🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Wise Power 400 🏁

The spectacle of Daytona speed week is finally over and it did not disappoint. The grind of a 36 race season starts this week as NASCAR travels cross country to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, CA for the Power Wise 400. Don't worry though, NASCAR did not leave the fireworks in Florida judging by the insanity that took place during practice and qualifying. The track is a 2 mile, minimally banked, D-shaped oval that shreds tires. This is the first time these next-generation cars will be featured in a full-length, non-superspeedway race, and it's becoming fairly apparent that we have no idea what to expect on Sunday. Unfortunately, several drivers had issues during inspections and practice so the field is fairly jumbled. Also, the drivers have mentioned over the past few days that previous track history is more or less useless because the car is vastly different this year (we will have to see how this plays out in real life). Overall I am expecting this race to be just as unpredictable as last week, without a Big One to take out half the field.

On to Auto Club!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 180 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 81 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This is the second week in a row we get a 200 lap race, but this time dominators will be a factor (maybe?). In each of the last five races here, there has been one major dominator that led more than 100 laps and each of those dominators started in the top 4. Practice didn't really help us determine how difficult passing will be so there is the potential that a fast car gets out front and just checks out. The other possibility is the general unpredictability of this new car is going to rear its ugly head. Including qualifying, ten drivers had some sort of issue on the track on Saturday (some worse than others) and there is a chance that trend continues, making this a race of attrition. Previous races have had a secondary dominator that led around 50 laps, but that driver started as far back as 16th. For this race I think a 2 dominator approach will be optimal with two drivers, one starting in the top 4 and another starting in the top 15.

The place differential drivers is where it is going to get interesting. There are some very good drivers starting in the rear due to practice issues. I think salary is going to be very tight and we will only be able to roster two drivers starting in the rear and then two lower priced drivers that are starting a little further up than we are accustomed to. In previous races, good drivers starting in the rear were able to make their way through the field. Depending on how the second dominator finishes, a high priced place differential driver could score more points than the second dominator so an argument could be made to play a one dominator lineup in cash and load up with place differential drivers.

Stage 1: 65 laps, Stage 2: 65 laps, Stage 3: 70 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($9,200 DK, $9,700 FD)

The two studs starting in the rear on Sunday are Kevin Harvick (P 32) and Kurt Busch (P36). Busch, however, will have to serve a pass-through penalty on the first lap so he will be at a significant disadvantage. There is a chance that Busch gets lapped quickly but if this race is chaotic early and he catches a lucky caution, he will be off to the races. Now that was a lot about Kurt Busch in a Kevin Harvick write but I wanted to lay out some of the possible scenarios. Harvick has a love/hate relationship with Auto Club with four top 9 finishes here in the last six races and also a 35th place finish. Even on a down year, Harvick was very good at similar tracks last season and his lack of laps led here will not be an issue because all we need him to do is make his way through the field. Harvick is one of the drivers who mentioned that previous success will not translate to the next generation car but I would rather take a risk on a good driver in a better situation than an unproven driver doing things he's never done before.

Bubba Wallace ($7,000 DK, $6,000 FD)

Wallace had a fast car in practice but ran into trouble late and wasn't able to post a qualifying time. If his crew is able to restore the car to its pre-crash form, Wallace should be able to slice through about ten cars in front of him pretty easily from his 34th place starting position. Wallace has struggled historically at Auto Club with a negative place differential in all three of his Cup races here but he does have a 20th place finish which would be just about enough to pay off his salary.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,400 DK, $13,000 FD)

Busch starts 3rd on Sunday and is coming off of three straight top 3 finishes at Auto Club including a win and two races with more than 64 laps led. Kyle has had a rough almost two seasons without practice but looks to return to his winning ways now that practice is back. It will be very interesting to see if Busch will be able to pass Jones and Cindric, who start in front of him because he had a much better car in practice and is a much more experienced driver. If he is able to get up front it will not be smooth sailing, however, because Denny Hamlin will be starting right beside Busch and they could be battling all race for the lead.

Christopher Bell ($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD)

Christopher Bell is starting 19th on Sunday and could possibly be an under owned tournament target. Bell's Cup history here is terrible, with a 38th place finish in one race but he had some success in the Xfinity series with a top finish of 3rd in two tries. Bell ran very well at similar tracks last season and had the 9th best single lap time in practice this weekend. He is not cheap and is starting in the middle of the field so I am hoping people skip right over him on Sunday because if he can make his way into the top 10, Bell should be able to make the perfect lineup with ease.

Bargain Basement

Corie Lajoie ($5,100 DK, $3,000 FD)

The bargain basement is a mess this weekend and depending on Lajoie to pay off his salary from the 25th starting position is a big ask. Most of the drivers in his price range are bound to lose spots and Lajoie has at least a fighting chance to pay off his salary by picking up 4 spots.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Auto Club that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Tyler Reddick ($8,400 DK, $9,500 FD)

Alex Bowman ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD)

Aric Almirola ($7,400 DK, $6,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Erik Jones ($6,400 DK, $5,000 FD)

Jones is starting 2nd on Sunday and I expect him to be completely over his head. Cindric is in a fast car starting in front of him and there are some serious players starting in the top 10. The only other driver I expect to lose spots faster than Jones is Daniel Hemric and I wouldn't be opposed to fading him too.

Pitstop Picks

The bonus pick on Twitter gave us a 2-1 edge last week for a 2.7 unit profit.

There are not a ton of options on DK at the moment but I still love this bet. Byron has three straight 15th place finishes here and Bowman has two top 13 finishes in his last three races here, including a win. They also have a nearly identical average finish at similar tracks last season. You can check out the cheatsheet for all of my personal projections but I have Bowman as having a higher projected finish, a higher average projected finish, and a higher top finish.

Tough lines again this week for top 10s and 20s but I did find a solid top 5 line worth a look. Keselowski starts 9th on Sunday and is coming off of three straight top 5 finishes at Auto Club. I don't expect his move to RFK racing (which he now owns) to cause a significant downgrade in equipment so he should be well fitted to continue his success.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Wise Power 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!