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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - South Point 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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South Point 400🏁

The field of 8 is set; Byron, Truex Jr, Hamlin, Larson, Buescher, Bell, Reddick, and Blaney have moved on to the third round of the playoffs. This group of drivers has performed exceptionally well at cookie-cutter tracks this season and the next two tracks will really play into their strengths. This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV for the South Point 400. The track is a 1.5 mile banked oval located 15 miles north of the world-famous Las Vegas Strip. This is the time of year when we should start to heavily lean on the playoff drivers, but we will touch on that more in the Lineup Construction section.

One thing we never need to worry about in Las Vegas is the weather. The forecast is 80 degrees and sunny, with no chance of rain. This race will finish on Sunday.

_{On to Vegas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for 103.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Cookie-cutter 1.5 mile tracks are a bit blah from a DFS perspective but I will give NASCAR credit for making them much more entertaining from a viewing standpoint. The ugly caveat to that statement is sometimes Goodyear completely ruins the entire experience by wrecking havoc with their tires. The first race here last year was a complete catastrophe, but the Spring race this season only had two non-stage break cautions.

Dominators are all over the place in Las Vegas. We should anticipate a major dominator that leads more than 100 laps and a secondary dominator that leads around 70 laps. While single-dominator races can happen, they are race. The more likely variation off of the major/minor dominator scenario is two minor dominators that each lead around 80 laps. For our purposes, a major/minor or co-minor dominator strategies should play out the same way. Usually, at least one dominator starts in the top 10, possibly the front row, but the second dominator can come from anywhere. Passing generally isn’t a problem at Las Vegas, so fast cars can make their way up front eventually.

Each of the last three races (since the new car was introduced) has been entirely different. One perfect lineup was front loaded, another didn’t feature any drivers starting in the top 10, and the third had two top 11 drivers and four place differential drivers. The only thing all three lineups had in common is having at least 5 drivers finishing in the top 10. The drivers that didn’t finish in the top 10 were punts that at least finished in the top 15. The moral of this story is our non-dominators need top 10 potential, and our punt needs top 15 potential.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD)

There is no reason to overthink this play, especially in cash. Elliott is a free square this weekend from his 35th place starting position. He is a non-playoff, non-dominator that costs over $9,000, but no driver can come close to touching his place differential potential. Our aim for place differential drivers is a top 10 finish, and Chase has four top 10 finishes in his last 8 races here. Before his problems during qualifying, there was immense speed in Elliott’s car. He posted the 4th best single lap speed and top seven 5, 10, and 15 lap averages. This season, Elliott also has four top 11 finishes at correlated tracks this season, a trend I am looking for him to continue on Sunday.

Carson Hocevar ($6,500 DK, $6,000 FD)

Hocevar has been very successful since he took the 42 car over from Noah Gragson. Carson qualified 25th and has not had a finish worse than 20th at a 1.5 mile track in his young NASCAR career. While his tournament viability is very much in question because I don’t think he can make his was into the top 10, all Carson needs is a top 16 to hit value that is well within his reasonable range of expectations.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson is one of the best drivers at 1.5 mile tracks, and he is starting on the front row on Sunday. While Christopher Bell is no slouch, I think Larson is the most likely dominator from his 2nd place starting position. Kyle ran a better, single lap time as well as a better 5 lap and 10 lap average in practice on Saturday. Larson always seems to find a way to lead laps at Vegas, and I expect him to stay up front for a prolonged period of time on Sunday on his way to punching his ticket to the championship race.

Alex Bowman ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD)

Bowman is starting 14th on Sunday and needs a top 10 top hit value. Alex has been somewhat boom or bust here with three top 5 finishes (including a win) and two mid 20s finishes in his last 5 races at Vegas. While he ran the 11th best single lap speed and 12th best 5 lap average in practice on Saturday, I expect his track history to hold up. Four spots is all we need Bowman to pick up this weekend. Any more than that just increases his chance of being in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,800 DK, $3,500 FD)

LaJoie starts 28th on Sunday, and his current claim to fame is that he is the only driver in the basement price range that finished in the top 15 more than once at correlated tracks this season. While that isn’t exactly a glowing review, at least it illustrates that there is a chance he can do it one more time. To make us feel just slightly better, he does have a top finish of 15th at Vegas so it has as least happened before.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($7,300 DK, $6,800 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,100 DK, $6,500 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Christopher Bell ($9,800 DK,$11,500 FD)

This is a borderline insane fade, but I don’t feel terrible about it. Larson and Truex both are better than Bell over the long run, and they both start in the top 4. Bell’s best finish here is 5th place, and without over 125 laps led, a finish outside the top 3 would put Christopher at risk risk of missing the perfect lineup. Considering my projected finish for him is 15, and his average projected finish is 19.8, I don’t want anything to do with Bell on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 13-44 (-19.75 u)

Doubling down on the Bowman love this weekend. Again, he starts 14th and only needs to pick up 4 spots for him to be useful in DFS and now to help us with a bet. He recently finished 10th at Kansas and had a hard luck 12th at Texas, so this isn’t a stretch.

I actually think Buescher is the wild card in this group. He is going to hang out in the top 5 all day, so that is the biggest risk to Hamlin. Busch is good here, but he’s out of the playoffs, and Bell’s pit crew can take him out of contention at any time. This is possibly Hamlin’s best track, and I am looking for him to turn in another fantastic performance on Sunday.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the South Point 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!