Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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This quirky season continues to roll on as we get a doubleheader race this Saturday/Sunday at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA. The rules for the doubleheader are the same as last year: the top 20 finishers from Saturday will be inverted for the Sunday race and the drivers who finished 21-38 on Saturday will start in that position on Sunday and the same car/engine must be run in both races or the driver will have to start in the rear of the field. The track is 2.5 mile, flat triangle with three straight-aways of different lengths and three corners of different shapes. The length of each race is shorter than the traditional Pocono races, only 130 laps will be run on Saturday and 140 laps will be run on Sunday. This will be the only Pitstop of the weekend, for the second race I will do a longer video on Twitch, that will be later posted on Twitter, around 10:30 PM on Saturday night recapping Race 1 and discussing strategy for Race 2. Feel free to join live because you can ask questions in real time and connect with other Linestar users.

On to Pocono!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 130/140 laps will be run this and 32.5/35 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 105 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 47.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Pocono is one track that gives me trouble every year. The length of the race puts it in a weird no man's land, with more laps than a road course and fewer laps than a superspeedway. These races are shorter than normal, 130 and 140 laps respectively, limiting the available dominator points even further. This is one of the few tracks that generally sees several race leaders, in fact, only two of the last nine races featured a dominator that led more than 50% of the race's laps. We then have to take into account the dynamics of the doubleheader. The top 20 will be inverted for the second race, meaning the winner on Saturday will start 20th on Sunday and the 20th place driver from Saturday will be on the pole on Sunday. Since they will be running the same cars for both races, it stands to reason that the fast cars from race one will be fast during race two also so we will want to spend more of our time focusing on drivers that can make big moves on Sunday.

Now that we laid the groundwork a little bit, let's talk about building our lineups. Unfortunately, we will need a different strategy for each race. I expect the first race to play out as a somewhat typical Pocono race, with several race leaders but overall difficult to pass throughout the field. The finishing position is incredibly important at Pocono with each of the last nine perfect lineups including at least four drivers that finished in the top 12. Ideally, we should aim for all top 12 finishers if we can but they don't all have to be big movers, many perfect lineups had 2-3 drivers that both started and finished in the top 10. A dominator would be nice but isn't absolutely necessary, the driver that led the most laps has been in eight of the last nine perfect lineups but the driver that led the second/third most doesn't always make it. Instead of searching for dominators specifically, we should roster drivers that we think have a chance of winning that can in turn lead laps on their way to victory lane.

Due to the field inversion, on Sunday I think we can pretty much abandon the top 5 and possibly the top 10 and craft a lineup with mostly place differential drivers. During last year's doubleheader, the fastest two cars on Saturday (Hamlin and Harvick) were also the fastest cars on Sunday so they eventually made their way to the front of the field. It didn't happen instantly so there were several drivers that got to lead more laps than they are used to but their scores proved insignificant because they eventually fell out of the top 10 and lost a ton of place differential points. Overall I am aiming for a top-heavy lineup on day 1 and will key in on the 15-30 range on day 2.

Race 1- Stage1: 25 laps, Stage 2: 52 laps, Stage 3: 53 laps

Race 2- Stage1: 30 laps, Stage 2: 55 laps, Stage 3: 55 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,200 DK, $10,300 FD)

I generally stick to the chalky cash plays in this section but I think Blaney is a solid cash play as well as a decent tournament pivot off of Chase Elliott. Blaney starts 27th on Saturday and is one of the few glaring place differential drivers in the field. He has an average finish of 12.33 in his last six races at Pocono and a top finish of 6th during that time (and a win 8 races ago). He is starting two spots ahead of Elliott and is $800 cheaper on DK and $700 cheaper on FD. I believe they have similar ceilings but Blaney actually possesses the better average finish (12.33 vs 14.67) and has more top 20s in the last six races representing a slightly higher floor. Either choice is good for cash but I think we are going to need as much salary relief as possible so Blaney gets the nod.

Cole Custer ($6,300 DK, $5,500 FD)

Custer is a driver that is getting some love in the industry this weekend that could also be popular in cash games. Custer is the cheapest he has been all season and is starting 26th on Saturday. He finished 16th in the first leg of the doubleheader last season from his 25th starting position and narrowly missed out of the perfect lineup. I am looking for Custer to produce a similar result this weekend which will provide a great floor for any cash/gpp team to build around.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($9,700 DK, $13,500 FD)

Kyle Larson is starting on the pole and can run away with the race like he has done pretty much every race for the last month and a half. In the event that Larson comes back to earth for a stretch (this isn't exactly his best track) I love Hamlin's chances to pick up his first win of the season on Saturday. Hamlin has been fantastic at Pocono as of late with two wins and a second-place finish in his last three races here. He is starting 10th on Saturday so I don't expect him to lead the most laps of the field but he does have a decent amount of place differential available to him so if he leads 20 laps and wins he will be a shoe-in for the winning lineup.

Erik Jones ($6,400 DK, $6,500 FD)

Jones has been lights out at Pocono in his career with a top 5 finish in four of his last five races here. He starts 22nd on Saturday and is incredibly cheap for the ceiling that he provides. Jones will be another chalky play for the first race so a pivot to DiBenedetto can be considered for those looking for a lower owned option in tournaments but I don't mind eating chalk when it makes sense

Brad Keselowski ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

Earlier in the Pitstop, I discussed Blaney as a pivot off of Elliott with a similar ceiling, well I'm going really nuts this week and using my risky pick of the week to point out that Keselowski is a nice pivot off of both Blaney and Elliott, at a ridiculous discount. Keselowski is starting much further forward than the other two (18th) is a virtual lock for a top 10. Due to his lower salary, he would only need a 7th place finish to hit 5x whereas Elliott would need a to finish 9th and Blaney would need to finish 10th to provide the same value on a points per dollar basis. This is not the type of race that Kes will need to dominate, which makes it easier to stomach his "get to the front with weird pit strategy" racing style.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Newman ($5,800 DK, $6,300 FD)

I feel almost obligated to play Newman because of his price alone. This is the cheapest I can remember seeing him and think he can be a very useful value piece from his 19th place starting position. He fairly consistent here with five straight top 18 finishes but if he can pick up about 3 spots he will be in the running for the perfect lineup. Newman is not the safest play but definitely a high ceiling play considering his price.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Pocono that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chase Briscoe ($6,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

Kyle Busch ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD)

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,100 DK, $8,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,600 DK, $7,500 FD)

I am going for the low-hanging fruit this week with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He is starting 7th on Saturday and hasn't finished better than 14th in his last six races at Pocono. He is cheap but will still need to hold on to a top 9 finish to score 33 DK pts. I think he falls out of the top 10 pretty quickly and well, always has a chance to go negative if he decides to wreck at any point.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! Don't forget to join me Saturday night for a Race 2 breakdown on Twitch and Twitter, check the chat for more details.

Be sure to download the  Pocono Organics CBD 325 and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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