Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Quaker State 400 🏁

I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday weekend, I know I enjoyed the beach more than my DK lineups. We get a bit of a break from the same day qualifying for the next month or so and get to settle in for the last stretch of the season. The Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart will take place this Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA. There has been a lot of talk this week about a possible repave of the track in the offseason so this may be the farewell race for the high tire wear surface we are used to. The track is a 1.54 mile, banked, high tire wear, quad oval. Weather could be an issue on Sunday with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast. I hope they can get the whole race in but I get the feeling there may be some shenanigans.

On to Atlanta!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 260 laps will be run this and 65 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 103.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Atlanta is one of the few tracks where a race only has a singular dominator. Each of the last six races has featured only one driver that led more than 100 laps and five of those six drivers have ended up in the perfect lineup. Some of these races have had an additional one to two drivers lead between 40 and 65 laps, but only about 50% of those drivers made the perfect lineup. Each of the last six major dominators has started in the top 10 but only two of them went on to win the race, which is quite an interesting phenomenon. I think the play is to roster one major dominator and two other drivers we think can finish in the top 5 and if a combination of those drivers ends up leading a chunk of laps it will be a plus.

Perfect lineups tend to be more top heavy at Atlanta, each of the last three had five drivers that started in the top 23 and one driver starting 28th or worse. We are going to want to roster drivers that can finish in the top 16 with a positive place differential or pick up at least 10 spots. This is a track where low-mid tier drivers can put together a solid finish but the bargain basement drivers will need to make big moves to be viable.

Stage1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($12,000 DK, $14,500 FD)

Larson is a savage, there are no two ways around it. He led 269 laps here in March but wasn't able to pick up the win which was an encore performance to February 2019 where he led 142 laps and finished 12th. To say he has some unfinished business at Atlanta is an understatement. Larson has been on another planet this entire season and has been the overall fastest driver at high tire wear tracks this season. His 6th place starting position does not scare me off of him because historically the front row doesn't have too much of an advantage. Larson is expensive and will be chalky but I'm going to ride him until he cools off.

Ryan Newman ($6,100 DK, $5,800 FD)

Newman is starting 29th on Sunday and is obviously mispriced. He has finished 14th or better in each of his last three races here, including this March's race where he made his way from 28th all the way to 13th. Newman has been consistently fast at high tire wear tracks this season and only needs a top 20 to pay off his salary but I am eyeing him for a top 15 and a possible perfect lineup bid. He will be painfully chalky this weekend but that will be fine for cash.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,300 DK, $13,000 FD)

On the off chance that Larson doesn't run away with, I think Kyle Busch is positioned very well to be the dominator. He starts second, which historically hasn't provided much of an advantage in producing a dominator, but this aero package rewards clean air so if he can capture the lead after the competition caution he has a chance to stay ahead of Larson for a significant portion of this race. Kyle Busch's struggles in races without practice were well documented last season but he was able to perform better when visiting a track for the second time. He is strictly a tournament play but I do think Busch is the second most likely dominator in the field.

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $11,500 FD)

Byron is as expensive as I can remember seeing him but I love his 19th place starting position. He has been the second-fastest driver at high tire wear tracks this season (behind Larson) and has been finishing well pretty consistently. Byron has struggled at Atlanta, with an average finish of 19 in his career but I trust his recent form over his track history. I think the field will gravitate to Harvick and Blaney as their high-priced place differential driver but I think Byron has a similar ceiling at a price discount.

Austin Dillion ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD)

DraftKings pricing algorithm is a little all over the place for this race and I am using Dillon as my risky play of the week on Sunday. He is starting 13th and priced way higher than I would normally be comfortable to paying but I think that will be the overall sentiment, which would make him a decent game theory play. Dillon was able to finish 6th in March from the very same 13th starting position and actually has three top 14 finishes in his last four races here. Dillion is not a driver I would put a ton of ownership on but if he can hit his ceiling again he will be a lock for the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Michael McDowell ($5,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

McDowell has come back to earth after his red hot start to the season but he starts 25th on Sunday and has some of the highest upside in his price range. He has finished in the top 20 in each of the last four non-road races and if he can keep that streak going he will be able to hit value.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Cole Custer ($6,700 DK, $6,300 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($10,900 DK, $11,700 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($6,300 DK, $5,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Christopher Bell ($8,200 DK, $8,500 FD)

I'm not positive but I'm pretty sure the last time I wrote Bell up as a fade he won so do with that information what you may. He is starting 4th on Sunday and will be smack dab in the middle of a bunch of big name drivers and has nowhere to go but down. Bell has not finished better than 18th in his Cup career at Atlanta and hasn't finished better than 14th at a high tire wear track this season. If he holds on to a top 10 I will be impressed but that still won't get him into the perfect lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Quaker State 400 and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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