Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Verizon 200 at the Brickyard 🏁

This Sunday we get the second leg of back-to-back road courses and our last "new" track of the season as NASCAR travels to Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Speedway, IN for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard. For the first time in it's history, the Cup series will run the 2.44 mile, 14 turn infield course. Xfinity ran this track last season so some drivers have some laps under their belts but there was practice on Saturday and there will be qualifying on Sunday so everyone will be able to get somewhat familiar with the layout. Like every other same day qualifying race, I will not know the starting lineup before releasing the Pitstop so everything could change Sunday morning. Depending on life, I will post updates in chat and may be able to crank out a quick video on Twitch/Twitter for those interested.

On to Indy!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 82 laps will be run this and 20.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 70 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 31.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

I mentioned this in the intro but I will reiterate it here. This weekend there will be same-day qualifying starting Sunday morning at 9 am. I hate writing these without knowing the starting lineup but we have to make due so be on the lookout for some updates via chat and possibly a Twitch/Twitter video.

A strategy I have recommended for previous same day qualifying race is to do your research Saturday night and have a target starting position in mind for the drivers you are interested in. If a driver you like qualifies within that range, load up on them and keep it moving. This will cut down on most of the stress associated with building lineups in a short amount of time.

Finally, lets talk about strategy. This is the unprecedented sixth road race of the season, so we should have a good understanding of how these things work. We have eight fewer laps this week compared to last week and therefore an even more limited amount of dominator points. We actually saw two dominators last weekend and three studs ended up in the perfect lineup. Overall I expect one dominator to be more likely considering the fact that these teams will be able to tweak their car during practice and no competition caution will prevent the field from bunching up artificially. We will want to focus on drivers who finish well, but may not make big moves. Ideally we are looking for at least 5 drivers that finish in the top 15 (including the race winner) and a sixth driver that can pick up at least five spots and round out our lineup.

Stage 1: 15 laps, Stage 2: 20 laps, Stage 3: 47 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Chase resumes his rightful spot as the highest priced driver on both sites this weekend. He is hands-down the best road racer in the field right now and proved it once again last Sunday when he drove through the field twice on his way to a second place finish. Chase has won both road races this season that had same day qualifying (COTA and Road America) and has a top-two finish in eight of the last nine road races overall. Chase is in a league of his own right now and will be a cornerstone of any cash team on Sunday,

Ideal starting position: Anywhere, USA

Kyle Busch ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD)

If we are looking to mimic the stars and scrub lineup from last week, Busch has been impressively consistent at non-Roval road courses and is only the fourth highest-priced driver on both sites. It is no secret that Busch fares much better when he gets to practice before a race and he has proven that again this season with two top 10 finishes at the two road courses with practice. He also has four top 10 finishes this season at non-Roval road courses and has finished in the top 11 in each of his last fourteen non-Rovals. Busch has some ugly finishes at Charlotte and Daytona that will scare people away but I believe he is one of the safest options in the field.

Ideal starting position: 10+

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD)

Again not the sexy choice but Larson is the second most likely driver to dominate the race and win so I will relegate him to a tournament target. Larson is the only driver who has matched Elliott step for step on the road this year with two wins and a (controversial) second place finish. He is another fast driver with a good track-type history who will be racing hard because he is in contention for the regular season championship. Larson will be popular on Sunday, and rightfully so, but I like him as a tournament pivot off of Chase at a lower price and ownership.

Ideal starting position: 5+

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,900 DK, $4,500 FD)

God help me but I like Ricky on Sunday. His price is too much for me to get over because there is no one in his range with his raw ceiling (and to be fair crushingly low floor). Stenhouse is the type of uncomfortable driver that makes it onto the perfect lineup of a road race, he can starting 18th and finish 12th and do just enough to put up a decent score. Sure he will get loose a few times and may even end up in the dirt but he has shown resilience all season with three top 20 finishes at road races, including a 12th place finish at Road America. Stenhouse may not crack the top 10 but at his salary, he doesn't need to, just a solid race with positive place differential could put him on his way to a big day.

Ideal starting position: 18+

Ross Chastain ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD)

Chastain is a much better road racer than he gets credit for and I think his salary will be enough to scare people away. He has three top 10s this season at road courses, all with positive place differential, including the two with same day qualifying. I expect Ross to qualify around 10th and finish around 6th, making him waaaaaaay to risky for most peoples' tastes but a perfect driver to give you leverage from the field. This is could be one of the riskiest calls on the season but it could pay dividends if it hits.

Ideal starting position: 9-12

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,600 DK, $3,500 FD)

I honestly like the idea of rolling with Preece again this race but I think Lajoie has a similar ceiling and less of a chance of qualifying well. Corey has four straight top 24 finishes at road courses with a positive place differential in all four. If we want to cram in studs we will need to save money anywhere we can and I think a Lajoie/Stenhouse stack can really give us a ton of wiggle room.

Ideal starting position: 30+

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Indy that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Austin Dillon ($6,300 DK, $5,500 FD) Ideal starting position: 20+

AJ Allmendinger ($8,800 DK, $10,500 FD) Ideal starting position: 10+

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400 DK, $13,000 FD) Ideal starting position: 7+

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney($8,600 DK, $8,700 FD)

Blaney has garnered some credibility as a good road racer and even won on the ROVAL but he has not been good this season. Ryan has one top 10 finish this year on road courses and a negative place diff in three of those races this year. We are going to be looking for drivers that start well and finish well but I think Blaney will start in the top 10 and fall back.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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