LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Verizon 200 at the Brickyard

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x2) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Verizon 200🏁

As predicted, Mother Nature threw a wrench in NASCAR’s plans last weekend, but to most people’s surprise, Monday’s result was much different than expected after Sunday. Luckily, we will be in the land of right-hand turns, rain tires, and windshield wipers as the Cup Series travels to the Indianapolis Grand Prix Circuit in Speedway, Indiana, for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard. The track is a 2.439 mile, 14-turn road course that utilizes the front stretch, two corners, and infield of the standard Indianapolis quad-oval. I don’t really consider this track a Roval because the corners aren’t banked, so I think this track races closer to a standard road track. Track history is a bit sketchy here so far because both Cup races come with major asterisks. Still, as a general rule of thumb, the drivers that excel at traditional road courses tend to run well here (even if they don’t have the best finishing positions).

While the drivers can race in weather this weekend, the forecast is fairly friendly. I don’t anticipate rain delays, or Monday finishes this weekend.

_{On to the Indy Road Course!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 82 laps will be run this week, and 20.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 67 laps should run under the green flag for 33.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

This is the second shortest race of the season, behind the Chicago Road Race, so dominators are not as important as they are at other tracks. With only 82 laps scheduled for Sunday, the finishing position will be the most important consideration. As I mentioned earlier, previous results may be a little misleading because both races devolved into utter chaos so drivers were able to make massive moves. Some trends we have seen with the new aero package, especially since they have eliminated the stage breaks, is passing is incredibly tough at road courses. I think the key to success in tournaments this weekend is finding at least 5 drivers that will finish in the top 10 and a 6th driver that will finish in the top 15. Pricing looks significantly softer than most weeks so I don’t think it will be too difficult to fit drivers with top 10 potential into our lineups. While I completely understand loading up on drivers starting 20th or worse in cash games and hoping they pick up enough spots to hit value, in tournaments I think it will be frontloaded lineups that win the big money.

In tournament builds, I wouldn’t abandon the idea of rostering at least one dominator entirely. Since the discontinuation of the stage break, it has become much easier for a driver to lead a significant portion of laps. I expect passing to be so tricky, so I project a top 3 driver to be the major dominator on Sunday, the key is to find a driver that we think can lead laps and finish well because 30 laps led won’t mean anything if they fall outside the top 10.

The bargain basement will be open and I am actually in favor of taking a few shots on drivers that are starting way over their head because if this race plays out like the previous two true road races they will be able to hold on to their spots with relative ease. At a cookie cutter track I would cringe at the idea of rostering a basement driver starting in the top 15, this weekend it might not be the worst idea.

Stage 1: 15 Laps

Stage 2: 20 Laps

Stage 3: 45 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

AJ Allmendinger ($9,300 DK, $10,500 FD)

Allmendinger has forever been known as a road ringer and I have consistently faded him when he was a fan favorite. This weekend, from his starting position of 26, I am all in on AJ in cash. While he has an average finish of 4th here in the first two races, his average running position of 10.5 suggests he was running well before all hell broke loose. Allmendinger turned in the 11th best single laps speed in practice on Saturday and had a 6th place finish at Sonoma in June. I love ‘Dinger’s top-10 potential, no matter how this race plays out.

Erik Jones ($6,300 DK, $3,500 FD)

Jones is one of a handful of drivers that I think are grossly mispriced this weekend and he is particularly underpriced on FD. While Erik starts 36th on Sunday, he has an average finish of 11th here with an average positive place differential of 20.5. Any finish better than 22nd will land Jones in 5x value territory, and I think he has a top 15 ceiling which is excellent considering his price tag.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

I am calling my shot, Elliott is in a borderline do-or-die playoff situation, and he will win at Indy to stamp his ticket into the playoffs. Elliott starts 3rd on Sunday and has two formidable road racers starting in front of him in Suarez and Reddick, but I believe over the course of 82 laps Elliott will be able to come out on top. One of the best road racers on in the Cup Series, Elliott has a 10th place average finish in the two races here but an 8th place average running position, suggestion he was a bit of a victim of tough luck. The number 9 team is going to give it all on Sunday, and I like his chances of coming out on top.

Bubba Wallace ($6,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

Wallace is another driver that I think is grossly mispriced, but he does not come with the safety of a Jones or Stenhouse Jr. Starting 19th, Bubba is a legitimate top 10 threat. Over the last two races here, he has an average finish of 9th and an average positive place differential of 14. His average run position of 16 suggests he has been fairly lucky in his recent success, but I still think Wallace provides considerable tournament upside at a discount.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,200 DK, $3,000 FD)

It is not often that a bargain basement driver STARTS at value and I still contemplate rostering them, but LaJoie deserves his 14th place starting position, and I actually think he can improve on it. As long as Corey doesn’t finish outside the top 16, he will hit value, and I think passing will be so difficult he could actually have a ceiling of 10-12 which would be more than enough to finish in the perfect lineup.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Indy that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,500 DK, $3,000 FD)

Austin Cindric ($8,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

William Byron ($8,900 DK, $8,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Shane Van Gisbergen ($10,100 DK, $11,000 FD)

While everyone loves a Cinderella story, I’m not interested in chasing one. I liked Shane to win Chicago, and he did, but I think everyone will want to roster him this weekend, and I think his win was specific to that track. NASCAR is not kind to drivers that come over from different series, and even though he had success in the Cup Series debut, I highly doubt he will be able to repeat, and considering his price and 8th place finishing position, there is way more risk than he is worth.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 10-30 (-12.25 u)

I don’t enjoy playing big favorite sin H2Hs but Buescher is riding a two race win streak and I am not expecting that to continue. While Truex is consistently in the hunt for a win, I think Buescher is due for a bit of regression, and I will take almost any bet against him this weekend.

This is a matchup of the two race favorites, and I expected it to be at even money. While I expect both driver to be within striking distance of each other for most of the race. I think Elliott will ultimately come out victorious.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-3 (3.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

No poll this week, the sportsbooks are slacking

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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