LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Wurth 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Wurth 400🏁

In a stunning turn of events, we almost had a Big One-less Talladega race last weekend. Last-second fireworks saved our day to a certain extent, but overall, NASCAR has been on a month-long stretch of poor racing. Everything is about to turn around this weekend, however, when the Cup Series travels to Dover Motor Speedway in Dover, DE for the Wurth 400. The “Monster Mile” is a 1.03 mile, banked, concrete oval. Although Dover is one of the shortest tracks on the circuit, it is known for its ability to showcase fast cars (similar to Michigan). The concrete surface has wracked havoc on tires over the last two seasons, causing an average of 10 cautions per race since the next gen car’s debut.

We couldn’t ask for better weather this Sunday in Dover. 80 degrees with a 2% chance of rain means Mother Nature is taking a break from ruining our weekend plans.

_{On to Dover!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 188 laps will be run this week, and 47 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 163 laps should run under the green flag for 73.35possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Weird things happen at Dover, which makes it a complete nightmare from a DFS perspective. 400 laps provide many dominator points, but any fast driver starting in the top 20 could potentially be the major dominator. The current short-track package has the stigma of making it impossible to pass, but tire issues continue to plague these races, enabling big moves and unpredictable results. Each of the last two races featured a main dominator that started in the top 10 and led more than 100 laps. The minor dominator led between 80-90 laps but did not win. I don’t think this can be called a trend yet, but the race winner in each of the last two races has been a tertiary dominator who led around 70 laps. None of these dominators started on the front row, and the two race winners started 4th and 17th, respectively. Someone is bound to lead a ton of laps on Sunday, but this is the type of race where we want to sprinkle our exposure to several drivers if we are playing multiple lineups in the hopes we capture 2/3 dominators in the same lineup and live to fight another day.

At its heart, the Monster Mile is still a short track, and those have been very hard to pass in the last two and a third seasons. Our general approach to these tracks is trying to front-load our lineups. To that point, ten of the twelve perfect lineup drivers over the last two races have started in the top 17. Our goal is to roster five drivers that finish in the top 10 with a positive place differential, and our one outlier shouldn’t finish outside the top 15.

So far, we need a front-loaded lineup with at least 2 dominators, leading us to our scariest requirement. The bargain basement will be open on Sunday, but we will need to be highly selective. We should be on the lookout for a low-priced driver, starting slightly more forward than we are comfortable with, who can finish in the top 15. This is an incredibly tall task, but we will need all the salary we can find to fit in two dominators, so we will have to take risks.

Stage 1: 120 Laps

Stage 2: 130 Laps

Stage 3: 150 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Christopher Bell ($10,500 DK, $11,500 FD)

Spending so much on a place differential driver may not be optimal for tournaments, but I will start my cash lineups with Bell on Sunday. Christopher starts 33rd on Sunday, but he was lightning quick in practice, posting top 10 five and ten-lap averages. He finished in the top 6 in each of the last two races at Dover and has an average finish of 12th at similar tracks since the beginning of 2023. Toyotas seemed to have figured out short tracks and I am looking for Bell to benefit from his teammate’s’ success.

Chris Buescher ($8,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Buescher has had considerable success at Dover since 2022, albeit with a negative place differential. Over the last two races here, Chris has an average finish of 8.5, and at similar tracks since the beginning of 2023, he has an average finish of 14.5. Buescher is starting 18th on Sunday, which makes him slightly riskier than our ideal cash play, but I like his top 10 potential and think he is one of the best plays in his price range.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($11,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

In my opinion, Byron vs Truex will be the decision of the slate. Truex has long been considered the King of Dover and rightfully deserved that title. Last year, there was a passing of the guard of sorts; however, with Byron emerging as the next dominant force, the Truex/Busch/Logano crowd started to fade slightly. William is less expensive on both sites this Sunday and starts 3rd (vs Truex’s 15th). Last season, Bryon dominated the race by leading 198 laps from his 8th place starting position, but it was Truex who took home the checkered flag, and both ended up in the perfect lineup. Due to their salaries, a similar situation will not likely play out this weekend so I am giving Byron the nod in the rematch.

Daniel Suarez ($6,700 DK, $6,200 FD)

I have no idea why my model likes Suarez so much this weekend, but I am willing to put my money where my mouth is. Daniel starts 31st on Sunday and was not impressive in practice. His race last year was cut short by an accident, but he finished in the top 14 in 2021-2022. Suarez has been much more successful at similar tracks over the last season, with an average finish of 15.8. While it may not be enough to make the perfect lineup, a top-15 finish would put up a massive score for his salary, and he will most definitely be low-owned.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,500 DK, $3,500 FD)

I mentioned playing a basement driver starting up front in the Lineup Construction section, but I wouldn’t feel right writing up one of those options because they are terrible. By my estimation, Gilliland starts 30th, giving him a safe floor and a reasonably high ceiling. I give Todd a 1/8 chance of finishing in the top 15, which would guarantee a spot in the perfect lineup. There are other ways for him to get there, but considering other options, Gilliland is clearly the top choice of the basement.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Dover that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,500 DK, $6,000 FD)

Chase Briscoe ($7,100 DK, $6,000 FD)

Ross Chastain ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD)

The pole position is snakebitten at Dover, and Busch hates everything related to this car, which is a match made in hell. Kyle starts first more often than you would think, and his top finish in those races is 8th. I expect Sunday to be another reason Busch hops on X and complains.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 7-11 (-2 u)

I am back on the plus money H2H grind. Buescher has a better average finish here in the last two races and the better starting position. Keselowski doesn’t move through traffic that well at Dover, so I expect him to get hung up in the teens for most of the race.

Bowman has five top 5 finishes in his last six races at Dover. Chastain has been better in the Next Generation, but his work will be cut out for him starting 22nd.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 4-6 (+5.5 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Wurth 400 Cheatsheet

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