LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Wurth 400 Presented by LIQUI MOLY

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Wurth 400 Cheatsheet

Wurth 400 Presented by LIQUI MOLY🏁

A “Big One”-less race at Talladega was not what we anticipated last weekend, but the strategy still paid off. The perfect lineup didn’t feature a driver that started in the top 15 and contained 5 drivers that started 25th or worse. Theoretically, this Sunday’s race should be calmer and more predictable when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX, for the Wurth 400 Presented by LIQUI MOLY. In practice, however, the 1.5-mile, moderately banked quad oval has been anything but predictable in the next-gen era due to massive tire issues and general variance.

There is literally zero rain in the forecast for Sunday afternoon, and temps should be in the low 80s. We couldn’t ask for a better race day.

_{On to Texas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 215 laps should run under the green flag for 96.75 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Dominators start up front. We are back at a cookie-cutter track, so dominators play a key role in lineup construction. The front row is where we should look for our single dominator. Besides that, many drivers can make their way up front, especially if this turns into a wreck fest. If we are going to get a driver that leads at least 100 laps, I would focus on the first two drivers (can expand to top 5 if you are feeling frisky).

2) Big moves are possible. With an average of 14 cautions per race in the next gen era, there is plenty of opportunity for passing. Don’t roster more than one top 10 driver, and they should be your dominator.

3) Finish in the top 10. Any driver we roster should have top 10 potential. Avoid any borderline drivers you don’t think can make significant moves.

4) The Bargain Basement is open. One inexpensive driver won’t kill your lineup, especially in cash, but they should still be able to finish in the top 15.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD): The entire slate will be won in this starting range, and my first pick is Elliott. He starts 29th, and had the 10th best 10 lap average. While he hasn’t been overly successful at this track, he consistently performs well at correlated tracks, indicating that he has been a victim of variance.

Joey Logano ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD): For some unknown reason, my model predicts Logano to win the race from the 27th place starting position, and I am going to roll with it. Joey always does well when everyone counts him out, so maybe this is his time to shine.

Brad Keselowski ($7,600 DK, $7,200 FD): Keselowski will be very popular this Sunday because he is cheap and has a fantastic track history. Three straight top 8 finishes and a 30th place starting position are a fantastic combination if you ask me.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD): Byron is starting on the front row. According to practice times, Carson Hocevar has a rocket ship, but he is Carson Hocevar, so I will always give the edge to Byron. His biggest threat to being the major dominator is actually Kyle Larson, but I think Byron should be able to lead the first part of the race pretty easily.

Ross Chastain ($8,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Chastain starts 31st but has two top 13 finishes in his last three races at Texas. He will provide salary relief compared to some of the big names starting around him, but I believe he has similar upside.

Ryan Preece ($7,000 DK, $6,200 FD): Preece starts 33rd on Sunday, and this is entirely a gut call. He is cheap enough that a top 20 finish would be serviceable, but I think he has top 10 potential at a very friendly price.

Chase Briscoe ($9,300 DK, $9,500 FD): Briscoe is super expensive and starts 22nd, which I expect to plummet his ownership. He has finished in the top 10 in each of the last three races here, and I think he can continue his streak on Sunday while flying way under the radar.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,900 DK, $3,800 FD)

Gilliland starts 32nd on Sunday and has not had great success here, but I expect that to change. He has a decent record at correlated tracks and is always a danger to pull off a surprise top 10.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Talladega that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

Kyle Busch ($8,800 DK, $8,500 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,200 DK, $4,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Carson Hocevar ($7,400 DK, $6,500 FD)

Hocevar has made a habit of capturing the pole and squanders it, and I will continue to fade him until he proves me wrong. His car seems to be a head and shoulders above everyone else, which is insane, but I refuse to trust that man.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 9-11 (5.35 u)

This bet looks insane on the surface, but Bubba actually leads the H2H here 2-1. They are starting 8th and 9th respectively, and they had similar practice times, so I really see this as more of a toss-up.

Alex Bowman’s best finish in the last three races is 12th, and Christopher Bell only has one finish better than 8.5 in the previous three races. Bowman is starting 11th and has no room for error here, while Bell is starting 16th and has to make a decent move. This race may devolve into chaos, so I love the unders.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-2 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the  Wurth 400 Cheatsheet

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