LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - The Great American Getaway 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the The Great American Getaway 400 Cheatsheet

The Great American Getaway 400🏁

Mexico City did not disappoint last weekend when SVG survived the rain to take home the checkered flag. The NASCAR Cup Series is back stateside this Sunday when they travel to Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA for the Great American Getaway 400. The track is a unique, 2.5-mile, flat, triangularly shaped tri-oval. Each of the three turns is an identical turn found in other tracks around America; most notably, turn 2 is a replica of Indianapolis Motor Speedway, which we will visit in July.

While a heat advisory is in effect for Sunday, there is only a 20% chance of rain. Just like Michigan, however, NASCAR always seems to run into weather here, and summertime in the mountains can be unpredictable.

On to Pocono!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 160 laps will be run this week, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 125 laps should run under the green flag for 56.25 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) The Tricky Triangle is…. tricky. I'm not sure what happened to the 2023 data, but either way, the Pocono race is not an easy one to get a handle on. Limited dominator points and plenty of trouble really limits our options. It isn’t the easiest place to pass, but cars can have problems. By no means do these races unfold like superspeedways, so we must be cautious.

2) Fast cars will make their way up front. While I don’t want to rely too heavily on dominators, I think rostering three top 15 drivers is a solid strategy, hoping that all three finish well and can potentially soak up some laps led.

3) Aim for a top 15. While passing isn’t easy, enough cars will have incidents that we will need our place differential drivers to finish in the top 15. If you don’t think a driver has top 15 potential, don’t even bother clicking their name.

4) The Basement is open. One basement driver will most likely end up in the perfect lineup, but a top 15 is still the goal. Place differential will be key in this range, do not try to roster a driver who qualified over their head and pray they hang on to the field position.

Stage 1: 30 Laps

Stage 2: 65 Laps

Stage 3: 65 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

William Byron ($10,400 DK, $12,500 FD): Byron was lightning quick in practice but caught the wall in qualifying, so he will be scored from 31st. William has massive upside from this starting position and will likely be the most highly owned driver on the slate.

Josh Berry ($6,900 DK, $7,200 FD): Berry is another driver who ran into trouble on Saturday, and as a result, he will start 35th. For some insane reason, my model loves Josh on Sunday, and while I am admittedly not as high on him, a top 20 finish is reasonable, and at his price, a top 15 should land him in the perfect lineup.

Bubba Wallace ($7,500 DK, $8,500 FD): Wallace wasn’t able to get his car to start for qualifying, which is downright silly considering these are million-dollar machines, but now he starts 34th, and that makes him a very attractive cash option. He was the second fastest car in practice and had an average finish of 10.33 at Pocono in the Next Gen Era.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD): Hamlin was pitiful in practice but managed to capture the pole in qualifying. He is a master at Pocono with two wins and a second in the last three races here. He is the highest-priced driver on both sites and the most likely dominator. While I love him for tournament, I will be avoiding him in cash and qualifiers because his hot run has to die down eventually.

Tyler Reddick ($9,900 DK, $11,500 FD): Reddick is the type of driver that starts in the top 10, leads a handful of laps, and finishes in the top 5 at Pocono. Since we are looking for two to three drivers starting in the top 15 to be potential dominators, he fills that role. Unfortunately, it will be hard to roster Hamlin, Reddick, and a high-priced driver who qualified poorly. Decisions, decisions.

Michael McDowell ($6,200 DK, $6,000 FD): McDowell had a fast car in practice but only managed to turn in the 28th best qualifying time. Michael is another driver who provides a ton of value on Sunday, and I think he may fly under the radar a touch.

Kyle Busch ($8,100 DK, $7,000 FD): This is another model play because I cannot trust Busch one bit this season. Kyle was blah in practice and turned in a 26th-place qualifying time, but for some reason, my model gives him an 86% chance of finishing in the top 10. If he stays clean, I understand the upside, but Busch refuses to get out of his own way.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

A ton of the basement qualified in the top 20, and I am definitely not ready to stomach that risk. Gilliland starts 32nd, and while I don’t think he has top 15 potential, his average finish of 23, plus a couple of spots of attrition, makes me hopeful for a top 20.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Pocono that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD)

Ross Chastain ($9,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Cole Custer ($5,100 DK, $3,200 FD)

Custer starts 5th on Sunday, but he has an average finish of 22 at Pocono. He practiced in the teens, and I can’t imagine a scenario where he finishes in the top 10. This race is way too unpredictable to have a basement driver ruin your day.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 15-15 (10.6 u)

Both Blaney and Larson are starting well behind where they are accustomed to, 20th and 24th, respectively. Blaney had the better car on Saturday, but Larson has the better history over the last three races. My model gives Larson the edge by more than 3 spots, and I think that is a fairly accurate assessment.

I will continue to fade Hocevar as long as Underdog will let me. Yes, he has been running very well for 97% of a race, but unfortunately, everything depends on where a driver is when the checkered flag is waving. Wallace is one of my favorite DFS plays, but a top 11 finish is a stretch

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 3-2 (1.98 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the The Great American Getaway 400 Cheatsheet

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