🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Xfinity 500🏁

Welcome to the penultimate race of the season and the final race of the round of eight. There are still three vacant spots in the Championship Four, and this Sunday's race will be the end of the road for four unlucky drivers. The Xfinity 500 will be run at Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA. The track is a 0.526 mile, paper clip shaped flat track with both concrete and asphalt surfaces. Like most short tracks, bumping and banging should be expected throughout the race and tempers are bound to flair up eventually. With so many driver's seasons in the balance, we should expect a very entertaining Sunday afternoon.

On to Martinsville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 440 laps should run under the green flag for 198 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Dominators are the name of the game at short tracks because 500 laps generate the most potential dominator points of the season. There have been at least two drivers that led more than 100 laps in eight of the last 10 Martinsville races, with two races having only one dominator and two races with three dominators. During that span, 19 of the 20 drivers that led more than 100 laps started in the top 10 (the one outlier started 14th), and 18 of those drivers ended up in the perfect lineup. Passing has been difficult at Martinsville historically, and the new car has not done short tracks any favors so we will want to lean towards front loaded lineups again this weekend. To win tournaments, we will need to soak up all of the dominator points, so rostering as many as three top 10 drivers will be a feasible strategy for big gpps. In cash a two dominator build is more reasonable because it limits our risk. Most of the top 10 is modestly priced, so we should not have to sacrifice the rest of our lineup to fit two dominators in. Three dominators will be tight but still feasible. Overall if we are building multiple lineups I wouldn't have three dominators in more than 20% of entries, the bulk of our builds should be the 2 dominator variety.

Stage 1: 130 laps, Stage 2: 130 laps, Stage 3: 240 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD)

Elliott is starting on the front row next to his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson, but I think Elliott is the most likely dominator of the race. Chase loves to lead laps at Martinsville, with three races of at least 185 laps led in his last four visits here. Compared to Larson, Elliott had a better single-lap speed and better 10, 15, and 20-lap averages in practice on Saturday. He also has a better average finish at Martinsville over the last 6 races and at similar tracks this season. Blaney looks to have ridden a rocketship to Virginia this weekend, but he has a hard time stringing together a bunch of laps led here for whatever reason. This is shaping up to be a three horse race on Sunday, but I think Elliott is the safest option of the pack.

Chris Buescher ($6,900 DK, $8,000 FD)

This is a bit of a thinner play than I would really like in the cash section but Buescher has been exceeding expectations all season, and I am looking for that to continue this weekend. Chris qualified 22nd and is the cheapest he has been in the last 6 races. Buescher has five top 15 finishes in his last six races at Martinsville and an average finish of 14.8 at similar tracks this season. He needs a top 15 to hit value and ran terribly in practice but I would rather trust his current form than a bad Saturday.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,400 DK, $12,500 FD)

I reeeeeeeeeally didn't want to write up Blaney this weekend, but every sign seems to point to him finding his way up front eventually. Martinsville dominators start in the top 10, and he starts 4th, he had the best 5, 10, 15 and 20 lap average in practice on Saturday, and he has the best average finish here over the last 7 races. I am truly concerned about Blaney's ability to lead more than 100 laps, that's why he isn't a foundational target, but I am definitely going to have a fair share of him on my tournament teams.

William Byron ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD)

I generally refrain from picking such a high priced driver as the risky play of the week. Still, it will be very hard to fit two top 10 dominators and Byron in the same lineup so he will have to rack up the fastest laps to outscore some of the higher-priced drivers starting further forward. Byron starts 25th on Sunday and is coming off of three straight top 5's here, which would net him at least 59 pts, but he will most likely need to score at least 80 pts to make the perfect lineup his work will still be cut out for him. William has a top 5 car, proven by his 5 and 10 lap averages, but we will still need him to run a near perfect race.

Bargain Basement

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

As much as I love writing Stenhouse up as a risky play when his price dips into the bargain basement, it is an extra special race. Stenhouse starts 31st and has had four top 20 finishes in his last six races here. His upside is undeniable, especially at this price, and I will load up on him this Sunday.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Martin Truex Jr ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD)

Aric Almirola ($7,000 DK, $7,800 FD) (He loves the short flats!!!)

Bubba Wallace $7,900 DK, $7,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daniel Suarez ($8,200 DK, $6,200 FD)

Suarez has been laughably bad at Martinsville over his last six races, with a top finish of 27th. He starts 7th on Sunday and didn't run a top 15 single lap time or any lap average. I know passing is going to be hard on Sunday but Suarez is destined to fall like a lead balloon.

Pitstop Picks

17-53 (-23.3 u)

Bell only has a positive place differential in two of his five races here and has a top finish of 7th. Chastain is starting 9th and finished 5th here this Spring. As long as Chastain runs a clean race, he should easily be favored here.

Larson, Elliott, and Chastain are my three favorite drivers here and they are all Chevys. Blaney could ruin the party, but overall I think this is a solid bet.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Xfinity 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!