LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - South Point 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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South Point 400🏁

While SVG continued his dominance on tracks with more than 4 turns, the ROVAL provided plenty of additional drama to close out the second round of the playoffs. For the first time in recent memory, we had two drivers cross the finish line in reverse, including Ross Chastain’s failed attempt to keep his season alive. The round of 8 consists of Hamlin, Blaney, Larson, Byron, Bell, Elliott, Briscoe, and Logano (in that order) as they battle over the next three races to land a spot in the Championship Race. This Sunday evening, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, Nevada, for the South Point 400. The track is a 1.5-mile, banked tri-oval, and this is actually the last cookie-cutter track of the season. For whatever reason, this track doesn’t typically race like the standard 1.5-mile track, and I expect the laps led to be more spread out than we usually see.

Racing in the desert is always fun because there is zero chance of rain on Sunday. The weather has still been a major topic of conversation, however, because there should be about a 15-degree temperature difference between practice on Saturday and race day. Hamlin, the pole sitter, already stated he expects the cars to run completely different on Sunday, so it will be fascinating to see how the teams adjust.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 232 laps should run under the green flag for 104.4 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) There will be a dominator….maybe? Vegas is a very streaky track. There were chunks of races where no one led more than 100 laps. There have been traditional one-dominator races, and then this Spring, it was a free-for-all. I am expecting significant laps led from the front row, but I wouldn’t call it a runaway. I could see three drivers leading 60-80 laps and a late caution determining the winner.

2) Drivers can make big moves. This race is intriguing because most of the remaining playoff drivers start in the top 10, while Blaney starts 14th. The fast drivers are starting at the front, while the troubled drivers are not. So yeah, theoretically, the good drivers can make big moves, but the best drivers are already up front. It will be very interesting to see which mid-tier drivers can separate themselves from the pack.

3) The basement is open this weekend. As dominator points are spread out a balanced lineups becomes the more optimal build but I still think there is a way a basement driver ends up in the perfect lineup. When punts work at Vegas they actually don’t have to perform that well. A top 20 is a reasonable expectation for the lower price range.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $13,000 FD): Hamlin starts on the pole this Sunday, and he should be a core piece to our lineup builds. If there were a driver who could run away with this race, it would be Hamlin. Besides the preferential starting position and clean air, he is a master at managing changing track conditions and taking care of tires if the race turns into a tire wear contest. This is the best starting position Denny has had at Las Vegas in years, and I know he will not pass up this opportunity to punch his ticket to the next round.

Kyle Busch ($7,800 DK, $7,000 FD): This is Busch’s home race, and he still manages to put together a decent race here despite his struggles over the last two seasons. Kyle starts 32nd on Sunday and joins Keselowski as one of the most obvious place differential drivers. Neither has had a good season, and I prefer Busch at his home track. I am not expecting miracles, however, so we should be happy with any finish in the top 20.

Ross Chastain ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD): This pick comes with a giant asterisk because if he has to start in the rear due to unapproved adjustments, Chastain then becomes the risky play of the week. For the time being, we are going to assume he starts (and is scored from) 15th, giving him a nice chunk of potential place differential. Chastain has finished in the top 7 in six of the last seven races here, and if he can add to the streak, he will easily make the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD): Larson is my model’s favorite to win. He starts 6th on Sunday and has been very good here as well as at correlated tracks over the last two years. This isn’t the first time my model has predicted Larson to win at a 1.5-mile track this playoffs, and while he performed nicely, it didn’t go as planned. While I think a multiple dominator race will be Larson’s path to victory, he will need some dominator points to pay off his lofty salary.

Austin Cindric ($7,200 DK, $6,800 FD): Once we get passed the big dogs it gets ugly. Cindric starts 31st and has an average finish of 20.9 over his last 7 races here. Austin generally qualifies well and falls back, which is not an option this weekend, so we will need him to post a significant place differential. He is cheap enough that a top 15 could get him in the perfect lineup.

Daniel Suarez ($6,700 DK, $6,000 FD): Suarez, on the other hand, starts 17th and is cheap enough that he only needs to pick up a handful of spots to be useful. Oddly enough, Las Vegas has been one of Suarez’s best tracks. He has finished in the top 15 in each of his last four races here, including consecutive top 3s. Suarez is part of a long list of drivers looking for one last highlight in an otherwise forgettable season.

Carson Hocevar ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD): Hocevar lands in the risky pick of the week because he is another darling of my model. I have a hard time rostering a driver that has never had a positive place differential at a track, but let's trust the process, so to speak. Hocevar starts 22nd and only needs a top 15 finish to pay off his salary, so we may be on to something.

Bargain Basement

Noah Gragson ($5,900 DK, $4,200 FD)

Gragson is starting 28th on Sunday, but he has some very impressive finishes at Las Vegas, including a 6th-place finish last March. While I am not expecting a repeat performance this weekend, a top 20 finish is reasonable and enough for him to be in the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Tyler Reddick ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD)

Alex Bowman ($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD)

Justin Haley ($5,300 DK, $3,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Bubba Wallace ($8,200 DK, $9,000 FD)

Wallace is starting 7th, which is the best starting position for a non-playoff driver. There is no chance he is making any significant moves forward, and two playoff drivers starting behind him will be looking to catch up to their friends as quickly as humanly possible. Wallace has an average finish of 21.9 here, and that is nowhere near his starting position. I am expecting him to fall fast.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 26-36 (6.95 u)

Briscoe and Logano both qualified in the top nine and are known for performing well in Vegas, but then dropping back. Over the last seven races, Logano has six top 15 finishes, including two wins, while Briscoe has only one top 15 finish. Chase has been having the best season of his young career, but this is now the highest stakes racing of the season, and I have to trust Logano’s veteran experience.

To my dismay, neither Underdog nor Pick 6 posted finishing position props, so we have to get a little creative. Essentially, we can use the fantasy points props as finishing position props because I don’t expect either driver to rack up dominator points. Bowman needs a top 10 finish to hit, while Wallace has to fall out of the top 9. Both outcomes are highly likely according to my model, so let’s see if we can bring this one home on Sunday.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-13 (-2.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the South Point 400 Cheatsheet

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