LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Toyota/Save Mart 350

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Toyota/Save Mart 350🏁

Brake issues and a surprise thunderstorm were the highlights of last weekend’s race but this Sunday should be different because right hand turns are back! The NASCAR Cup Series travels to Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, CA for the Toyota/Save Mart 350. The track is a hilly, 1.99 mile, 12 turn road course that features 160 feet in elevation changes. This will be the second road course this season being run under the new rules. While stage points will be recorded after the designated stage laps, there will be no caution, which pretty much eliminated the popular pit strategies from recent seasons and enables a true dominator to emerge.

While the weather forecast looked great last week, Mother Nature had other plans for us. This week, however, I believe the race should actually go off without a hitch.

_{On to Sonoma!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 110 laps will be run this week, and 27.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 95 laps should run under the green flag for 42.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

One of the things that separates good NASCAR DFS players from the beginners is realizing that a different strategy should be used for each track type. There is no universal magic formula for a winning lineup and a successful strategy at superspeedways will not work at road tracks and vice versa. This weekend, there are almost no dominator points up for grabs so we really want to focus our attention on finishing position. An example of prioritizing finishing position is comparing Alex Bowman ($8,000 starting 14th) to Brad Keselowski ($7,700 starting 25th). If Bowman picks up only 5 spots and finishes 9th, he will score 40 DK pts. Keselowski would have to pick up 11 spots and finish 14th to score the same amount of DK pts. While Kes looks like the safer option because he has fewer spots to potentially lose, it is actually very hard to pass at road courses and picking up 11 places is a tall task. Bowman, however, will only need to pass 5 drivers to hit value At road courses, we should have a more forward starting lineup than we are used to because we want as many drivers as possible that will finish in the top 10 and it is more likely than not that they will start towards the front of the field.

While finishing position is key, and there are very few dominator points to be had, if we want to win a big tournament cannot ignore the dominator completely. With the elimination of stage breaks, there is an increased likelihood that a dominator will emerge before the final stage. Dominators traditionally start in the top 10 at Sonoma and I don’t expect this Sunday to be any different. I would suggest rostering one driver in the top 10 that may not have a significant amount of place differential potential but does have a chance to win and hope that driver dominates the race. We should have two to three drivers starting in the top 10 in our lineups so hopefully that combination soaks up the majority of laps led.

The bargain basement is a dicey area to play in on Sunday. While there haven’t been too many discount drivers in perfect lineups here recently, there are some drivers in interesting positions for this race. In cash we can probably get away with rostering one punt but in tournaments I would limit my budget driver exposure to those high risk/high reward options.

Stage 1: 25 Laps

Stage 2: 30 Laps

Stage 3: 55 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,600 DK, $13,500 FD)

Larson has been having an up and down year, so much so that FOX ran a graphic during the last race highlighting the all or nothing nature of his season. Larson starts 16th on Sunday and is in prime position to get his season back on track. Kyle ran the fastest single lap speed as well as the best 5 and 10 lap averages in practice on Saturday. Historically, Larson has had some success at Sonoma with two top 10s including a win in his last three races here. He is widely considered one of the best road racers in the series and I love his ceiling on Sunday considering his discounted price tag.

Erik Jones ($6,800 DK, $6,000 FD)

Picking Jones goes against our strategy to prioritize finishing position but in cash we can sacrifice some upside for safety and that is where Jones comes in. Erik starts 28th on Sunday, which is actually a little further forward than what he is used to at road courses. Despite his terrible starting positions, Jones has three top 15 finishes in his last six road races. He didn’t look great on Saturday but that seems to be part of Jones’ playbook, it is Sunday that matters and a top 20 finish is all we would need out of him in cash.

Tournament Targets

Tyler Reddick ($10,400 DK, $13,000 FD)

Reddick has asserted himself as one of the most consistent road races in the Cup Series and he is primed to continue adding to his legacy on Sunday. Tyler starts on the front row next to Denny Hamlin who has been shaky at best at road courses over the last season and a half. Reddick, on the other hand, has finished in the top 7 in five of the last six road races, including three wins. Choosing dominators is a stressful proposition at road courses but Tyler is the mostly likely driver to run away from the field and that is exactly what he will have to do to make the perfect lineup.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,900 DK, $4,800 FD)

Stenhouse is the definition of risky driver of the week considering his 13th place starting position. Ricky has been deceptively consistent at road courses with a string of top 20 finishes over the last two seasons. We are going to ask him to improve upon that this weekend ,though, because we need a top 10 out of him. His single lap speed was promising on Saturday but there was considerable fall off over 5 laps. Stenhouse is a super cheap punt that has high upside if he hits ceiling. Overall, I would save him for big tournaments and qualifiers.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

Recommending a second bargain basement driver starting in the top 20 might actually be criminal but it is hard to pass here so this may actually work out. Lajoie starts 19th on Sunday and is another driver who needs to only pick up three spots to pay off his salary. He has finished in the top 18 in two of the last three road races and has the ability to sneak into the top 15. I wouldn’t suggest rostering LaJoie and Stenhouse together but both are decent options as a lineup filler on Sunday.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Sonoma that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Michael McDowell ($7,400 DK, $7,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD)

Austin Cindric ($9,100 DK, $9,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

William Byron ($9,900 DK, $12,500 FD)

I feel like I have mentioned Byron’s current form in every Pitstop over the last month but I think this is an opportunity to leverage against it on Sunday. William starts 26th this weekend and I expect him to garner a significant amount of ownership. I, on the other hand, will be avoiding him because he has struggled over his last six road races with only two top 10 finishes. He will need a top 10 finish to pay off his salary and I really don’t like banking on a driver hitting his ceiling at high ownership.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 8-18 (-6.25 u)

There has been a ton of Chastain hate recently but road courses are where he has excelled recently so I am looking to capitalize on that. I love his outright number at +2800 but I’ll take his top 5 for a little extra safety. He has three top 5 finishes in the last six road courses and a 7th place finish here last year.

Tons of plus money H2Hs to choose from this weekend but I like Blaney this weekend. Bell starts in the top 5 so there is a massive starting position discrepancy but Bell is incredibly accident prone where Blaney is consistent. I am more or less betting that Bell runs into trouble because I don’t think Blaney will be able to get into the top 5 by himself.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 2-3 (0.65 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Toyota/Save Mart 350 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!