LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Shriners Children’s 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Shriners Children’s 500🏁

As I feared, tires stole the show early last week, but once everything settled down, the best car walked away victorious. I do not expect tires to be such a big issue this time around, but I will tell you it will be anyone’s race on Sunday when NASCAR travels to Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, AZ, for the Shriners Children’s 500. The track is 1 mile flat tri-oval with a unique apron that allows drivers to cut the corner and race five and six wide at times. On a quirky note, don’t get excited about the 500 in the race name, for some reason this is the only race on the circuit that is numbered by kilometers instead of laps or miles. Strange, I know.

For the second week in a row, we get a desert race, which means zero weather concerns. With later afternoon start times and beautiful weather, I kind of like the West Coast swing.

_{On to Phoenix!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 312 laps will be run this week, and 78 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 277 laps should run under the green flag for 124.65 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Under the new rules, package passing has become very difficult at short tracks, but Phoenix is a little more forgiving than most. 312 laps is more than a cookie-cutter 1.5-mile track but not an overwhelming amount, so one dominator lineup is a reasonable build for Sunday. I lean more towards a two-dominator build, however, because three of the four races here since 2022 have had two drivers that led at least 95 laps. Of those seven drivers, four have started on the pole, and all seven drivers have started in the top 8. That said, we should try to have at least 2 drivers in every lineup that start in the top 10 and have dominator potential.

Once we find our dominators, we want three drivers that can finish in the top 10 with positive place differential. While bigger moves are preferred, our real goal is to have five drivers that finish in the top 10. This can include a third driver starting in the top 10 if the price is reasonable, and we think the driver can finish in the top 10 with a positive place differential. Our ideal build will have 2 dominators starting in the top 10, 3 drivers with top 10 potential, and a punt.

Speaking of punts, the bargain basement is open on Sunday. Our low priced driver must finish with a positive place differential but doesn’t necessarily have to finish within the top 20. While a top 20 finish would be ideal, if we nail our dominators and place differential drivers the finishing position of the punt isn’t a deal breaker.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 127 Lap

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($9,200 DK, $10,500 FD)

Kyle Busch was terrible in practice and qualifying but all that means is he is a great play on Sunday. His 31st place starting position this weekend makes him a cash game lock despite his theoretical lack of speed. While he may not be the happiest with his car right now, he has 500 kilometers to figure that out and move towards the front. He is relatively cheap and has the greatest realistic place differential potential in the field. Busch has three top 8 finishes in his last four races here, including one race where he started 22nd. This is a case where I trust the driver more than I fear his car, and I will be riding with Kyle on Sunday.

Austin Cindric ($6,200 DK, $5,200 FD)

Cindric is an example of a driver with a poor track history and a fantastic car that didn’t qualify well. He starts 34th on Sunday after turning in the 5th best single lap speed in practice. Austin’s short-run speed was impressive, but he fell off big time over the long run; that is concerning to an extent, but he should be a top-25 threat based on equipment alone. He is nowhere near a tournament-safe option because he isn’t cheap enough to be a basement driver, and he lacks top-10 upsides, but that doesn’t exclude him from cash games.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD)

I hate Hamlin in March, and everything about this pick makes me angry, but drivers starting on the pole in Phoenix has become a thing, and I really can’t pass that up. Denny has no problem hanging around the top 3 for most of the race here, but his Spring finishes are truly concerning. I am trusting the larger trend and rolling with Hamlin as my main dominator on Sunday. He ran very well in practice, posting the 2nd best single lap speed and top 5 twenty lap average. I was going into Saturday fully expecting to fade Hamlin but here we are, until someone proves the current trend incorrect we are going to have to deal with it.

Bubba Wallace ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD)

While Wallace isn’t an option for a second dominator, he is a reasonably priced driver with top 10 potential starting 22nd. Bubba ran very well in practice, posting the 9th best single lap speed and top five 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 lap averages. He has a ton of speed in his car and a top finish of 10th in his last six races here. I generally prefer to not depend on drivers having career best finishes, that’s what makes this a risky play of the week.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,200 DK, $2,000 FD)

Everything about this pick is icky. This is not Haley’s best track, and he was not particularly fast in practice, but he is starting 33rd. Justin generally finishes between 25 and 30, so he does have some positive place differential potential, but there is no chance he finishes in the top 20. Haley is not tournament-safe, but in cash games, we could do much worse.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ross Chastain ($9,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

Christopher Bell ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,400 DK, $4,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Briscoe ($7,800 DK, $8,000 FD)

Chase is a former winner at Phoenix, and I am almost positive that will make people own him on Sunday. He was terrible in practice and does not have a particularly good track record despite his win. Briscoe looks like an appealing low, priced, high-ceiling play, but I am not falling for that trap.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 3-3 (3.1 u)

Truex is more boom or bust here than at most tracks and Logano struggles when he starts poorly. Joey had a rocket ship in practice, but it didn’t show up for qualifying, and I really think this line is way off. I am not expecting Truex to get deep into the top 10, but he should be able to hold off Logano.

Going into Sunday, I think the three drivers who have the best chance of winning are Hamlin, Bell, and Reddick. Coincidentally, all three drivers drive Toyotas, which are among the favorites at the sportsbooks. While I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Byron could pull off a win on Sunday, I think the Toyotas have the upper hand.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 1-2(+1.2 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Shriners Children’s 500 Cheatsheet

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