Written by @joejets19

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Toyota Owners 400 🏁

Rain ruined our night race last weekend and really threw off the entire feng shui. Hopefully, we will be a little luckier this week as NASCAR visits Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA for the Toyota Owners 400. The track is a 0.75 mile D- shaped flat oval. Going through the research for the week it became apparent that the best drivers seem to always find their way upfront at Richmond and there is a significant separation of skill.

On to Richmond!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run this and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 370 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 166.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This is now the third straight race at a track less than a mile long so we know the first thing we need to think about is dominator points. 400 laps means there are a ton of points up for grabs and we are going to want to focus our energy primarily on dominators. Six of the last seven races at Richmond featured at least two drivers that led more than 89 laps, including two races with three drivers that accomplished that feat. Merely leading that many laps does not guarantee a driver a spot in the perfect lineup however, there have been four drivers in that same period that have led more than 89 laps and missed out on perfection. Almost every major dominator in the last seven races started in the top 11 with the exception of one driver that started 15th. The front row does not seem to provide an inherent advantage at Richmond but there have been several dominating performances from pole sitters in recent history. Three dominator races occur fairly often at this track but even when they do, only two of those drivers make the perfect lineup so I think we should target two drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can lead more than 89 laps and finish well on Sunday.

As for our place differential drivers, historically, big moves are possible through the field and bargain-basement drivers are viable. We are going to want three drivers starting 15-30 that can pick up a nice amount of spots and can finish in the top 15. Bad cars generally finish poorly here and there is a limited amount of attrition so we don't want to just backload lineups and hope all hell breaks loose. We may need to dip into the bargain basement to be able to fit both dominators in our lineups which is ok but they need to have top 20 upsides ideally.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 155 laps, Stage 3: 165 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 30

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($11,400 DK, $14,000 FD)

Truex Jr is starting on the pole on Sunday and he is also a huge favorite to win. He has been absolutely phenomenal here over the last four races with four top 3 finishes including two wins and over 109 laps led in three of those races. He is coming off of a hard-fought win last week over teammate Denny Hamlin (who will be starting right beside him and is a solid play himself), where Truex really battled his car all race and then was able to find his stride late. We are going to need Truex to be in command early to pay off his heft salary but I think he is poised to lead a significant amount of laps on Sunday and will be in contention for back-to-back wins.

Austin Cindric ($8,600 DK, $6,000 FD)

This is your weekly reminder to play the obvious place differential plays in cash and move on. Cindric is starting dead last and gets to drive a Penske Ford, which is all the information you really need. It also helps that he has four top 5 finishes here during his tenure in the Xfinity Series and has produced two top 25 finishes in both of his Cup races this season, including a 22nd place finish at Atlanta. While a top 25 would probably generate enough points in cash, he would need a top 20 to be useful in tournaments which is well within the range of outcomes but not a guarantee. Overall I love the safety Cindric provides at an affordable price.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,300 DK, $11,200 FD)

There is no shortage of dominator options in the stacked top 10 but I think Larson may be able to provide us some leverage on Sunday. He started the season well, even picking up a win, but has struggled the last two weeks and I think will be lower owned than he should be due to a misleading average finish here. Larson has four top 7 finishes in his last five races at Richmond including a win but one accident brings his average finish up to 14.25. Pairing that with the lack of any dominant performances in his history may cause Larson to be under-owned but I like the speed that he consistently brings to the racetrack, including his fifth-best green flag average speed this month at Phoenix.

Ryan Newman ($7,000 DK, $7,500 FD)

After his huge crash last season at Daytona, Newman seemed pretty hesitant to race like his normal self. This year, however, he seems to be back to his old ways and that could mean big things for Newman on Sunday. He starts 19th but has an exceptional history here with five top 15 finishes in his last seven races, including four top 10s. It is not often that Newman is a top 10 threat these days but Sunday will be one of those times. Anything better than a top 14 will put him in serious consideration for the perfect lineup.

Aric Almirola ($8,200 DK, $7,800 FD)

Almirola is having a brutal start to this year with only one top 15 finish. He is starting 22nd on Sunday and I think he can be an interesting tournament pivot off of Cindric and Bowman who are both in the same price range and starting behind him. Almirola has a solid history here with two top 10 finishes in his last four and a positive place differential in nine of his last ten. His overall struggles qualify him for the risky spot of the week but the one thing giving me hope is his one good race of the season was at Phoenix where he showed some speed on his way to an 11th place finish.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,200 DK, $3,000 FD)

Lajoie crushed us last week with a pit road accident and I think he is an excellent play this weekend but I think I prefer the savings with Haley. It's looking like salary is going to be tight on Sunday and I think Haley has a similar ceiling as Lajoie so give me the extra money at lower ownership.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Richmond that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($6,600 DK, $5,300 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $13,000 FD)

Ryan Preece ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($9,100 DK, $10,200 FD)

Blaney is the type of driver that always shows up with a fast race car but can get himself into trouble every now and again. Richmond is clearly one of his worst tracks with no top 15 finishes in his Cup career and eight straight races with a negative place differential. He is starting 7th on Sunday and brings a whole lot more risk to the table than I am comfortable with.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Toyota Owners 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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