LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Toyota/Save Mart 350

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Toyota/Save Mart 350 Cheatsheet

Toyota/Save Mart 350🏁

Fuel/pit strategy races are an absolute nightmare from a DFS perspective, but as a racing fan, last week’s race was quite enjoyable. I was way overweight on Blaney, wrote him up as my tournament play and was on my way to a decent day…until the last lap. Unfortunately, that seems to be how this season is going, but the beauty of NASCAR is that there is another race this Sunday when the Cup Series travels to Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, CA for the Toyota/Save Mart 350. The track is a 12-turn road course carved into the Southern Sonoma Mountains. I generally treat road courses differently than ROVALS, and I actually chose to omit the Chicago street course from my data collection due to the weather. Remember, stage breaks are back at road courses this year, so strategy will play a major role in the race outcome.

Despite being located in California wine country, there is only a 1% chance of precipitation on Sunday. While every team will have windshield wipers and rain tires available to them, they will not be needed this weekend.

_{On to Sonoma!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 110 laps will be run this week, and 27.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 100 laps should run under the green flag for 45 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Road Races got us through the 2020 and 2021 seasons, but they have taken quite the hit with the new rules package. The only place it is harder to pass than short tracks is road courses, and by drastically reducing the number of laps being run, we have to shift our lineup construction. Building lineups around a dominator is the wrong approach for road courses due to the lack of dominator points available. Loading up on place differential drivers is also a fool’s errand because passing is incredibly difficult. Instead, we should focus on drivers who finish ideally in the top 15. We don’t necessarily need them to make massive moves to finish well, they will most likely start in the top 20 and finish in the top 15. For example, Driver A is starting 12th and projected to finish 8th, while Driver B is similarly priced, starts 25th, and is projected to finish 15th. In this scenario, Driver A is the better play because he is projected to score 40 DK pts and Driver B is projected to score 38 DK pts. The points accumulated for finishing 8th vs 15th are more valuable than the place differential. A top 15 finish is the hard stop for tournament viability on Sunday, the last time a driver made the perfect lineup and finished outside the top 15 is 2018.

To answer your question, yes, there have been dominators at road courses, and yes, they do make the perfect lineup. Predicting them, however, is not easy or really worth the trouble. Since stage breaks are going to be a thing again this year, pit strategy tends to jumble the field because a driver can pit 2 laps before the stage break and then not pit during the stage break and take the lead for the next stage. While we can generally identify which drivers are more likely to employ an alternative pit strategy to gain an advantage on the field, figuring out how that will affect the dominator picture is not enjoyable. In my opinion, the best strategy is to find your drivers that will finish well, and if you hit on 5 top 10 drivers, that gives you a 50% chance of hitting the dominator because for the dominator to make the perfect lineup, he will have to finish well. If a driver leads a bunch of laps then falls out of the top 15 they won’t make the perfect lineup, ultimately making them a poor play.

Stage 1: 25 Laps

Stage 2: 30 Laps

Stage 3: 55 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brad Keselowski ($7,000 DK, $5,800 FD)

Ok, so you know how I just spent 5 minutes explaining why finishing position is more important than place differential? Well, this is the cash plays section of the Pitstop, and we would have to be crazy to overlook Keselowski starting 35th. Brad was not impressive in practice or qualifying, but his ability to play the pit strategy game is unmatched. While his gambles don’t always pay off, he is constantly looking to use pit road to his advantage, and this is the type of race that will reward that type of thinking. I don’t expect him to finish in the top 15, so I am very hesitant to play Kes in tournaments, but I love the idea of building around him in cash games.

Chris Buescher ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD)

Keselowski’s teammate, Chris Buescher, has a similarly pitiful qualifying attempt and is starting 26th on Sunday. Buescher is coming off of two consecutive top 4 finishes at Sonoma, but they had more of a start well/finish well variety. The truly encouraging statistics for Chris are his similar track results, with an average finish of 7.75 on road courses over the last two seasons and an average positive place differential of 11.75. Buescher has top 15 potential, so he will be in my tournament pool, but I like him even more in cash.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,300 DK, $11,000 FD)

Elliott is one of the best road racers on the NASCAR circuit, and he is returning to vintage form this season. Chase is starting 4th this Sunday and is coming off of three straight top 8 finishes at Sonoma will laps led. He has been significantly less successful at the previous road racers over the last season and a half, but that was mostly due to his 2023 struggles. I expect Elliott to continue his 2024 resurgence en route to a top 3 finish with at least 10 laps led.

Alex Bowman ($7,500 DK, $7,800 FD)

Bowman is not known for his road racing prowess but my model loves him this Sunday from his 8th place starting position. While his success has not translated to Sonoma just yet, Alex has finished in the top 5 in every non-Sonoma road race since the beginning of 2023 and boasts an average positive place differential of 4. Anecdotally, the winner of the two previous Sonoma races also started 8th, which is skewing the machine learning model ever so slightly in his favor. While I can’t guarantee Bowman will win or dominate, everything is lining up for Bowman to finally break his Sonoma skid.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,600 DK, $2,500 FD)

There is a very real chance that no basement driver makes the perfect lineup this weekend so I don’t hate the idea of a full fade of the entire price range. The top 15 stipulation is a very tough thing for these driver to achieve but LaJoie has an outside chance of fulfilling that parameter from his 17th place starting position. Corey finished in the top 16 twice last season and has enough speed in his car to pick up a spot or two if he stays clean.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Sonoma that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($7,700 DK, $9,000 FD)

Ross Chastain ($8,300 DK, $8,200 FD)

Michael McDowell ($8,500 DK, $10,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Will Brown ($7,200 DK, $5,500 FD)

I have a steadfast rule to fade drivers from other series making their NASCAR debut. Brown starts 20th and posted the 3rd fastest single lap speed in practice. Add that to the success SVG has had over the past season and a half, and I expect Brown will go way over-owned.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 11-17 (-3 u)

Coming in hot this weekend with a long shot group winner but who doesn’t like a good redemption arc. Reddick starts on the front row but has made a habit of qualifying well and running into trouble at Sonoma so I can’t trust him. Logano won the pole and that is a dangerous place to be on a road course because of stage breaks, I expect him to get jumbled to the middle of the pack by the second stage. That leaves us Elliott vs Blaney. My model gives the nod to Blaney, who is susceptible to a bad race here, but he had a hiccup last time out, so I expect him to be dialed in on Sunday.

I have been picking on Truex the last couple of weeks with some success. This is my biggest swing against him with Buescher being a massive underdog but hear me out. Yes Truex is a fantastic road racer but he only finishes well when he qualifies well. Buescher, on the other hand, has consistently shown the ability to make his way through the field at these races. Truex has the 5 spot starting position advantage but my model gives Buescher the better projected finish, average sim finish and simulated top 10 percentage.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 6-8 (+6.9 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Toyota/Save Mart 350 cheatsheet

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