LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Xfinity 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Xfinity 500 Cheatsheet

Xfinity 500🏁

We are still waiting for the Big One at Talladega this year, but that didn’t prevent a late caution from ruining my weekend. Chase Briscoe continues to laugh at me this season and managed to punch his ticket to the championship race, and now we are on to the penultimate event of the season. Six drivers are fighting for the final two championship spots when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, VA, for the Xfinity 500. The track is a 0.526-mile, flat, paperclip-shaped, asphalt-and-concrete mixture. There will be bumping, rubbing, and more than one temper tantrum over these 500 pressure cooker laps.

The weather may be the only thing these drivers need not worry about on Sunday. 60 degrees with a 10% chance of rain may be the best case scenario for a late October race in Virginia.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 500 laps will be run this week, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 440 laps should run under the green flag for 198 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Someone is going to lead a ton of laps. One dominator races are rare at Martinsville, so I don’t expect there to be a repeat of Hamlin’s Spring performance. I am anticipating at least two 100-lap leaders, with the possibility of a third driver scooping up around 80 laps. At least one dominator will come from the top 5, but after that, the field opens up to the entire top 20. My preferred approach in a situation like this is to lock in on a top 5 dominator, then hope our place differential drivers find themselves up front.

2) Front(ish) loaded lineups have been successful here. Three of the last four perfect lineups have featured 5 drivers starting in the top 22. Passing is possible, and drivers can make big moves, but don’t bet on miracles. Drivers starting in the top 20 pick up 10 spots and finish in the top 10. There is at most three drivers starting 25th or worse on Sunday with top 10 potential, drivers starting that far back will get lapped very quickly.

3) Punts can be hit or miss. As always, it’s all about expectations. Wedging one basement driver in a cash lineup will kill the ceiling, but we should be able to make it work. In tournaments, there is a very real chance that no basement driver will finish well enough to make the perfect lineup. I would limit it to one punt in about 40% of lineups if we are multi-building.

Stage 1: 130 Laps

Stage 2: 130 Laps

Stage 3: 240 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD): Blaney is one of the aforementioned drivers starting worse than 25th, with top-10 potential. He starts 31st on Sunday and is coming off of six straight top 11 finishes at Martinsville. He had a top-10 car in practice, so I am expecting Blaney to rack up the place differential.

Ryan Preece ($7,000 DK, $6,800 FD): Certain track types play right into Preece’s wheelhouse and short flats are definitely one of his favorite. Preece starts 18th on Sunday, which is way further forward than our typical cash driver. Remember our front-loading tactic. Ryan will only need a top 12 finish to hit value, and my model gives him a 37% chance to hit the top 10.

Bubba Wallace ($8,000 DK, $10,000 FD): Martinsville is not one of the tracks that immediately pops into mind when thinking about Bubba Wallace, but he actually has an average finish of 10th in his last six races here. Starting 21st, Wallace will have his work cut out for him on Sunday, but his car is lightning fast on the short run, and I love his chances to sneak into the top 10 by the end of the race.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD): I am wrong just about as many times about Larson as I am about Briscoe, just on the opposite side of the equation. Larson starts 3rd on Sunday, and I think he has the best chance of any top 5 driver of leading 100 laps. He is currently on a five-race top 5 streak at Martinsville, and I expect that to continue this weekend.

Chase Elliott ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD): Elliott is my model’s pick to be the winner, and it actually predicts him to lead about 21% of laps. Chase is currently in a must-win situation to keep his season alive, and had the best car in practice on Saturday. It may take some time for him to make his way up front, but I am expecting at least 100 laps led by Elliott on Sunday.

Austin Dillon ($6,700 DK, $6,500 FD): Dillon has had a forgettable season at best, but his upside on Sunday is intriguing. Austin starts 20th this weekend, right inside our target range, and has a projected ceiling of a 12th-place finish. While his practice times were miserable, I think he has a chance to hang on to his track position and possibly even improve over the 500 laps.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,500 DK, $6,200 FD): Allmendinger starts 33rd on Sunday and does not have an impressive history at Martinsville. He was, however, lightning fast in practice, and he should be able to sneak into at least the top 20. Any finish better than 18th should get ‘Dinger to hit tournament value, which is a perfect reason to make him the risky play of the week.

Bargain Basement

Erik Jones ($5,800 DK, $5,500 FD)

Jones starts 28th on Sunday despite having a top 20 car in practice. While he may be in danger of getting lapped early in the race, he is cheap enough that any finish in the top 20 should land him in the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD)

Ross Chastain ($9,000 DK, $8,500 FD)

Joey Logano ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Cole Custer ($5,300 DK, $4,500 FD)

A bit of a low-hanging fruit here, but I was almost tempted to recommend Custer, then remembered it was a terrible idea. Cole is dirt cheap, starts 6th on Sunday, and needs to hold on to a top 12 finish to hit value, a feat he has not been able to achieve over the past four years of races here.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 27-39 (5.65 u)

There is a significant disparity in starting positions among these playoff drivers. Logano starts 4th and has been known to drive a boat at short tracks, being nearly impossible to pass. Blaney, on the other hand, starts 31st and needs to cut through the entire field to save his season. My model projects this to be a very competitive H2H with Logano finishing 5th and Blaney finishing 6th.

We are keying in on underwhelming drivers again this Sunday. Busch and his team have not been able to get out of their own way all season, and I don’t foresee that changing this weekend, so a top 11 is out of the question. Keselowski starts 19th, and his practice times were miserable. Teammate Chris Buescher had similar trouble,s while Ryan Preece seems to have a decent handle on his car. Overall, I expect this to be 500 laps of treading water for Keselowski.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-13 (-2.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Xfinity 500 Cheatsheet

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