LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Toyota Owners 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Toyota Owners 400🏁

First, I would like to wish everyone who celebrates a Happy Easter. While I hope your day is filled with services, family time, and egg hunts, your night will have horsepower, bumping, and winnings if everything goes according to plan. This Sunday evening, the NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA, for the Toyota Owners 400. The track is a 0.75 mile, flat, D-shaped oval. Despite its high tire wear, Richmond has historically been one of the more predictable tracks on the NASCAR circuit. This means we should be able to rely heavily on our projections because they are more likely to be correct at this track than most others.

Mother Nature may rain on our parade (some pun intended) this weekend. While the early part of the day looks clear, there is currently a 40-50% chance of rain between 4 and 10 p.m. I would reserve our entries early in the day, but if there is any precipitation after 4 p.m., I expect NASCAR to make a decision on the race well before lock.

_{On to Richmond!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 370 laps should run under the green flag for 166.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

While this race won’t feature the most laps in a race this season, 400 laps will produce a staggering amount of dominator points. Richmond is a weird short track because there are generally several dominators, but not all make the perfect lineup. Three to four drivers can lead between 80-120 laps in a race, and two, possibly three, will be optimal. Adding to the fun, drivers can come from pretty much anywhere and lead laps. One dominator generally starts in the top 5, but that is the driver we have to worry about losing too many spots and not being optimal. Ideally, we should aim to roster 3 possible dominators, one of which should start in the top 5.

After finding our dominators, we will aim to place differential drivers. Good drivers can make big moves at Richmond; bad drivers—not so much. In a perfect world, all six drivers should finish in the top 10, but that doesn’t happen often. All six drivers should finish in the top 20, and at least four need to finish in the top 10.

Bargain basement drivers will be a hard sell this weekend. There is relatively low attrition here, so drivers must make passes on merit. While I am not saying rostering a basement driver should be avoided at all costs, they may be more of a price-saving option for cash games than a staple of tournament builds.

Stage 1: 70 Laps

Stage 2: 160 Laps

Stage 3: 170 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Briscoe ($7,600 DK, $7,200 FD)

Briscoe pulled a rabbit out of his hat last week for us, and I am hoping he can go two for two this Sunday. Chase starts 32nd again on Sunday and needs a 20th place finish at least to hit value. Luckily for us, Briscoe posted the top 19 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages in practice on Saturday. His average finish of 14.25 here over the last four races and an average finish of 13.7 at similar tracks last year indicate that Briscoe is well on his way to another top-20 finish, which is exactly what we will need in cash games.

Joey Logano ($8,400 DK, $8,000 FD)

I faded Logano last week, to my peril, because he has had a rough start to the season. Joey followed his fantastic performance at COTA last week with a 10th place qualifying effort on Saturday. While rostering a driver starting this far forward in cash is dicey, I love Logano’s ability to hover around the top 10 at Richmond and finish well or scoop up a W. Due to his depressed price, Joey will need a top 6 finish to reach value, which is a reasonable expectation considering his 6th-best 30 lap average in practice on Saturday.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,200 DK, $11,500 FD)

Larson is much more boom or bust at Richmond than I would like, but I think this Sunday will be the race he breaks through and leads a significant number of laps from the pole. Kyle has never led more than 93 laps in a race at Richmond, and those laps came during his win last Spring. Larson was very fast in practice on Saturday, posting top 5 10, 15, 20, 25,30 lap averages. It is only a matter of time before the drivers with better track history catch up to Larson and lead a significant number of laps, but until then, I expect Kyle to lead at least 100 laps and hang on to a top 10 finish.

Ryan Preece ($6,500 DK, $6,000 FD)

This is a borderline insane play, but it’s the risky pick of the week for a reason, right? Preece is starting 16th on Sunday and didn’t particularly light up the speed charts during practice. My model, however, predicts a 9th place finish and a 59% chance he finishes in the top 10. While his previous finishes here were impressive (18th and 5th), I can’t put my finger on why my model thinks he’s going to perform so well. Hopefully, this is one of those plays that no one else is looking at, and we can really differentiate ourselves from the field with Preece.

Bargain Basement

Harrison Burton ($5,200 DK, $2,500 FD)

Burton starts 26th on Sunday and was fairly impressive in practice, turning in the 11th best single lap speed and 30 lap average. Harrison does have two top 20 finishes at Richmond in his last four races with limited positive place differential. While another top 20 would be great for cash games, he will need to sneak into the top 15 to be useful in tournaments

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Richmond that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($9,700 DK, $9,000 FD)

Austin Dillon ($6,800 DK, $5,500 FD)

Ty Gibbs ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Todd Gilliland ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

I write Gilliland up fairly often, but usually not with a negative connotation. Today, however, it is different because he qualified 6th. While most short track reward qualifying well, Todd will have almost no chance to hold on to a top 10 finish. He will fall back fast, which will be catastrophic for any roster with him on it.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 7-5 (6.5 u)

Kyle Busch is as consistent as they come at Richmond, with a top-10 finish in 15/18 races here. On the other hand, Chastain has had some recent success but cannot be trusted. I will take consistency at plus money any day of the week.

A Toyota hasn’t won at Richmond since 2022. The sportsbooks are favoring the Toyotas heavily in H2Hs and outright bets but I really don’t see it. I’ll call this an anything but Toyota bet; it risks 2 units, but as long as anything but a Toyota wins, we will profit at least 1.25 units.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 2-3 (+2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Toyota Owners 400

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