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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Cook Out Southern 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Cook Out Southern 500🏁

An early “Big One’ took out the two playoff bubble drivers in the first stage last weekend, but Ryan Blaney’s last-second heroics bailed them out. The playoff field is now set. Over the next 10 races, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, SVG, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, Josh Berry, Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, and Alex Bowman will battle to be the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. The first stop of this marathon is Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC, for the Southern 500. The track is a unique 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval known for close calls with the wall and absolutely eating up tires. The Southern 500 is one of NASCAR’s Crown Jewels, and the winner will get an automatic bid into the next round of the playoffs, so expect everyone to bring their A game in this race of attrition.

The weather for this Sunday evening is almost perfect. Cool temperatures and almost no risk of precipitation means we should just be able to sit back and enjoy a fantastic race.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 367 laps will be run this week, and 91.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 325 laps should run under the green flag for 146.25 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) This may be a one-dominator race. Darlington is a strange place because the winning strategy and the dominating strategy are not always the same. Each of the last four races had one driver who led at least 170 laps, and none of those drivers won the race. In fact, two of them finished outside the top 30. We will have to be very careful to get our dominator pick right. We should focus our dominator pool on the top 4. While in cash, we may only select one driver; in tournaments, we may want to take two stabs at it. Two of the last four perfect lineups had two drivers that started in the top 4, and one of those lineups would have had a second top 4 driver if Hamlin hadn’t run into trouble.

2) Stars and scrubs has been a successful strategy. If we are going to try to roster two top 4 drivers, we may want to go all the way and roster four top-tier drivers and two basement drivers. For that strategy to work, we need to nail the dominator and the race winner as well as have the other two drivers finish in the top 5. A place differential would be nice, but a driver starting in the top 15 and finishing in the top 5 would suffice for this specific build.

3) This may be a rare bargain basement double dip. There will definitely be one basement driver in the perfect lineup on Sunday, and there is a chance we will see two. It would be nice to pick a basement driver that has some place differential potential, but simply surviving may do the trick. It isn’t always easy to pass as Darlington, but don’t fall into the trap of rostering a basement driver starting well; they need to start in the rear and pick up some spots.

Stage 1: 115 Laps

Stage 2: 115 Laps

Stage 3: 137 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD): Hamlin is the most expensive driver on DK and is starting on the pole this Sunday night. He tamed the Lady in Black this Spring and is looking to make it a 2025 sweep. He has three top 5 finishes in the last 6 races here, and for whatever reason, Denny loves to dominate the Southern 500 of odd years. Hamlin has led at least 124 laps in the 2017, 2021, and 2023 Crown Jewel.

Chase Elliott ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD): Elliott has not been to Victory Lane much over the last few seasons, but he has been very consistent at Darlington with an average finish of 11.86 over his last seven races here and four top 10 finishes. He starts 21st on Sunday and should be able to mosey his way into the top 10 by the end of the evening.

Alex Bowman ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD): Bowman snuck into the playoffs thanks to Ryan Blaney, and now he starts 29th. This has been a boom or bust track for Alex, with two top 10s and two finishes 33rd or worse in his last five races here. Bowman needs a solid performance to keep his season alive, so I expect him to race like his season is on the line.

Tournament Targets

Tyler Reddick ($9,700 DK, $12,000 FD): Reddick is winless in 2025 and made the playoffs on points alone. He starts 4th on Sunday and is a menace at the Track Too Tough to Tame, posting four top 4 finishes in his last seven races here. Reddick is not afraid of picking up a Darlington stripe and knows how to lead laps here. A win this weekend would be a hell of a way for Reddick to start the playoffs, punching his ticket to the round of 12.

Carson Hocevar ($7,300 DK, $6,800 FD): Hocevar is never a driver I trust but his 26th place starting position is intriguing. For some reason (probably practice times), my model predicts Carson to finish in the top 10. Hocevar is known for finding and causing trouble, but he has had some upside at correlated tracks. By no means should we lock Hocevar in, but he could be useful in tournament lineups.

Joey Logano ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD): Logano starts 14th this weekend and he fills the role of high priced driver with top 5 potential. In fact, Joey has two top 5 finishes, including a win, in his last seven races at Darlington. Sometimes I feel like Logano doesn’t even start trying until playoff time, so this is a great opportunity to jump in on him early.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD): I say it maybe four times a season, but it warms my heart when Stenhouse is in the risky driver of the week slot. He will fill a vital role for us this weekend due to his extremely low price. If we are double-barreling punts on Sunday, there are definitely worse options than Stenhouse Jr. Ricky has legitimate top 20 potential at Darlington. From his starting position of 35th, that is some massive place differential.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,600 DK, $5,200 FD)

This is actually the most stacked non-superspeedway basement in recent memory. Gilliland starts 28th on Sunday and was lightning fast in practice. The practice numbers are most likely terribly skewed, but his track history is not. Todd has a top 20 finish in five of his last seven races here, and that is exactly what we need.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Darlington that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ty Gibbs ($6,900 DK, $7,200 FD)

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

William Byron ($10,700 DK, $13,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Brad Keselowski ($7,600 DK, $8,500 FD)

Keselowski is going to be a popular play, especially in cash games, due to his 32nd-place starting position. He is priced in the mid-range this weekend, which does not lend itself to my projected optimal build, and he missed out on the playoffs, so he doesn’t really have anything to race for. Darlington is one of his best tracks, but he relies on a wonky pit strategy for success, and that is not a viable strategy for consistent success.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 21-29 (6.25 u)

Blaney may be the hottest driver on the circuit right now, but Darlington has not been kind to him over the years. Chastain starts 6 spots ahead of Blaney on Sunday (6 vs 12) and has a better average finish here and at correlated tracks. Blaney has won this H2H in four of the last seven races, so it’s Ross’s turn to even the score.

Keselowski is my fade of the week and starts 32nd. He has finished worse than 12.5 in three of his last seven races here and has a negative average place differential over that time. Berry starts 3rd on Sunday but only has one finish better than 30th at Darlington in his Cup career. We have been very successful fading Berry this season, so let’s keep it going.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 5-11 (-3.59 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Cook Out Southern 500 Cheatsheet

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