LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - South Point 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Check out the South Point 400 Cheatsheet

South Point 400🏁

For the second time this playoffs, Larson completely dominated the last race of a round to keep his season alive. Larson, Bell, Reddick, Byron, Blaney, Hamlin, Elliott and Logano are the eight remaining playoff drivers but only one will be crowned Cup Series Champion is four short races. Their next test will be this Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV for the South Point 400. The track is a 1.5 mile, banked, tri-oval that can be either uneventful or absolute chaos, depending on how tires want to behave. With the exception on Blaney, the cars that have been fast all year are starting up front so race is already shaping up to be a dog fight from the very beginning.

As you can imagine, this race is taking place in the middle of a desert so there is zero chance of precipitation. Mid 70s temperatures and clear skies will provide ideal racing weather this weekend.

Programing note: I will be tweaking the format of the Pitstop over the next few races so feel free to leave a comment in chat or reach out on X/Twitter to tell me what you like, don’t like, would possibly want to see going forward.

_{On to Las Vegas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 215 laps should run under the green flag for 96.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Find our dominator. In each of the last three races there was one driver that led more than 100 laps. The dominator started second in all three instances but with the loaded top 5 on Sunday I would expand my player pool to include all 5 drivers.

2) Roster at least one other top 10 driver. The 2022 races were a mess, making them slightly less useful. Since 2023 each perfect lineup had at least two top 10 drivers. While there will most likely only be one major dominator, a second top 10 driver can pick up some dominator points throughout the race.

3) Look for 5 drivers with top 10 potential. While drivers can make big moves in Vegas, the finishing position is much more important. Find five drivers that you think can finish in the top 10 with a positive place differential.

4) Bargain basement drivers just have to survive. This is one of the few tracks where basement drivers are very much in play and they actually don’t even have to perform spectacularly. A top 25 finish could be enough to make the perfect lineup but a top 20 would be better.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,300 DK, $11,500 FD) Blaney had trouble in practice and will start last in a backup car. His backup will be better than most of the field’s primary and he’s a shoe in for a top 15.

Chris Buescher ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD) Buescher has been fantastic at correlated tracks this season, and I expect him to finish closer to his average similar finish of 10.2 than his Last 5 Vegas finish of 20.4.

Erik Jones ($6,800 DK, $6,200 FD) Jones is cheap and had fantastic long run speed in practice. If he sneaks into the top 20 that will be more than enough to pay off his salary

Tournament Targets

Tyler Reddick ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD) Favorite dominator option. Incredibly fast in practice and great track history.

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD) Most expensive on both sites and must dominate to pay off his salary. While I would prefer to fade him in large field tournaments, Larson always has the ability to wreck a slate, and my model loves him, so I will have some shares this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD) Similar history and practice speeds as Reddick but starting 12th. I love Truex’s upside at a discount. If Reddick doesn’t dominate I think Truex actually finishes ahead of him.

Kyle Busch ($8,600 DK, $10,300 FD) I will play Busch every race until he wins. Practice speeds weren’t impressive but his track history and correlated finishes this season point to a top 10 finish.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

Preece isn’t a sexy pick. He starts 32nd and ran the 31st best single lap speed (not great) but he did show actual speed over the long run, posting the 19th best 15 lap average. His average finish of 20.8 at similar tracks this season also gives me hope that he can pull off at least a top 25 finish.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chase Briscoe ($7,400 DK, $7,200 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($7,200 DK, $6,500 FD)

Ross Chastain ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chris Hocevar ($6,400 DK, $5,800 FD)

Congratulations to Hocevar for turning in a top 6 qualifying effort but there is no chance I am playing him on Sunday. Carson has an average finish of 25.5 at Las Vegas and an average finish of 19.6 at similar tracks this season. Even though he is cheap, I don’t expect Hocevar to hold on to a top 10 finish which makes him completely unplayable.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 27-33 (7.55 u)

BetMGM continues to be the place for plus money H2Hs. Logano starts eight positions better than Elliott and has a significantly better track history. Elliott’s car was better on long runs in practice but my model still gives Logano a two position edge in projected finishing position.

There are some massive values in the top cars lines this weekend. My favorite is Truex Jr. to be the Top Toyota. We discussed his practice times earlier and my model gives him the best average simulated finish for all Toyotas.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the South Point 400 cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!