LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Toyota Owners 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Toyota Owners 400🏁

After a controversial finish last week at the Circuit of the Americas, NASCAR now travels to Richmond Speedway in Richmond, VA, for the Toyota Owners 400. The track is a 0.75 mile, flat, D-shaped asphalt oval with relatively high tire wear. This race will also feature the older 2 inch spoiler and new wet weather tires. NASCAR hopes the implementation of the older spoiler will decrease downforce and allow for more passing at short tracks, something desperately needed. They also are allowing short track races to be run in damp conditions, teams will not have wet weather tires that can be used if the track is not completely dry but the race will not be run in the rain due to visibility issues.

Weather has been a huge factor this weekend, cancelling practice and qualifying on Saturday. The race should go off without a hitch however, and even if there is a pop up shower, it will give the previously mentioned wet weather tires some time to shine.

On to Richmond!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 370 laps should run under the green flag for 166.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

We went from a race with the fewest amount of laps run to a short track race with at least 400 laps this Sunday. It goes almost without saying that hitting our dominators will be essential to our success. Each of the last twelve races featured at least one drive that led more than 100 laps and in six of those races a second driver also led more than 100 laps. What is incredibly frustrating about our dominator search this weekend is that they can come from anywhere. A driver with a fast car can take half the race to work their way up front and will still have the opportunity to lead 150+ laps. In our two dominator lineups I would probably roster at least 1 driver starting in the top 5, but this is not a track where we will want to lock in the polesitter or a driver on the front row. Whoever does get upfront, though, will be very hard to pass. This new package has taken some of the excitement out of short tracks. I was very interested to see how the drivers felt in the cars during practice, but mother nature had other ideas. Either way, I think the two-dominator strategy will be the best way to attack this slate.

Once we lock in our potential dominators, we will want drivers with top 15 potential. Last Summer’s race was a bit of an anomaly, with all drivers in the perfect lineup starting between 13-33, all drivers finished in the top 12, and the major dominator led more than 200 laps and started 17th. I would expect at least one driver starting in the top 10 to make the perfect lineup on Sunday, and I wouldn’t be completely surprised if as many as three snuck in there. The key is to identify drivers with top 15 potential and ideally, our high priced drivers should have dominator potential.

Stage 1: 70 Laps

Stage 2: 160 Laps

Stage 3: 170 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,900 DK, $12,000 FD)

Truex Jr. has been one of the most consistent drivers at Richmond over the last eight races with eight consecutive top 7 finishes, including three wins and six races with at least 80 laps led. Martin starts 12th on Sunday, which does not concern me too much; in fact, it might actually help his cash game viability because there is some built-in place differential. Due to the starting lineup being determined by the rule book, drivers are starting ahead of him that are not the best at short tracks, so I expect Truex to make it into the top 5 fairly easily, and it will only be a question of how many laps he will lead on Sunday.

Aric Almirola ($7,600 DK, $7,500 FD)

Is the track short? Yes. Is the track flat? Yes. Alright, that makes Almirola a solid play. As a bonus this week, Aric starts 32nd, so there is a boatload of place differential potential at play. Almirola has three top 8 finishes in his last five races at Richmond, including an 8th place finish from this exact starting position last Summer. While I am not thrilled about his increased price tag and inflated ownership, Aric should be the cornerstone to any cash lineup this Sunday.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,600 DK, $13,000 FD)

This is a bit of an outside-the-box tournament play this weekend. Larson starts 9th on Sunday as he is coming off of a dominant performance at Phoenix, another short flat track. All eyes will be on Byron due to his starting position and two wins already this season. Still, I expect parity will be a major theme this season, and I think his early success is a reason to pivot off of William this Sunday. Larson, however, has been sneaky fast so far this season but has just run into a bit of bad luck. I always prefer to be early on guys than late on them, so I will ride with Larson on Sunday as one of my core dominators in the hopes of being a little different.

Chase Briscoe ($7,800 DK, $7,000 FD)

My risky pick of the week is Briscoe starting 19th on Sunday. He is coming from a fantastic race in Phoenix where he turned his top 10 speeds into a 7th place finish with a ton of place differential. This weekend I am looking for a similar result, a top 10 finish with a positive place differential of at least 10. Briscoe’s average finish at Richmond is 18, which is not great, but his average finish at similar tracks last season was 11.1, which gives us a glimmer of hope for his upside this weekend. This is the definition of a high risk, high reward tournament play that should be relatively unowned.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,500 DK, $3,500 FD)

This is a miserable weekend for the bargain basement. We need top 15 potential for cheap, which is a BIG ask at Richmond. I am going to settle on Haley starting 29th due to his upside. Cheaper drivers are starting further back that are viable for cash, but there is no realistic expectation of them finishing well enough to make us any money in tournaments. While Justin doesn’t have the best history here, he runs well enough at similar tracks to at least hint at the possibility of a top 20 finish and that is the best we can ask for at this point.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Richmond that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

William Byron ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Austin Dillon ($7,200 DK, $6,500 FD)

Christopher Bell ($10,300 DK, $11,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,700 DK, $4,200 FD)

Stenhouse is starting 8th on Sunday and he is going to fall out of the top 10 quickly. Richmond is not his best track by any stretch of the imagination, in fact he hasn’t finished in the top 15 in his last seven races here. There are plenty of fast drivers starting behind him so there is no reason for him to even be a consideration this Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 1-7 (-5.5 u)

It is no secret that I love Truex this weekend. Hamlin and Bell are both formidable foes and I really love Bell as a gpp pivot off of Byron, but overall I like Truex’s chances of being the top Toyota. He is incredibly consistent and is a real threat on Sunday.

Logano starts 18th so he has his work cut out for him on Sunday but I think he is up to the task. Due to his price I don’t love him as a DFS play because I am worried about how many laps he will be able to lead, if any, but I think he has a decent enough chance to finish in the top 5.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 2-1 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Toyota Owners 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!