LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Wurth 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Wurth 400🏁

Last weekend we almost got a “Big One”-less race at Talladega, to almost everyone’s surprise. This Sunday, however, NASCAR fans should be anticipating a much calmer affair (as long as the weather holds up) when the Cup Series travels to Dover Motor Speedway in Dover, DE for the Wurth 400. The Monster Mile is a 1 mile, steeply banked, concrete oval. The 2022 debacle notwithstanding, races at Dover are generally uneventful, which could be part of the reason why NASCAR took away the track’s fall race.

The most exciting part about this race may actually be the weather report. Part of practice and all of qualifying were rained out on Saturday and the race was moved up an hour due to inclement weather in the forecast Sunday afternoon. In all reality, this is looking like a Monday race.

_{On to Dover!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 360 laps should run under the green flag for 162 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Just like Richmond, a ton of laps are run at Dover and there is a relatively low incident rate. Unlike Richmond, for whatever reason, Dover is not nearly as predictable and is much harder to pass at. Naturally, our first order of business is to identify dominators. Generally speaking, we see two dominators at the Monster Mile, with one driver leading around 200 laps and another dominator that leads more than 100 laps. One dominator races are possible but we should build our lineups in anticipation of two dominators. The front row is a solid place to start looking for dominators, nine of the last twelve races featured a driver starting on the front row that led 100 or more laps and finished in the perfect lineup. The second dominator will most likely come from within the top 10 but drivers starting as far back as 17th have led more than 100 laps recently so taking a few tournament shots outside the top 10 would be a reasonable play.

This sounds completely preposterous but once we find our dominators, we will need to fill out our lineups with drivers that can pretty much produce any positive place differential. I know it sounds absurd but scrolling through the previous perfect lineups, some are front loaded with drivers that finish in the top 10, some are back loaded but the drivers only finished in the 20s and then there is a bit of a mix. The only real recommendation I can make is to zero in on the two dominators you want in a particular lineup then try to fit in drivers you think can pick up 5-ish spots. Some drivers might not even need to pick up 5 spots to make the perfect lineup but just about any positive place differential could put the driver in the running for the perfect lineup.

Since qualifying was rained out and last week was a superspeedway race, a bunch of the bargain basement drivers are starting way further forward than they should. I would avoid all of those drivers at all costs but there is a place for the reasonable bargain basement drivers and squeezing one of those in your lineup would not be the worst idea.

Stage 1: 120 Laps

Stage 2: 130 Laps

Stage 3: 150 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Joey Logano ($8,800 DK, $8,200 FD)

Logano is not the sexiest pick in the world but he will be popular due to his 26th place starting position. Like all things Logano, he has finished top 8 in five of the last seven races at Dover but has never dominated or won here. Passing is very tough here and there will not be many drivers that can make huge moves through the field so I think Logano will be incredibly useful in cash. Due to his ownership, however, you could make the argument that he is a nice tournament fade. If he spends his entire race stuck in traffic then he will essentially kill the 40% of lineups that he is on, which is an outcome that is not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Austin Dillon ($6,300 DK, $5,200 FD)

Dillon starts dead last this Sunday and is all but guaranteed positive place differential as long as he finishes the race. While I expect him to be near the most owned driver in cash, there is zero reason to fade him there. Austin has finished in the top 20 in six of the last seven races at Dover including two top 10 showings. A similar tournament argument can be made for him, however, because he will need to finish in the top 20 to pay off his salary. Dover is a shorter track so Dillion is at risk of going a lap down pretty quickly if he gets stuck behind some slower cars. That does not make me love him any less for cash though.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($9,600 DK, $9,500 FD)

Busch won at Talladega last weekend which put him on the pole this weekend at Dover. History tells us that a front row driver will more than likely be a dominator on Sunday and I think Kyle is my favorite option. Busch is a three time winner at the Monster Mile, most recently in 2017, and he has already proven this year that the change in team has not affected his ability to win. I think there is a very good chance Kyle leads the entire first stage and as long as he finishes in the top 5 he should be able to land in the perfect lineup.

Ty Gibbs ($7,100 DK, $6,800 FD)

Gibbs is not a dominator, or a bargain basement driver, but I think he does bring tournament winning upside to a lineup that will go overlooked. Starting 24th, there are not many drivers in his range that have top 10 potential and that is what separates him from the pack. A fourteen place move would be a monster at this track and that would more than pay off his salary. There are much slower cars starting in front of him so as long as he stays clean he should at least sneak into the top 20. Overally, I expect most eyes to be focused on other drivers starting near him so that leaves us with an opportunity to take a risk in tournaments with Gibbs.

Bargain Basement

Harrison Burton ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD)

Burton starts 31st and has proven this season that top 25 finishes are not out of reach. Last season he finished 24th here while picking up 11 spots. While I don’t expect a repeat performance any top 25 finish should put him in contention of the winning lineup.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Dover that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Brad Keselowski ($8,400 DK, $8,000 FD)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000 DK, $10,500 FD)

AJ Allmendinger ($6,000 DK, $4,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($8,600 DK, $9,000 FD)

Blaney can’t get out of his own way at Dover. He starts third this weekend and hasn’t finished in the top 10 here since 2018. Ryan is no stranger to starting well here but he has not been able to make that translate to anything that even remotely resembles success.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 6-10 (-0.65 u)

Another week with a ton of plus money H2Hs but this is probably my favorite. Briscoe and Buescher will start side by side and this will be a bet about who will fall back less. Briscoe has legitimate top 10 potential while Buescher only has one top 10 finish here in 12 tries. This should be even money at worst.

This is the type of race where Keselowski excels. Passing will be hard and he starts in the top 10. He is one borderline insane pit strategy call from the leadership position and if he is in contention towards the end of the race I expect him to think outside the box to get to the front.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 2-2 (1.65 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Wurth 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!Noco