🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Quaker State 400🏁

The playoff picture is starting to get congested with another first time winner taking the checkered flag at Road America last week. There are only two automatic bids for race winners left and with eight races left, including two Superspeedways and 2 road courses, a chaotic finish end to the season is on the horizon. This week, NASCAR makes its second visit of the year to the newly renovated Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA for the Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart. The track is a 1.54 mile steeply banked quad-oval that more closely resembles a condensed version of Daytona/Talladega than a traditional 1.5 mile oval. While the race itself is going to be exciting, the weather may push everything to Monday so keep a close eye on chat and Twitter.

On to Atlanta!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 260 laps will be run and 65 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 210 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 94.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

I was skeptical about how much of a superspeedway Atlanta would become before the Spring race but those fears were proven wrong. For all intents and purposes Atlanta should be thought of as a third superspeedway on the NASCAR schedule. We attack superspeedways differently than any other track type on the schedule. It is very important to remember that this is going to be a high attrition race so we will want to back load lineups. I don't expect it to be as pronounced as Daytona lineups but we should should aim to have at least 3 drivers that start 20th or worse. In March, all six driver in the perfect lineup finished in the top 8 which I think is unsustainable so I would rather build safer lineups that still have upside. Byron also led 111 laps en route to victory which I also do not expect to happen again. Since this is the second time at this track and the playoffs are right around the corner I expect there to be a little more chaos, especially up front, rendering dominators mostly meaningless and elevation the value of generally unusable drivers.

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Bubba Wallace ($8,700 DK, $8,800 FD)

Nothing says superspeedway week than an elevated price tag on Bubba Wallace. Since qualifying got rained out the field was set with the starting lineup metric, rendering Wallace to 32nd. Bubba is an excellent superspeedway racer with a positive place differential in seven of his last ten superspeedways including a win at Talladega and consecutive top 2 finishes at Daytona. I do not expect the salary cap to be an issue whatsoever so the price does not scare me off of Bubba at all but he will garner massive ownership so he could be an interesting fade in satellites and massive tournaments.

Justin Haley ($6,300 DK, $5,200 FD)

Haley is a driver that turned his reputation as a superspeedway specialist into a full-time Cup job. He starts 24th on Sunday and has a spectacular superspeedway history posting a positive place differential in eight of nine career races at Daytona/Talladega including a win. He also had some success earlier this year at Atlanta with an 11th place finish. Haley may go slightly overlooked due to his slightly forward starting position but I still think he has a great ceiling/floor combination.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($9,700 DK, $12,000 FD)

Hamlin ran into trouble at Atlanta in March but has been a very good superspeedway racer historically. Denny has finished in the top 5 in five of his last superspeedway races including two wins. He is starting 16th on Sunday and will have a ton of place differential potential. Hamlin is also no stranger to dominating at a superspeedway, leading 79 or more laps in two of those same ten races. Denny brings a combination of place differential and dominator potential that I think will help set lineups apart for tournaments.

Austin Dillon ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD)

Dillon is another driver that struggled in March that is due for redemption on Sunday. Austin starts 26th on Sunday and is coming off of a very strong Talladega race where he finished 2nd. Over his last ten superspeedway races, Dillion has finished with a positive place differential in seven races and has five top 12 finishes. At this price point, all we need Dillon to do is run his typical superspeedway race and he will have a decent shot at making the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

BJ Mcleod ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD)

Not a name you see here often, Mcleod is much better at superspeedways than he gets credit for. He has posted a positive place differential in eight of his last ten superspeedway races and even managed to sneak into the top 10 at Daytona last summer. Mcleod also had a good run at Atlanta this March with a 19th place finish after picking up fifteen spots in the process.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ty Dillon ($6,000 DK, $3,000 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($7,600 DK, $6,500 FD)

Corey Lajoie ($5,700 DK, $5,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Elliott ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Elliott is an incredibly good superspeedway racer and is starting on the pole this Sunday. Since there is a relatively high chance a dominator will emerge in this race Elliot will be the first on everyone's list. The fact that he is on the pole removes literally all of Elliott's room for error and I think his name recognition will garner much more ownership

Pitstop Picks

11-27 (-13.1u)

There is an insane amount of H2Hs this week but I am looking to make up units quickly. I wrote up both of these drivers this week and love their top 10 chances. Dillon has four top 10s in his last 10 superspeedway races so +600 is a relative steal. Haley has two top 10 finishes in nine superspeedway races but has three other finished between 11-13. He is right on the cusp of a top 10 just about as often as he isn't so I think there is value at +250.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Quaker State 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!