LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Straight Talk Wireless 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Straight Talk Wireless 400 Cheatsheet

Straight Talk Wireless 400🏁

Lady Luck threw a surprise winner our way last weekend when Josh Berry took home the checkered flag. This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, FL, for the Straight Talk Wireless 400. The track is a 1.5 mile, moderately banked oval known for its tough racing surface that chews up tires. Homestead is often referred to as a race car driver’s favorite track because of the wide racing surface and sweeping turns that allow multiple racing grooves.

While Daytona races are notoriously cursed with rain, Homestead has been mostly spared from catastrophe. The current forecast is overcast and 79 with a 10% chance of rain. You can’t ask for any better conditions in Florida if you ask me.

_{On to Homestead!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for 103.5 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Look for two dominators. Two of the three next gen races have had at least two drivers that led 80 or more laps. Our usual cutout for “dominator” is 100 laps led but there are a bunch of lead changes at this track. One dominator will definitely come from the top 5, and the other two can come from anywhere.

2) Big moves are not unheard of at Homestead. Finding trends in these perfect lineups is not easy because drivers can race through the field with the right equipment and even lead a significant number of laps. The moral of the story is that if you think a car is fast, don’t be scared of the driver’s starting position.

3) At least 5 drivers should have top 10 potential. As always, drivers must finish well to make the perfect lineup. Each of the last 3 perfect lineups featured 5 drivers that finished in the top 10, and the 6th driver still needs to finish in the top 15. Even the punts perform well at Homestead.

4) The Basement is open for business. One trip into the basement won’t kill a lineup. The driver needs top 15 potential, so beware of the super back markers.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Tyler Reddick ($10,700 DK, $13,500 FD): Reddick was lightning-quick in practice and has plenty of place differential. It’ll take some time for Tyler to make it toward the front of the field, but if he can make the high line work, the rest of the field will be in serious trouble.

Daniel Suarez ($7,600 DK, $6,800 FD): Suarez starts 33rd and has a fantastic track history. Three top-16 finishes with positive place differential are exactly what we are looking for in cash games. He may not have the ceiling for tournaments, but he will certainly be very highly owned.

Denny Hamlin ($9,700 DK, $11,000 FD): Hamlin had one of the fastest cars in practice on Saturday but only qualified 23rd. He offers a steep discount to some of the other big names in the field, but I love Denny from a pure place differential perspective.

Tournament Targets

Alex Bowman ($8,600 DK, $9,000 FD): A dominator will come from the top 5, and I think the two obvious choices are Bowman and Byron. Byron had the faster car in practice, but he started further back, and it was much more expensive. I think Bowman is the play this weekend in tournaments because I love the fact that he is starting on the pole and gets all the clean air.

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD): I don’t expect Bowman to run away with the race so I think it’s only a matter of time until Larson finds the front of the field. Larson won the first next-gen race here and completely dominated. While I am not banking on a repeat performance, matching Larson with Bowman is a great tournament strategy to try and capture all of the dominator points.

Austin Dillon ($6,300 DK, $5,000 FD): Dillon is not one of my favorite drivers, but sometimes I can’t argue with track history. Austin has two top-10 finishes in his last three races here, including a 4th-place finish where he gained 28 spots.

AJ Allmendinger (7,000 DK, $6,000 FD): Allmendinger is my risky pick of the week because he has a ton to lose and only one real path to hitting value. AJ is the only driver in the field with three straight top-10 finishes at Homestead, and he will need to finish in at least the top 7 to have a chance at the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,600 DK, $3,500 FD)

The basement is a minefield this weekend, but my model loves one driver in the range, and that is Todd Gilliland. He is starting 29th so he provides a mix of safety and place differential potential. Admittedly, a top 15 would be a stretch, but a top 20 finish would not be out of the question, so he is a viable cash play.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Homestead that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($8,200 DK, $7,000 FD)

William Byron ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD)

Ryan Preece ($7,200 DK, $6,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Briscoe ($8,400 DK, $8,500 FD)

Briscoe has been snake-bitten so far this season with a rash of unforced errors. He starts 4th on Sunday, and I don’t see any dominator potential in that car, so he is all downside with limited upside.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 3-7 (-2 u)

This is a heavyweight matchup if I ever saw one. I generally avoid the big names in these H2Hs, but +130 is mispriced. My model predicts Reddick to end up in victory lane, with Larson finishing second. Reddick also has a better average simulated finish by less than a position. This is a tight matchup but I give the nod to Reddick.

Keselowski qualified poorly, and Homestead has not been his best track by any stretch of the imagination. Gragson qualified over his head and is bound to cause some trouble. At a track known for drivers making big moves, these guys are in trouble.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-2 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Straight Talk Wireless 400 Cheatsheet

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