Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Toyota/Save Mart 350 🏁

Summer is quickly approaching and the NASCAR season keeps rolling on as the Cup Series makes its first trip in almost two years to Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, CA for the Toyota Save Mart 350. One of the two "traditional" road courses that will be run this season, Sonoma is a 12 turn, 2.52-mile road hilly road course that has been a Cup Series staple for years. This does not mean it predictable, however, and the perfect way to set up this weekend's race was a simple tweet by Anthony Alfredo from Friday "Going to @RaceSonoma for the first time ever with zero practice. My first laps on track will be green flag of the cup race. Being a rookie these days is wild." He will not be the only driver going into Sunday's race blind, this will be the first time NASCAR will bring the high HP, low downforce package to Sonoma while racing the carousel, which will add just a little extra anguish. Weather should not be a major issue but nothing is guaranteed (I'm looking at you COTA)

On to Charlotte!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week,90 laps will be run this and 22.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 85 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 38.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

There is one good thing about having two road races very close together, the strategy should be fresh in our mind. This race will be a little longer than COTA and the Daytona Road Course but the same principles still apply, with a small tweak. Finishing position is still paramount on Sunday, while we should focus on one to two dominator lineups. We will want to focus our efforts on constructing lineups that feature at least five drivers that can finish in the top 10 with a positive place differential. If one of those drivers ends up leading laps that is great but we really need to hone in on drivers that can finish in the top 10. The bargain basement can use useful on Sunday also, which we don't normally see at road races. Three of the last four races featured a low priced driver that finished outside the top 15 with positive place differential. These drivers will still need to make a sizeable move but they should not just be written off like some weeks.

This is another reminder that front loading lineups at road courses is not a bad idea. I explained the concept in detail during the COTA newsletter but the quick synopsis is this: while a driver that starts 28th and finishes 17th looks like they had an impressive race they will actually score fewer DK points than a driver that starts 12th and finishes 9th. Place differential points are flashy but we should focus on drivers we think can finish well even if they don't pick up a ton of spots.

Stage 1: 20 laps, Stage 2: 20 laps, Stage 3: 50 laps

Comp Caution: Lap 10

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($10,900 DK, $14,000 FD)

I apologize for sounding like a broken record here but Truex is very good at Sonoma and is starting 19th, which makes him a cash game lock. The winner of the two previous races at Sonoma, Truex is no stranger to leading laps here either, with at least 25 laps led in each of the last three races here. I believe he got his road course variance out of the way with his accident at COTA two weeks ago so he should be a lock and load option for Sunday. Truex has a ton of place differential on Sunday and a legitimate chance to lead at least some laps which makes him great for both cash and gpps.

Kurt Busch ($9,100 DK, $8,500 FD)

Kurt Busch is another driver with astronomical place differential potential due to his starting position of 30th. Kurt is going to be massive chalk, which isn't a problem in cash, but could pose some concern in tournaments. Busch is very good at road courses with an average finish of 13.16 in his last six road races. He is also very good at Sonoma, finishing in the top 10 in four of the last five races here. Busch has nowhere near the dominator potential of Truex but is still a solid building block for cash teams.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Elliott lucked into one two weeks ago at COTA but that shouldn't tarnish his reputation of being one of the best road course racers in NASCAR. Chase has won all but one road race since the last Sonoma race in 2019, a streak that is almost unimaginable. He has led at least one lap in every race since the 2018 Roval and gets to start on the front row Sunday afternoon. He carries some risk because he needs to lead a significant amount of laps and finish well to make the perfect lineups but he is hands down the most likely dominator and race winner.

Erik Jones ($7,000 DK, $6,000 FD)

Jones starts 18th on Sunday and is the cheapest driver with realistic top 10 potential that is starting in his range. Before his equipment change, Jones finished in the top 11 in each of his last 6 non-Charlotte Roval road races. This season, Jones has made the most of his poor starting position with an average finish of 15th. Jones could fill an important role for us as a lower priced driver that a solid ceiling that could help up afford some of these higher priced drivers.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,200 DK, $7,500 FD)

I like to use the risky pick of the week in a variety of ways throughout the season. This week I want to highlight a driver that may not look great on the surface but is projected very highly in my models, Matt DiBenedetto. He is starting 17th on Sunday and is a solid road racer, but nothing to write home about. He does have a 4th place finish in 2019 which gives us a glimpse of his upside but he has an average projected finish of 5.6 over my ten models. While I think that may be a slightly bullish, it does solidify the notion that he is a top 10 threat. I expect DiBenedetto to be a high risk, low owned option on Sunday due to his mediocre road history and relatively high price but I am willing to take a few tournament/satellite shots on him in the hopes that the models see something that I may be missing.

Bargain Basement

Anthony Alfredo ($5,800 DK, $3,500 FD)

The rookie has had a fantastic season so far at road races with an 18th and 22nd place finish, with an average positive place diff of 14 places. He is starting 28th on Sunday and will need to pick up about 10 spots if he wants to end up in the perfect lineup but that should be achievable over 90 laps.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Sonoma that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Newman ($6,300 DK, $5,000 FD)

Ross Chastain ($7,700 DK, $7,000 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($9,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Larson ($9,700 DK, $12,500 FD)

Last week's pick of Stenhouse was pretty obvious, this week's fade is vomit-inducing. Larson starts on the pole this weekend and always has the ability to just run away with a race. Sonoma is not his best road course, however, he has a top finish of 10th here. I also am getting on board with fading the polesitter in races where qualifying doesn't occur. Larson will need to lead a significant amount of laps and/or finish in the top 3 to pay off his salary, any result less than that will drop him out of the perfect lineup

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Toyota/Save Mart 350 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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