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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Quaker State 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Quaker State 400🏁

The most accurate call I had for Pocono was predicting a rain delay. Good thing there are 36 races in a season and we get another chance to right the ship this Saturday night when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to EchoPark Speedway in Hampton, GA, for the Quaker State 400. The track (formerly known as Atlanta Motor Speedway) is a 1.54-mile, steeply banked quad-oval that functions as a mini-superspeedway. We have a decent enough sample size, given the track configuration, to get a handle on how this race should play out, and that is why the Lineup Construction section of the Pitstop will be critical this weekend.

Night races are one of my favorite NASCAR experiences, and hopefully, we will be in for a treat this Saturday. Unfortunately, Mother Nature does not always agree with me, and right now we’re looking at a 45% chance of rain starting around green flag time. This could either be a complete washout, a Sunday race, or a rain-shortened adventure.

To spice up the regular season, NASCAR implemented an in-season tournament, and this is the inaugural race. While this is an interesting twist, at a drafting trac,k I can’t imagine there being too much impact. In the future, individual matchups may come into play, but I will not be focusing too much on this unique wrinkle this weekend.

On to Atlanta!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 260 laps will be run this week, and 65 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 210 laps should run under the green flag for 94.5 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Forget about dominators (maybe?) Atlanta is a mini-superspeedway, and drafting will be the name of the game. What makes Atlanta unique is that drivers can lead a significant number of laps, and there is a scenario where a driver can stay up front for the entire race, allowing all the chaos to unfold behind them. Of the drafting tracks, Atlanta is the one where I am most comfortable rostering drivers starting in the top 10, but that isn’t really saying much.

2) Place differential is still the most important factor. If this turns into a wreckfest, a backloaded lineup will pay dividends. Even if this is a “Big One”-less superspeedway race, there is still a chance a backloaded lineup can work. For cash games, I wouldn’t roster anyone starting better than 20th. In tournaments, two top 10 drivers are a viable option, but that is an incredibly high-risk lineup construction.

3) Top 10 or bust. Drafting tracks are unpredictable at best, but we will want every driver to finish in the top 10. While that doesn’t narrow our player pool down too much, there are always a handful of drivers we know are allergic to a good finish.

4) We can leave some money on the tablet, but let’s not go crazy. Yes, back-loaded lineups are generally less expensive, but this isn’t Daytona. I wouldn’t expect the perfect lineup to leave more than $5,000 on the table.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($8,500 DK, $8,500 FD): There is no shortage of good drivers starting towards the read of the field but I Chastain is my favorite option. Ross starts 34th on Saturday and has an average finish of 11.43 at Atlanta since the reconfiguration. He only has one finish worse than 13th here during that time, and I expect big things out of him this weekend.

Daniel Suarez ($7,700 DK, $7,200 FD): Suarez does not get enough attention for his superspeedway acumen. While he has run into trouble in 2 of the 7 drafting races here, the rest of his finishes have all been within the top 6, including a win. Daniel starts 31st on Saturday and is coming off a DNF here in February. I don’t anticipate a second issue for Suarez here this season.

Michael McDowell ($6,800 DK, $6,200 FD): McDowell is a cash-only option on Saturday. I worry about his ability to land in the top 10, but considering his 32nd place starting position and price, anything in the top 20 would be great for cash.

Tournament Targets

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,900 DK, $6,000 FD): Stenhouse Jr starts 37th on Saturday and is coming off a top 10 finish in three of the last four races in Atlanta. He is one of the few drivers who perform better at traditional superspeedways than Atlanta, but that proves that Wrecky thrives in the chaos.

Bubba Wallace ($7,500 DK, $9,000 FD): Wallace is a fantastic drafting track driver and has a win at Talladega to prove it. He starts 24th on Saturday, which makes him a tournament-only option for me, but Bubba does have four top 14 finishes in his last seven races here.

Christopher Bell ($9,200 DK, $9,500 FD): Bell is relatively hit or miss at Atlanta with three top 3 finishes, including a win in February, and four finishes 19th or worse. Christopher starts 28th this weekend and will need a top 10 to be relevant. I expect his previous win to scare people off of Bell, which adds an extra layer of interest for me.

Ryan Blaney ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD): Rostering Blaney at a drafting track while he starts 3rd is borderline insane, but that’s what makes him the risky pick of the week. Blaney loves Atlanta and consistently runs in the top 10 here. If this is a calmer affair, the most likely dominator is Blane,y so I am willing to waste about 15% of lineups on him.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,600 DK, $3,200 FD)

I write Haley up at every drafting track because I am still scarred from his race win at Daytona, but it’s ok because he’s a decent superspeedway racer. Justin starts 22nd on Saturday, which makes him a pretty risky play, but a top 10 is not out of the question.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

Kyle Busch ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD)

William Byron ($10,500 DK, $11,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Josh Berry ($7,200 DK, $6,800 FD)

Berry starts 2nd on Saturday but has never finished better than 18th at Atlanta. While he hasn’t completely bombed here yet, Josh has nothing but downside this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 16-16 (11.6 u)

DK followed the seeding for the in-season tournament, which produced a ton of plus-money H2Hs, but only a handful were reasonable. Gilliland holds the edge in this matchup over the last 7 races, 4-3, and is a consistent finisher compared to Buescher’s boom or bust results. Despite a wide range of outcomes, my model predicts Gilliland to come out on top with an average projected finish of 13.49, compared to 16.89.

There are numerous options this week due to the volatility of superspeedway races, but I will continue to fade these two until Underdogs stops posting them. Hocevar finished second in February; there is no chance he runs a perfect race for the second time this season. As for Berry, he is not great here, and I realistically think we have a solid 3-spot cushion.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 3-3 (0.98 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Quaker State 400 Cheatsheet

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