🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Toyota Owners 400 🏁

Any other year I would characterize this weekend's race as a breather after the non-stop action we have seen so far. This season, however, almost anything can happen as NASCAR travels to Richmond Motor Speedway in Richmond, VA for the Toyota owners 400. The track is a 0.75-mile D-shaped oval known to produce high-speed action. The cars were impounded overnight so we shouldn't expect too much news on Sunday morning and the weather looks perfect so that shouldn't be an issue either.

On to Richmond!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 350 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 157.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

There are a ton of dominator points up for grabs this Sunday, the key is to figure out who is going to gobble them up. Traditionally, there are two to three drivers that lead 90 or more laps during any given race. Those drivers almost exclusively start in the top 10 and usually include at least one driver from the top 3.

For non-dominators, we want to focus on drivers that can pick up at least 10 spots or finish in the top 16. Considering the pricing for this race, I would not be surprised to see at least one bargain-basement driver in the perfect lineup.

This might be the shortest lineup construction section ever, but as we have seen in the last few races, we could have the right approach for 99.9% of the race and have it all blown up in the last lap. I am still advocating for the high floor approach of going way overweight on place differential drivers and then sprinkling in as many possible dominators as we can . Every race seems to feature a low owned driver that breaks the slate so we need to maximize our ability to nail that driver.

Stage 1: 70 laps, Stage 2: 160 laps, Stage 3: 170 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($9,600 DK, $14,000 FD)

Truex has clearly been the top driver at Richmond since 2019. In his last five races here, Martin has three wins, a second and a 5th place finish. To go along with his string of fantastic finishes, Truex 80 or more laps in four of those races and racked up a total of 482 laps led in the span. Joe Gibbs racing has had some uncharacteristic hiccups so far this season but they seem to have righted the ship this weekend, placing three drivers in the top 9: Kyle Busch (3), Truex (6), Bell (9).

Austin Dillon ($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Richmond is one of Austin Dillon's best tracks and we get him at an incredibly modest price. Dillon is starting 25th on Sunday and is riding a bit of a hot streak here, with four top 11 finishes in his last 6 races. Austin did not show a ton of speed in practice but I think his experience will translate well over 400 laps. I am also encouraged by his Phoenix result from this season. While he finished 21st, he actually had an average running position on 10th, indicating he ran much better than his result would make you believe.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD)

Kyle Larson is exactly the type of driver I would typically avoid in a normal season that could actually end up being a dominator. Larson is starting outside the top 10 (21 st), he doesn't have a top 5 finish in his last 6 races here and hasn't led more than 53 laps here ever. On the plus side, Larson posted the 4th best 5 laps average, the 2nd best 10,15,20,25 lap average, and the best 30 lap average during practice. While Larson is the second most expensive driver on DK, he is cheap enough to reach 5x value by finishing in the top 5. If he is able to even lead a handful of laps and add some fastest laps, he could be in for a big day.

Daniel Suarez ($7,800 DK, $7,300 FD)

Suarez has been having a fantastic season so far and he looks to continue that trend on Sunday. He has posted three top 9 finishes this year, including a 9th place finish at Phoenix. Suarez has also performed well at Richmond in the past with a positive place differential in seven of his last 8 races here. Daniel starts 14th on Sunday so he is far from a safe play but if he can sneak into the top 10 he will have a great shot at the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,200 DK, $2,500 FD)

Dillion is no stranger to starting towards the rear of the field at Richmond but he has been able to make the best of it. Ty is starting 30th on Sunday but that is not an indication of how well he ran during practice. Dillon posted the 17th best single lap time during practice and had the 14th best 15 laps average. I think he can manage a top 20 finish and that would have a chance to land him in the winning lineup.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at COTA that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD)

William Byron ($9,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

William Byron ($9,000 DK, $11,500 FD)

My Byron fades don't usually go according to plan but he is not very good here and is starting on the front row. Byron has never finished better than 7th here and has never even led a lap. William was not good at all during practice, posting the 7th best single laps time and 19th best 10 lap average. I may have a share or two this weekend but I am not expecting big things from Byron on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

Had a winning week on our hands until the last lap, this game can be cruel sometimes.

4-10 (-4.65u)

As I mentioned earlier, Suarez has three top 10s this season, including a 9th place finish at Phoenix. He is starting far enough forward that he doesn't have to make any crazy moves, just pick up a few spots throughout the race.

Logano is not the sexy pick but he is definitely the most consistent. I expect a bit of a letdown from Chastain after his big win. Reddick and Byron combine for a total of 1 top 10 finish in their career here. I am not expecting Logano to light world on fire, just to run his race and wait for the other drivers to flame out around him.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Toyota Owners 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!