LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Quaker State 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Quaker State 400🏁

In what has been a season full of surprises, Darlington did not disappoint. Truex Jr. exited the race early and all eyes were on the points cutline until a surprise first-time winner took the checkered flag. Now: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Harrison Burton, Ty Gibbs, and Martin Truex Jr embark on a 4 round and 10 race journey to crown the 2024 Cup Series Champion. The first stop of this journey is Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA. The track is a 1.54-mile, steeply banked quad oval that was repaved ahead of the 2022 season to turn the track into a miniature superspeedway. Essentially this renders all Atlanta data from before 2022 useless but there are now 5 races we can base our projects off of so all is not lost. Since we went over superspeedway races two weeks ago, I will highlight the differences between Atlanta and Daytona/Talladega in the lineup construction section.

NFL football starts this weekend and the NASCAR selection is already nerfed. The big contest has a top prize of $50K. This is generally the time of year when it becomes harder to cash because almost all casuals are off to other sports. I would suggest limiting bankroll for the rest of the season.

The weather will not be an issue at all this Sunday. Relatively mild temperatures and a 1% chance of rain mean this race will go off without a hitch.

_{On to Atlanta!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 260 laps will be run this week, and 91.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 210 laps should run under the green flag for 94.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Atlanta has earned its reputation as a mini superspeedway but we will need a nuanced approach to the race on Sunday, I am going back to my bullet format this weekend to highlight some differences:

1) Dominators are a thing at Atlanta. Three of the five races here have had one driver that led 96 or more laps and made the perfect lineup. Each of those drivers won the race and two of those drivers started on the pole. Races seem to play out two different ways at Atlanta. Either drivers ride around single file until stage breaks times (leading to dominators) or they race 260 laps double file which shuffles the drivers in the front. Either way, most of the “action” tends to happen mid-pack so driving up front does have an advantage at Atlanta.

2) Drivers up front will make the perfect lineup. Piggybacking on the idea of running up front being safer at Atlanta, four out of five races here had exactly two drivers that started in the top 10 make the perfect lineup.

3) Extreme backloading lineups is not helpful in tournaments. Yes, this may be a relatively safe approach in cash but plugging in six drivers starting 30th or worse won’t print money at Atlanta. Only 3/30 perfect lineup drivers started 30th or worse, which is almost a worse percentage than a standard cookie cutter.

4) Your drivers must finish in the top 10. This one isn’t that easy. Of course, we want all of our drivers to finish in the top 10 and this is a drafting track so really anything can happen but keep this parameter in the back of your mind. Every perfect lineup driver finished in the top 10 so if you want to take down a tournament, only choose drivers with legitimate top 10 potential.

5) Use most of the salary cap. I’m not saying use all $50,000 like most weeks but if you find yourself with a lineup that only costs $40,000 there are probably some upgrades you can make. I wouldn’t go lower than $45,000 at Atlanta.

6) One of the playoff drivers is going to have a catastrophic race. Again this might not be the most actionable bullet but this is still a superspeedway. There is close to a 40% chance a driver will run into trouble and since playoff drivers make up 42% of the field it is almost a mathematical certainty. This is the first time this version of Atlanta is a playoff race and I wouldn’t be surprised if the playoff drivers actually played it super safe. The Fall Talladega race is slightly more high stakes so drivers will have to push their luck but I think most drivers will be more worried about not ruining their season one week into the playoffs than punching their ticket to the next round.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Bubba Wallace ($7,900 DK, $7,500 FD)

Wallace is a fantastic superspeedway driver and one of the non-playoff drivers I like for Sunday. He starts 24th, far enough back for cash security but still close enough to the front for a top-10 potential. He has a positive place differential in four of five races at Atlanta. He is still looking for his first win of 2024 and I believe this and Talladega are his best shots of ending the year on a high note.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

The Atlanta repave has not been kind to Hamlin, limiting him to one top-10 finish in five tries, but he is starting 38th and you would have to be nuts to not roster him in cash. At one point, Hamlin was one of the most reliable drivers at Daytona and we know he has no problem drafting and working the right strategy. Denny’s recent troubles are mostly due to bad luck and timing which is admittedly not something you want to hear about a cash driver but he literally cannot lose a point. Hamlin will undoubtedly be the highest-owned driver on the slate and I will likely fade him in tournaments but he will be a staple of any cash lineup.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Blaney has the best average finish at Atlanta since the repave and starts 2nd this Sunday. While he has yet to be the major dominator here, Ryan has led laps in each of the last five races here and only has one finish outside the top 9. Blaney has started on the front row twice in the last five races and had a negative place differential both times and Michael McDowell is no stranger to superspeedway success but of the two front-row drivers I think Blaney is the more likely of the two to make the perfect lineup.

Harrison Burton ($6,200 DK, $4,800 FD)

This is a borderline insane pick but this is Burton’s only chance to advance to the next round of the playoffs so he is going to trying everything he can to land on victory lane. Harrison starts 12th on Sunday, which means there is a whole ton of downside if his race goes awry but he actually doesn’t have a terrible Atlanta history with positive place differential in four of five races and two top 11 finishes. I hate depending on career best finishes for any of my picks but these are the cards we are dealt and I expect Burton will leave it all on the track on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

JJ Yeley ($5,000 DK, $2,000 FD)

I do not expect us to need salary this weekend but if I am diving into the basement Yeley will be my pick. He starts 37th and is an impressive superspeedway driver with a positive place differential in both of his races here including a 7th place finish. He also averages a positive place differential of 10 spots at Daytona/Talladega.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($7,500 DK, $9,500 FD)

Chase Elliott ($9,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($8,100 DK, $7,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Larson ($9,700 DK, $8,200 FD)

Everything about the new repave has been cruel to Larson. Kyle has turned in a negative place differential in all five races here and a top finish of 13th. What’s even worse is that 13th place finish is the only time he has finished better than 30th. While this terrible run can’t continue forever, I don’t want to chance it from his 6th place starting position.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 20-28 (2.45 u)

Second straight week we look to BetMGM for the plus money H2H. Bell isn’t exactly a superstar here but Larson is pitiful. I love that my simulations this week have predicted 14 different winners and 32 drivers have a floor finish of 30th or worse. No one is safe on Sunday so there is no reason to lay the juice on a H2H,

Fords have dominated traditional superspeedways but they have one visiting victory lane once in the five races at Atlanta. Toyotas have struggled here immensely but they are worth a stab. By weighting our bet we can secure roughly 0.6 units profit as long as a Ford doesn’t win.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-14 (+12.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Quaker State 400 cheatsheet

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