🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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South Point 400🏁

Late lap drama at the ROVAL last weekend had considerable playoff implications, with a driver in a must-win situation taking the checkered flag and the defending Cup champion getting eliminated in the process. The Round of 8 begins this weekend when NASCAR travels to Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV, for the South Point 400. The track is a 1.5-mile, progressively banked, asphalt tri-oval. Tires have been an issue all season, especially at ovals, so the race could turn into a crap shoot. There's about a 10 % chance of rain on Sunday, which isn't a threat, but significant considering the race takes place in the desert.

On to the Las Vegas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run, and 67.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 227 laps should run under the green flag for 102.15 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Races at 1.5 mile tracks this season have been anything but typical. Tires have caused major issues during several races this year and while there have been dominators, they often ran into problems that knocked them out of the perfect lineup. While passing has been hard at short and road tracks, 1.5 milers have been a pretty sloppy affair, resulting in much more attrition than we are accustomed to. Las Vegas has not been kind to drivers starting in the front row, the last time a driver starting in the top 2 ended up in the perfect lineup was in September of 2018. I expect this trend to continue on Sunday and would not be surprised if this race looks similar to the Spring race, where no driver led more than 100 laps and the two drivers that led the most laps started outside the top 15.

Specifically for this race, we should think outside the box by ditching our normal dominator hunt and focusing more on drivers we think can finish in the top 10. This isn't a strategy that we employ in races with 200+ laps but hear me out. Las Vegas has been a track that has historically allowed drivers to lead laps when starting from anywhere in the field and this year has added an extra layer of chaos. By going underweight on drivers starting in the top 10 and going overweight on the drivers starting further back who have a perceived lower chance of dominating we could gain an edge on the field. Ideally we should aim to roster 5 drivers we think can finish in the top 10 and one driver that we think can finish in the top 15. If we nail our top 10 drivers there is a good chance we can scoop up a significant portion of the laps led.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 85 laps, Stage 3: 102 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,100 DK, $14,000 FD)

Hamlin enters Sunday's race as the most expensive driver of the slate on both sites and one of the favorites to win outright on most sportsbooks. During my preliminary research I thought he was a prime fade candidate due to high ownership but I think some people may be scared off of him due to his 31st place starting position. Denny is an obvious place differential driver but at his price he will still need to pick up fastest laps and laps led to pay off his salary. Luckily for all of us, Las Vegas is the perfect track for a driver starting in the rear to still dominate. We only have to look as far back as the Spring when Kyle Busch started 37th and led 49 laps, Hamlin has led more than 31 laps in each of the last four races here and led more than 120 laps in two of those races. He also has an average finish of 8th at similar tracks this season which is actually the second best in the field. We should not overthink Hamlin on Sunday, especially in cash, he is a plug and play driver.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,400 DK, $5,500 FD)

Allmendinger is seen as more of a road course expert when he runs the Cup series these days but he has been successful all season in the Xfinity series at many different track types. AJ also ran two races this season at similar tracks and has some poor results to show for it but that was primarily due to bad luck. Allmendinger starts 21st on Sunday but turned in the 4th best single lap time in practice on Saturday and the 4th best 10 lap average. If he can stay out of trouble, Allmendinger should be able to finish in the top 15 and has top 10 upside.

Tournament Targets

Ross Chastain ($9,900 DK, $11,500 FD)

Chastain is a starting 11th on Sunday but was lightning quick during practice on Saturday. Ross turned in the second best single lap speed, 5 laps average, and 10 lap average. There is a ton of speed in his car this weekend and I think he can run in the top 5 all race with a very good chance of leading some laps. Chastain has found himself in the front of the field during several races at similar tracks this season, including the Spring Las Vegas race where he led 83 laps from his 18th place starting position.

Erik Jones ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD)

This is more of a model pick than anything. My model projects an average finish of 10.4 with a ceiling of second. There is no denying that Jones had a ton of speed in practice on Saturday, where he ran the third best single lap speed and 5 lap average. On Sunday, he starts 22nd and provides a solid amount of place differential potential if he can make it into the top 10, a result he has achieved in two of his last four races at Las Vegas. When things don't go Jones' way, the results can be disastrous, which is why he lands in the risky pick of the week.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($4,900 DK, $3,500 FD)

We are chasing upside this weekend, and Lajoie has some of the best upside in this price range. There are very few sub-$6,000 drivers that can finish in the top 20 and Lajoie has finished in the top 16 in two of his last 5 races at Las Vegas. Corey also has an average finish of 20.6 at similar tracks this season which would be more than enough to pay off his salary considering his 30th place starting position.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($10,300 DK, $13,000 FD)

Justin Haley ($5,800 DK, $4,000 FD)

Chase Briscoe ($8,100 DK, $9,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Tyler Reddick ($10,100 DK, $12,500 FD)

Fading the pole sitter at an intermediate track is always a tricky proposition because there are so many dominator points available but Las Vegas has not been kind to the front row. Reddick absolutely has a chance to run away with this race, but I am going to #trusttheprocess and avoid him in cash games and most tournaments.

Pitstop Picks

17-49 (-19.3 u)

Trying something different this week. dropping 0.2 units on the five drivers my models project to be a possible winner of the race. Over the long run, this has been a decent strategy but not one I have suggested yet. If any of these five drivers wins we stand to profit between 0.4-1.4 units and our maximum downside is only 1 unit.

I honestly think the only thing the winner of this group needs to do is finish in the top 10, so instead of picking Harvick -125 to finish in the top 10 this is a plus money prop.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the South Point 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!