LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Quaker State 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Quaker State 400🏁

NASCAR has been known to throw their audience curveballs over the years (doubleheader at Pocono, various Rovals, and a dirt race to name a few) in an attempt to freshen up the sport and attract new eyes but I think last week’s street race was their most successful change to date. While rain threatened to ruin the entire affair, their ability to decisively adapt and get the race in with an extra layer of pizzazz was entertainment at its finest. They will be looking to continue the excitement this Sunday when the Cup Series travels to Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA for the Quaker State 400. The track is another one of Nascar’s recent innovations, a 1.54-mile steeply banked quad-oval that was recently reconfigured to race like a superspeedway. This will be the fourth race at the newly designed track and while the racing has played out like the other superspeedways, Talladega and Daytona, there are distinct differences that we will explore in the Lineup Construction section.

Night races are one of my favorite NASCAR attractions, and when they do it at a superspeedway, it seems extra special. Mother Nature, however, may have some other plans for us. There is about a 40% chance of rain Sunday evening, so I would say it’s a coin flip whether they get the race in or not. In the best case scenario, they run Monday night when it looks to be considerably drier.

_{On to Atlanta!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 260 laps will be run this week, and 65 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 210 laps should run under the green flag for 94.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Three races is certainly a big enough sample size to notice some trends regarding DFS NASCAR. While pack racing is a thing in Atlanta, there are some unique considerations we need to take into account when building lineups for this track. 1) Dominators are a thing here, and two of the three drivers that led more than 95 laps started on the pole. 2) All 18 drivers in the three previous perfect lineups finished in the top 10. 3) Drivers have no problem moving from the 30s to the top 5.

Now that we have established those three facts, how do we use them to our advantage? At Daytona, and to a lesser extent Talladega, any driver starting in the top 5 is completely toxic, and we want to avoid most of the top 10. That is not the case in Atlanta. All three optimal lineups had two drivers starting in the top 10. Two of those lineups featured drivers starting on the pole, and one lineup had both drivers on the front row. That is entirely unheard of at the larger superspeedway, but here, we will have to take some significant risks in tournaments to succeed. I wouldn’t roster more than two drivers starting in the top 10, but I think that trend will continue on Sunday.

Once we have our dominators, we must move on to place differential drivers. We must narrow our player pool down to drivers with top 10 potential only. Also, drivers starting in their teens seem to be in a no man’s land. The way the racing has played out, for the most part, is the drivers starting up front stay up front, the drivers starting between 5-20 draft and bump and wreck behind the leaders, and then the drivers starting towards the end of the field get to move up. It seems like the higher-quality drivers either avoid the wrecks or move up further than their lesser draftmates, but overall the entire race will be run in a pack, and the place differential will be made up by pit strategy and wrecks.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($9,400 DK, $11,500 FD)

The traditional way to be successful at Superspeedways is to zig when everyone zags. This track is not a Daytona or Talladega, and we will need drivers starting in the rear that has top-10 potential, so I have no problem eating the chalk with Chastain. Ross starts 30th on Sunday and has an average finish of 5.67 at Atlanta since the reconfiguration. During that time frame, he has an average finish of 18.67 at the other superspeedways so he fundamentally understands how to race at drafting tracks. Team Trackhouse is riding a two-race winning streak, and Chastain would love to add another top 5 to their list of accomplishments.

Bubba Wallace ($8,300 DK, $8,200 FD)

Wallace is starting dead last Sunday and is a free square in cash games. Nothing is a sure thing, so I will more than likely fade him in my qualifier lineup just to be different, but he is a cash game lock. Bubba has already proven himself as a formidable superspeedway racer with two top 14 finishes here and a win at Talladega. There are a decent amount of big names starting in the back half of the field on Sunday, but I think Wallace is the smartest way to start any cash lineup.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,700 DK, $9,500 FD)

Yes, the trend is the pole sitter is the major dominator, but I can’t trust Almirola since the track isn’t short or flat. Instead, I am looking to Blaney as our major dominator from the front row. Ryan starts 2nd on Sunday and is no stranger to leading laps at superspeedways. He led over 100 laps at Daytona in 2018 and 47 laps this year at Talladega. Blaney is the poster boy for staying in front of the trouble at superspeedway, and I expect him to continue that trend from the front of the field on Sunday.

Corey LaJoie ($6,500 DK, $4,500 FD)

LaJoie is getting a considerable price bump this weekend that is not scaring me off of him on Sunday. Corey starts 28th on Sunday and is coming in with an average finish of 10th at Atlanta in the last three races here. Those were not flukey finishes either. He started 30th or worse in all three races, and in two of them he finished in the top 5. Corey provides enough safety to be a cash game candidate and enough upside to make our tournament player pool.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,800 DK, $4,000 FD)

Haley is a renowned superspeedway specialist and is starting 17th on Sunday. Justin has a Cup win at Daytona on his record to go along with two top 11 finishes in the last three races here. Haley is starting in the previously mentioned no man’s land and carries an insane amount of risk, which I generally try to avoid with basement drivers, but he also provides tournament winning upside for cheap, and that cannot be denied.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Austin Cindric ($7,300 DK, $5,800 FD)

Chase Elliott ($10,400 DK, $11,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,900 DK, $6,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Aric Almirola ($7,500 DK, $5,200 FD)

The driver starting on the pole has been very successful at the new Atlanta, but I expect that streak to hit a bump in the road with Almirola. The reconfiguration has not been kind to Aric. He finished outside the top 20 in the two races he qualified in the top 10. He also hasn’t had much success at the other superspeedway, with a top finish of 13th in his last 5 races.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 9-23 (-7.25 u)

The sportsbooks (DK and MGM) seem to hate me because they have not posted any bets besides outrights as of the writing of this article. I wrote up Blaney earlier and want to put more money where my mouth is. I think he has the best chance to run away with the race, but I seem to be the only one because DK has several drivers listed with shorter odds.

Cindric is my long-shot driver. He is starting 10th and already has a superspeedway win in his short Cup career. Considering how unforgiving most books are when pricing outright, I feel this number has significant value, and it should be closer to +2500.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-3 (3.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

NO POLL THIS WEEK, as of the time of this writing, only outrights have been posted.

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Quaker State 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!