LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Shriner Children’s 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Shriner Children’s 500 Cheatsheet

Shriner Children’s 500🏁

A “short” road course was the key to unlocking some excitement at COTA last weekend when Christopher Bell continued his hot start to the season. This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, AZ for the Shriner Children’s 500. I know it sounds like there may be 500 laps or miles run on Sunday, but that is not the case. Instead, 312 laps (500 kilometers) will be run at the 1 mile, flat, doglegged oval. A new wrinkle to pay attention to this weekend is the addition of two sets of soft tires that teams can use at any point throughout the race. During their limited use in the 2024 season, the softer tires showed greater speed over short runs, but their falloff was significant. I would expect the entire field to save one set of soft tires to use during a late caution.

To my surprise there is rain in the forecast in Avondale, but that will be rolling through in the middle of the week. Although uncharacteristically chilly, there is no reason to expect any hiccups for the race on Sunday.

_{On to Phoenix!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 312 laps will be run this week, and 78 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 277 laps should run under the green flag for 124.65 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Dominators are back. 312 laps at a short track offers the most dominator points we have had this season. A driver starting in the front row has made the perfect lineup in each of the last six races at Phoenix. There is generally at least a second minor dominator, and they will also start in the top 10.

2) Front loaded lineups may be the way to go on Sunday. The championship races skew the stats a touch, but in the last three non-championship races here, only one driver starting worse than 26th made the perfect lineup. 1 front-row driver, 1 other top 10 driver, 2 drivers starting 11-20, and 2 drivers starting 21-29 have been a fair successful recipe at Phoenix in the Next Gen Era.

3) Don’t spend too much time worrying about the soft tire. Yes, the soft tire will be a factor, but they have yet to be a game changer. Fast cars were even faster, bad cars were still bad.

4) High risk basement drivers are the target in tournaments. Cheap drivers starting in the rear aren’t going to pull off a miracle on Sunday. A more likely route to the perfect lineup is a low priced driver qualified well and stayed up front.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 127 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD) Blaney is a touch pricey but he is great for cash games. Starts 12th, great practice times and incredible track history, it’s hard to pass him up in cash.

Alex Bowman ($7,800 DK, $7,000 FD): Bowman bucks the top 30 trends in tournaments, but a top 15 will be the target for cash games.

Ross Chastain ($8,800 DK, $9,500 FD): Chastain is mid-priced and lightning-fast in practice over the long run. My model doesn’t think he has what it takes for tournament viability, but he is still a fantastic cash option.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD): Byron starts on the pole and is my favorite to be the major dominator. He has a great history and had better speed than Logano in practice.

Chris Buescher ($8,400 DK, $9,000 FD): The tournament pivoted off of Blaney. Buescher was fast in practice, and my model thinks he will finish 7th. There is limited dominator potential, but it is still a strong tournament play.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD): We will need a cheap driver to start well and finish well; that is where Stenhouse comes in. While he is definitely not a cash play, Stenhouse has top-15 potential, which is exactly what we are looking for.

Tyler Reddick  ($9,200 DK, $10,500 FD) Reddick is not a safe play by any means, but we will need a second dominator. Starting 9th and posting top 3 10, 15, and 20 lap averages in practice, I expect him to get up front in the first stage, and then it’s up to him to make the pass.

Bargain Basement

Zane Smith ($5,500 DK, $3,000 FD)

I have no idea why my model predicts Smith to finish 19th, but that would be a hell of an achievement. I think Stenhouse is the better overall play, but I will definitely take a few stabs with Smith on Sunday.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Noah Gragson ($6,800 DK, $6,500 FD)

Ty Gibbs ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Carson Hocevar ($6,900 DK, $6,200 FD)

This man will not stop qualifying over his head. Hocevar starts 3rd on Sunday and will have zero chance of holding on to the top 10. I will continue to fade him when he starts in the top 10.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 2-4 (-1 u)

These drivers are the cream of the crop but my model gives the slightest of edges to Elliott. Larson has a better track history and long-run speed, but Elliott has the better short-run speed and starting position. Over 100 simulated raced Chase had an average finish of 3.76 vs Kyle’s 4. It doesn’t get much closer than that, so we might as well go with our plus-money dog.

I will continue to fade Hocevar until he burns me. Briscoe is now driving Truex Jr’s old ride, but he is starting in the 20s, and a top-11 finish would be a wild move.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-1 (0 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Shriners Children’s 500 Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!