LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Viva Mexico 250

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Viva Mexico 250 Cheatsheet

Viva Mexico 250🏁

Happy Father’s Day, everyone! Hopefull,y we can add a big win to a day full of relaxing with family.

Michigan had a little bit of everything with green flag lead changes, cautions, and eventually pit strategy. This Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series is traveling South of the Border for the first time in series history for the Viva Mexico 250, which is being held in Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City, Mexico. The track is a 15-turn, 2.42-mile road course featuring a stadium entry, a long straightaway, and several tricky corners. Additionally, I am sure we will hear about the track being located 7,343 feet above sea level, which puts stress on both drivers and cars.

To add to our stress, there is no data on this track because the Cup Series has never run here. While some older drivers have run Xfinity races here in the 2000s, none of that is useful. I am running the same model I used for COTA earlier this year as the baseline for my projections.

To add an extra layer of fun this weekend there is a slight chance of rain on Sunday. Since this is a road course, we will have rain tires, so the race isn’t at risk of being moved, but it is still another factor we will need to take into consideration.

_{On to Mexico!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 100 laps will be run this week, and 25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 93 laps should run under the green flag for 41.85 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) It’s all about track position. In the Next Gen Era, passing has been extremely difficult at road courses. Pit strategy is generally the name of the game, and with the reintroduction of stage breaks, short pitting stages are always an option. Front-loaded lineups may very well be the key to this race.

2) Forget about dominators. Although we don’t have any historical data, we can still examine previous road races. There are only 25 lap-led points available for the entire race, so there is no reason to waste time focusing on any of them.

3) Weather could be a major factor. No, rain will not shorten the race, but if we front-load lineups and it turns into a sloppy wreckfest, we are in trouble. In cash games I would mix in a couple “safer” picks starting in the rear but in tournaments I think we have to take our chances.

4) Spread the love. To account for all of the uncertainty, I would spread my ownership around if you were multi-entering. We can still front-load our lineups, but let's not fall in love with any specific drivers, and if we want to take chances, maybe roster a driver starting up front that we wouldn’t normally instead of praying a back marker will move up due to attrition.

Stage 1: 20 Laps

Stage 2: 25 Laps

Stage 3: 55 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Christopher Bell ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD): I am very well aware I said front-loaded lineups are key, but Bell is starting 31st and won at Cota earlier this year. He has a top-10 car, the ability to pick up spots, and a low but safe floor. There is zero chance I am playing him in qualifiers because he will be the highest-owned driver, but he is a must-play in cash games.

Brad Keselowski ($6,600 DK, $6,000 FD): Keselowski makes a habit of qualifying poorly at road courses and finishing slightly less poorly. Starting 30th on Sunday, I’m pretty positive all hell will have to break loose for Brad to land in the top 10 but due to his low price a top 20 will be good enough for cash.

Tyler Reddick ($9,700 DK, $13,500 FD): Reddick is usually a driver who qualifies well and slips back during road races. An average finish of 10.75 isn’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but a -5.25 place differential is less than ideal. I still think Reddick has considerable upside from his 22nd place starting position, and I think he has the best chance of the three to finish in the top 10.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD): Elliott is an accomplished road racer; he starts 12th and had the 6th-best 5-lap average in practice 1. My model projects him to finish 2nd with race-winning upside. None of these picks make me feel great, but I think Chase is a fantastic tournament option.

Chris Buescher ($8,400 DK, $10,000 FD): Buescher starts 16th on Sunday but has an average finish of 4.75 at road courses since the beginning of 2024. What is more impressive is his average positive place differential of 18.75 places. I know there aren’t even 18 spots for him to gain on Sunday, but I love Buescher’s chances of a top 10.

Joey Logano ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD): This is where we are going to get a little funky. Logano has a knack for winning at first-time tracks, and well, this is the first time they are running this circuit. I know my analysis should go deeper than that, but sometimes narrative street takes over.

Alex Bowman ($7,700 DK, $8,200 FD): Speaking of narrative street, remember when Bowman won a street course race in the rain? I do! And that’s enough for me to make him the risky pick of the week. Bowman is cheap and starts 29th, he also has an average road race finish of 11th. The Chicago street race is not factored into that average, but either way, history has the potential of repeating itself on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Riley Herbst ($5,300 DK, $3,000 FD)

I cannot remember the last time I suggested Herbst, and I am positive it was never when we were starting 15th, but here we are. He actually had a top ten 5 lap average in practice 1, so as long as he can maintain his starting position, he could be a very valuable piece to the puzzle.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Mexico that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($8,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

Chase Briscoe ($7,900 DK, $7,800 FD)

Carson Hocevar ($7,500 DK, $8,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Preece ($6,500 DK, $5,200 FD)

Preece is starting on the front row with SVG. He has surprised a lot of people this season with a string of great finishes on cookie-cutter tracks, but on Sunday’s road course, I fear he has nowhere to go but backwards.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 14-14 (9.6 u)

Allmendinger is known as a road ringer, but I love fading him. He has an average finish of 19.5 at road tracks since the beginning of last season and a place differential of -8.75. Busch is having a tough season and a half, but road races have been his only bright spot. They start 8th and 11th, respectively, and I expect Busch to win by a spot or two.

I am continuing the Allmendinger fade; we need him to fall four spots. Hocevar has run incredibly well the last couple of races, but last-second mishaps have prevented him from turning them into good finishes. Carson starts 23rd, which means he has to make a big move to crack the top 10, and I don’t love the chances of that happening.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 2-2 (0.38 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Viva Mexico 250 Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!