LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - USA Today 301

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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USA Today 301🏁

The inaugural Cup Series race at Iowa Speedway left everything on the table and was one of the best short track races in the Next Gen Era. NASCAR is looking to continue its run of excellent races when it brings its traveling circus to New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH, for the USA Today 301. The track is a 1.058 mile flat oval. As we have seen at all of the other short tracks over the last two seasons, passing is going to be very difficult at Loudon and track position is going to be key throughout this race.

The weather may be the biggest storyline going into this weekend. There is around a 75% chance of rain on Sunday and a 50% chance of rain in the early afternoon on Monday. While a Monday finish is the most likely outcome, there is no telling when they will officially postpone the race, so I would suggest having our lineups ready for the original start time. If we are graced with a little extra time to tinker, we can look at it as a bonus.

_{On to Loudon!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 301 laps will be run this week, and 75.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 255 laps should run under the green flag for 114.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Loudon is a strange track because it is short and flat, but the race features only a handful more laps than the standard 1.5-mile cookie cutter (301 vs. 267). The last two races here have only had one major dominator each, and both of those drivers started in the front row. Track position continues to be paramount at these smaller venues, and New Hampshire may be the last of the single dominator events. While there was only one driver who led more than 200 laps in each of the last two races, both perfect lineups had four drivers starting in the top 13. This makes me think we need to take multiple stabs at the dominator, and even if we miss, as long as our drivers finish in the top 10, they can still be useful.

Our place differential drivers are in a tough spot this weekend because we need them to finish in the top 10. Now, if we roster four drivers starting in the top 15ish, that doesn’t leave a ton of room for place differential drivers. Starting/finishing position is the most important attribute we can look at this week, so place diff has to take a back seat. Big moves are a possibility for fast drivers, so we shouldn’t be scared of placing differential drivers, but we need to keep our target finishing position of 10th or better in mind.

This is an even worse week for basement drivers. The last time a driver made the perfect lineup with a salary under $6,000 was the August 2020 race, and I don’t expect Sunday’s race to change that trend.

Stage 1: 70 Laps

Stage 2: 115 Laps

Stage 3: 116 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brad Keselowski ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD)

My cash plays tend to be good drivers that slip up during qualifying and provide a solid floor. Keselowski checks none of those boxes this Sunday. Brad had great practice and solid qualifying run, landing him in the 9th place starting position. He is riding a four race top 10 streak with positive place differential at Loudon, including a win. Keselowski does not profile as a possible dominator, so his ceiling is a bit limited, but I think he should be a cornerstone piece to our cash lineups.

Chase Briscoe ($7,200 DK, $6,800 FD)

Briscoe is one of the few drivers that have consistently shown the ability to make a big moves at Loudon in the next-gen era. Chase starts 23rd on Sunday, which is his best starting position since 2021. Admittedly, his practice times weren’t stellar, but I won’t be putting too much stock in practice in general this weekend. While I am worried about his ceiling in tournaments, I believe a top-15 finish is well within reason, and that should be more than enough to make Briscoe a viable cash-game option.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,200 DK, $10,500 FD)

Starting on the front row has proven to be very helpful at Loudon over the last two races, so naturally, my top two dominator options are Elliott and Blaney. Elliott has the edge this season at similar tracks with three top 5 finishes. He starts on the pole this Sunday and has had success at Loudon in the past, including a second-place finish in 2022. Chase has finally returned to his old form, and a statement win this weekend would catapult him into the championship conversation.

Bubba Wallace ($7,500 DK, $7,800 FD)

I still can’t figure out why my model is so high on Wallace, but I am rolling with it this weekend. Bubba starts 17th on Sunday and comes off two straight top-8 finishes at Loudon. Those results may be a little skewed because they came from top 8 starting positions, essentially he finished right around where he started. Wallace needs to pick up spots for him to be useful to us in this race, and a top-10 finish is our goal. My simulation model gives him a 100% top 10 percentage, which is obviously unrealistic, but even if the real number is about 30%, that should be enough to land Bubba in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

John H Nemechek ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

I hate everyone in this range and am seriously considering a full fade. IF I HAD to pick someone in this price range, Nemechek provides some upside from his 28th starting position. I don’t expect him to blow this race out of the water but he could mosey up to 20th which probably won’t be enough to make the perfect lineup but it would still be a respectable result.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Loudon that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Joey Logano ($9,800 DK, $11,500 FD)

Kyle Larson ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

Austin Dinnol ($6,200 DK, $4,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Alex Bowman ($8,200 DK, $7,200 FD)

Bowman starts 5th on Sunday and my model does not like him at all. He has lost spots in two of his last three races at Loudon and only has one top 10 finish here in his career despite three top 10 starts. There are some very fast cars starting right behind him and they are driven by drivers with a better track record. The only direction I think Bowman will go this weekend is backward.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 12-20 (-4.35 u)

Berry would still be the odd man out if we were to play which one of these is not like the others in this second-tier group. It seems like he has taken over Almirola’s affinity for short flat tracks in the SHR garage, and that is exactly what we are banking on this Sunday.

Plus, money H2Hs have been our bread and butter this season, and we get another good one on Sunday. Blaney starts on the front row at a track where track position position is king but he tends to be fairly boom or bust at Loudon with two starts in the top 11 but two finishes outside the top 15. I think a top-10 finish wins this matchup for Larson, and I project that to be his floor.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 8-8 (+11.2 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the USA Today 301 cheatsheet

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