumping and rubbing, and tempers are bound to flare by the end of the event. This should be one of the most intriguing races of the season so get ready for a good one.

Weather will not be a problem again this weekend. Mid-60s, sunshine, and zero chance of rain is exactly what we want to see.

_{On to Martinsville!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 500 laps will be run this week, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 450 laps should run under the green flag for 202.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Short tracks are a beast from a DFS perspective, and I think they got even harder when the new package was implemented. 500 laps provides an incredible amount of fantasy points, and missing one driver could ruin the entire slate. Passing is tough at short tracks, and dominators are the most important piece of the puzzle. Each of the last seven races at Martinsville has had two drivers that lead 100 or more laps, and twelve of those fourteen drivers ended up in the perfect lineup. Dominators almost exclusively start in the top 10 and generally include one driver from the front row. While neither of those two things is guaranteed, if we roster a front row driver and another driver starting in the top 10 in almost all of our lineups, we increase our chances of nailing at least one dominator. In tournaments we will need to capture both dominators if we want any chance of winning first place, but as long as we hit one of the two we should be able to make some money.

Place differential drivers are a strange thing at Martinsville because passing is difficult, but slip-ups happen, so when a driver misses a corner the entire field passes him, and he can’t recover. Therefore, the traditional attrition rate is low (meaning relatively few drivers DNF), but unforced errors can effectively end a race without putting the car in the garage. That was all an elaborate way of saying frontloaded lineups aren’t what we are looking for here because drivers can make big moves. Those big moves may not be attributed to a driver’s skill, but, just their ability to avoid making mistakes. Three drivers starting between 11-29 is around the right number to aim for this weekend. Sneaking a third top 10 driver is not the worst idea in high risk lineups, but in general a driver from the front row, a second driver from the top 10, and three drivers starting 11-29 is a solid way to start a build.

Oddly enough the bargain basement should be open this weekend. While none of these drivers are good enough to pull off a top 15 finish, there will be enough going on that a top 25 finish from an inexpensive driver should free up enough salary to make a lineup work better as a whole.

Stage 1: 130 Laps

Stage 2: 130 Laps

Stage 3: 240 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($10,700 DK, $12,500 FD)

Martin Truex Jr is starting on the pole this Sunday and has won at Martinsville three times in his last eight races here. He starts alongside his teammate Ty Gibbs, and while the entire world thinks Ty is on the precipice of his first win on the Cup level, I am convinced Truex may actually strangle him if Ty ends Truex’s season. This plays is entirely a starting position/track history recommendation. During practice Truex was abysmal, but I am willing to look passed that because clean air is king, and he should get some help from his teammate for at least the early portion of this race.

Kyle Busch ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD)

Busch was knocked out of the playoffs and is not a dominator but easily has the most place differential potential in the field. Kyle starts 31st one Sunday, which is not a familiar place for him but I expect Busch to make his way into the top 15 with ease. In practice on Saturday, Busch ran the 10th fastest single lap speed and also posted the fastest 20 lap average. We are getting Kyle at a relative discount this weekend, and any finish better than 14th should be able to pay off his salary.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

The third Joe Gibbs Toyota to start in the top 4, Hamlin is the second most likely dominator this weeknd in my opinion. Judging by practice, Denny seems to have a better can than Truex this weekend, and it is only a matter of time before he is challenging for the lead. Both drivers are tied for points and below the cut line for next week’s championship race. Denny has no problem leading laps at Martinsville, but he has not been able to win here since 2015. From a lineup construction standpoint, it will be very difficult to roster Hamlin, Truex, and Busch on Sunday. In high risk lineups I would prefer a Hamlin/Truex approach but in cash and single entry lineups I think pairing Busch’s floor with either Hamlin or Truex’s upside would be the best option.

Aric Almirola ($7,400 DK, $8,000 FD)

Is this track short? Yes. Is this track flat? Yes. Is Aric Almirola breathing? Yes. Alright, that’s all we need to know for our risky play of the week. Almirola is starting 12th on Sunday, and he is our short/flat specialist. There is a theme for the newsletter this weekend (which I hope doesn’t haunt us) because Almirola’s practice times weren’t the best, but his starting position makes him very tempting. Almirola has had four top 10 finishes in his last six races at Martinsville, a feat that he will only need to pick up two spots to accomplish on Sunday. Ironically enough, that is all he will need to do to also hit 5x value. This is by no means a cash safe play, but Almirola certainly offers top 10 potential at a discount for our tournament lineups.

Bargain Basement

Austin Cindric ($5,700 DK, $6,000 FD)

Cindric hit for us big time last weekend and got a price cut, so I am doubling up with him at Martinsville. Austin was lightning fast in practice on Saturday, turning in the 5th best single lap speed, and he was in the top 4 in 10,15, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages. He starts 21st on Sunday and only needs to pick up about three spots to pay off his salary, which is well within his range of outcomes considering his 11th place finish here in 2022.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($10,400 DK, $12,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,100 DK, $4,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Briscoe ($7,300 DK, $7,500 FD)

Briscoe starts 3rd on Sunday, and he dominated from a similar position (4th) in the Spring race this season. That was not a playoff race, however, and he was not surrounded by incredibly fast Toyotas. I refuse to believe Chase will be able to hold off all of these playoff drivers starting behind him, and I think he will fall out of the top 10 fairly quickly.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 14-47 (-21.05 u)

Chastain has been a silent menace at correlated tracks this season. He had top 5 finishes at Richmond and Dover. While he finished 13th here earlier this year, he also picked up 21 spots in the process, so he ran a great race. Starting 13th on Sunday, I love getting him at such a great number for a top 10.

Harvick has the best average finish at correlated tracks this season, and its not even close. Kes’s car has been strong all playoffs long, and Gibbs is part of the Toyota stable that dominated qualifying. This is a low key brutal group with theoretically nothing to race for, but I think Harvick is still looking to end his career with a bang.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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