LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Straight Talk Wireless 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Straight Talk Wireless 400 Cheatsheet

Straight Talk Wireless 400🏁

A major gamble in Las Vegas paid off for Joey Logano as he was able to steal the checkered flag and punch his ticket to the Championship Four. This Sunday, the seven remaining playoff drivers will be looking to secure their seat in the final race when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, FL for the Straight Talk Wireless 400. The former venue of the Championship race is a 1.5 mile, banked, oval known to chew through tires. This is the type of race where the fuel mileage is not nearly as important as tire management. Whoever has a fresh set of stickers at the last caution may find themselves moving on to the next round.

Sunday looks to be another fantastic day for racing. Temperatures in the low 80s and less than 10% chance of rain should make for a pleasant event.

Programing note: I will be tweaking the format of the Pitstop over the next few races so feel free to leave a comment in chat or reach out on X/Twitter to tell me what you like, don’t like, would possibly want to see going forward.

_{On to Homestead!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 235 laps should run under the green flag for 105.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Find our dominator. 1.5 mile intermediate tracks do not provide enough laps to produce multiple dominators. Larson led over 95 laps in both Next-Gen races here when starting 5th. I expect the dominator to start in the top 5 again this Sunday.

2) Only roster drivers with top 15 potential. Passing is possible at Homestead and our place differential drivers will be the key to our success. Most of our drivers should start 20th or worse but they need a high ceiling. Starting 30th and finishing 20th will not cut it this Sunday.

3) Avoid front-loading our lineups. Yes we want drivers that can finish in the top 15 but this is a place differential track not a finishing position track. Any driver we roster starting in the top 10 should have dominator potential, anyone else is a waste of time.

4) We should avoid the basement if we can. This is a surprisingly low attrition race. If we dip into the basement the driver must be able to finish in the top 15 on his own merits.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD) Chastain is starting 22nd but had the best single lap speed and 11th best 10 lap average.

William Byron ($10,300 DK, $13,000 FD) Byron struggled in practice, but he has been fantastic all season. There’s no chance he finished outside the top 10.

AJ Allmendinger ($7,300 DK, $7,200 FD) Model loves AJ and he had decent single lap speed with massive falloff. Ceiling may be limited for tournaments but solid cash play.

Tournament Targets

Tyler Reddick ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD): The pole is cursed in 2024, but he is fast and loves to run the high line.

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD): Either Larson or Reddick will be the major dominator. Larson has had Homestead’s number the last two seasons. Can he do it a third time? He is expensive but has the highest ceiling in the field.

Austin Cindric ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD): The model loves Cindric, who has a fantastic track history. When Austin likes a track, he performs well, and I expect him to make a massive move on Sunday.

Michael McDowell ($6,300 DK, $5,200 FD) McDowell was crazy fast in practice but qualified poorly. I don’t expect a top 10, but I could sneak into the top 15.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,800 DK, $3,200 FD)

Todd has been a hit or miss option recently. He had a hot streak of top 20 finishes but he has come back to earth recently. Gilliland was deceptively fast over the long run in practice on Saturday and starts 31st on Sunday, giving him ample place differential potential.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Homestead that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($9,800 DK, $11,500 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($10,000 DK, $12,00 FD)

Erik Jones ($6,600 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daniel Hemric ($5,400 DK, $2,500 FD)

This is more or less a no brainer but there is no possible reason to play Hemric starting 9th this Sunday. His practice times were atrocious and his best finish at a correlated track this season is 9th. To play Hemric we would have to bank on a career defining race and that isn’t exactly something I am expecting out of him this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-34 (7.7 u)

Slim pickings this weekend but we did find a plus money H2H on DK. Buescher had better practice times, better track history and better correlated track results this season. He starts 10 spots further back and neither are projected to finish particularly well but Chris should still have an edge.

Wallace has a rocket ship this weekend and qualified 9th. Bubba and his team are their own worst enemy so it will be on them to run a clean race because there is enough speed in the car to hold on to a top 10 finish but it will be up to them to execute.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Straight Talk Wireless 400 cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!