LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Toyota/Save Mart 350

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Toyota/Save Mart 350 Cheatsheet

Toyota/Save Mart 350🏁

While the weather was a constant threat last week in Chicago, the race turned out to be the first true road race at the track. This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series is making its yearly trip to one of its old faithful road courses, Sonoma Raceway, in Sonoma, CA, for the Toyota/Save Mart 350. The track is a 12-turn, 1.99-mile road course that features 160 feet in total elevation changes, a hairpin turn, and the course’s controversial “Chute.” This is now the fourth road course of the season and the second in consecutive weeks, so we should be getting a feel for which teams perform well at this track type.

Wet weather tires will not be needed this weekend. They are predicting a perfect summer afternoon in the California wine country.

On to Sonoma!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 110 laps will be run this week, and 27.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 100 laps should run under the green flag for 45 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) To dominate or not to dominate? That is the question. Sonoma has dominators, but they don’t always end up in the perfect lineup. In fact, in each of the last three races, only one of the top 2 lap leaders finished in the perfect lineup. Building around dominators may not be the recipe for success on Sunday.

2) Ok, if we don’t build around dominators, then what? This will be the typical road race with stage breaks. The driver who is leading at the end of the stage will stay out, and everyone else will pit, shuffling the lineup for the next stage. We want drivers who will play the right strategy and find themselves up front when the checkered flag comes out. There are very few obvious place differential plays this weekend, so I expect a very top-heavy lineup at the top of the leaderboard.

3) Don’t roster more than two drivers starting in the top 10. This rule is still in effect from last week. Front-loaded lineups are preferred, but a combination of place differential and finishing position will be key. We're looking for drivers who can pick up 5 or more spots and finish in the top 10. It's tough to do that if you’re already starting in the top 10.

4) Be careful in the basement. The bad drivers qualified poorly and will not have many opportunities to move up. We may want to avoid the entire price range.

Stage 1: 25 Laps

Stage 2: 30 Laps

Stage 3: 55 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chris Buescher ($8,600 DK, $11,000 FD): Buescher starts 14th, but he has been great at Sonoma as well as correlated tracks over the last year. Chris’s practice times weren’t great, but he is a proven road racer who understands how to finish well.

Bubba Wallace ($6,900 DK, $5,800 FD): I love Wallace’s starting position (30) and his potential to finish in the top 20. A top 10 will be tough this Sunday, and for that reason, he may be a cash-only play.

Joey Logano ($7,200 DK, $7,200 FD): Logano is another driver that may have limited tournament use but is a solid cash option. Joey started 22nd and posted the 13th best single lap speed and 9th best 5 lap average. While he typically qualifies well and falls back, I think this is a great opportunity for Logano to pick up some positive place differential with a solid finish.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,800 DK, $12,000 FD): Elliott is fantastic at Sonoma, and I expect that to continue on Sunday. He starts 13th on Sunday, and I think he is a shoo-in for a top 10 finish with top 5 upside.

Brad Keselowski ($6,600 DK, $6,000 FD): Keselowski starts 21st on Sunday and loves to pick up 10+ spots at Sonoma. He is much better here than on other road courses, and his teammate/employee Chris Buescher seems to have the secret sauce. I love Keselowski’s price and top 15 potential.

Michael McDowell ($9,300 DK, $13,000 FD): McDowell is laughably expensive, and that’s what makes him an interesting tournament play. Michael starts 15th and will need a top 5 finish to pay off his lofty salary, a feat he has accomplished in 2/3 races here.

Ross Chastain ($8,400 DK, $8,500 FD): Chastain starts 4th and is my model’s predicted winner. He has three straight top 10 finishes here, but only a top finish of 5th. He does have a win at a road course and could very well pick up another one on Sunday, but this is a very high-risk, high-reward proposition.

Bargain Basement

Erik Jones ($5,500 DK, $5,000 FD)

Jones starts 31st on Sunday and has two top 22 finishes in the last 3 races here. He isn’t the best option on the board, and I don’t think we will need anyone in this range, but in a pinch, Jones could be used to free up some salary.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Sonoma that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Justin Haley ($5,800 DK, $4,000 FD)

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($7,100 DK, $7,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Shane Van Gisbergen ($12,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Yes, SVG has been in the perfect lineup for 2/3 road races this year, but this is going to be my fade. He is the clear favorite to win, but Sonoma has not been kind to pole sitters in the Next Gen Era, and I don’t believe SVG is good enough to change that narrative.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 17-19 (9.9 u)

This is a matchup of two good road racers who run into problems at Sonoma. Over the last three races, Byron ran two clean races and had trouble in one, while Reddick had trouble in two races and ran well in one. This has the potential to be a great battle, one that my model projects Byron to win easily, but I fear this may come down to who can limit mistakes.

Speaking of mistakes, these drivers either finish in the top 5 or the bottom 5 this season, no in between. Both drivers start in the top 6 over the last three races, their combined top finish is 13th. I am going against my model a little bit here, but sometimes we have to trust our guts.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 4-5 (1.31 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Toyota/Save Mart 350 Cheatsheet

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