Written by @joejets19

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Pennzoil 400 🏁

There have been three longshot winners to open the NASCAR season, will Lady Lucky strike again in Sin City? We will find out on Sunday afternoon when NASCAR brings their traveling roadshow to Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV for the Pennzoil 400. The track is a 1.5 mile, banked, D-shaped oval. Weather shouldn't be an issue, rain nor heat, so that will be a bit of a relief. There are some big contests out here on DK (not so much on FD) this weekend so this is a great time to join the NASCAR fun.

On to Las Vegas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run this and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 240 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 108 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Las Vegas is the first cookie-cutter, 1.5 mile D-shaped oval we will encounter this season (Homestead was a 1.5 mile oval, without the D) and these are generally the most predictable track types. We start with our dominators, as usual, and six of the last eight races here have featured two drivers that led 70 laps or more, and two races only had one major dominator. This is one of the tracks where sitting on the pole has not proven to provide a significant boost to dominator potential, for whatever reason, and that may be the case again this weekend. It has been increasingly difficult to nail down dominators without practice so we may want to focus on picking a strong core of place differential drivers and spread our dominator ownership around.

Speaking of place differential drivers, drivers can pick up a bunch of spots over a course of a full race here so we have some roster flexibility. Our goal this week is to construct lineups where all six drivers can finish in the top 15. This means we can dip into the sub-$6,000 range but they have to have top 15 potential which is a lot to ask. We don't want to front load lineups as we did at the road course two weeks ago and I believe the optimal lineup will either have an even split, 3 drivers starting in the top 20 and 3 drivers starting 21+ or have a 2-4 configuration. In cash I would focus on a 2-4 split but in tournaments, a 3-3 may be preferred and all drivers should have top 15 potential with a top 10 ceiling.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,800 DK, $10,700 FD)

There is going to be some serious chalk in the 26-30 range this weekend but I think Blaney is the safest option. He starts 26th on Sunday and has been incredibly good at Vegas with an average finish of 9.17 in his last 6 races with four top 7 finishes. Blaney was also very good at similar tracks last season with an average finish of 12.2. His price is tough to swallow on DK but he provides a significant amount of value on FD where he is only the 8th highest priced driver. He is more expensive than every other driver starting in this range but also has the best history and highest upside which makes him a perfect cash driver for Sunday.

Chase Briscoe ($7,400 DK, $7,000 FD)

I am going back to the well again this week with Briscoe even though he struggled for most of the race last week and still got a price bump on DK. Briscoe won both Xfinity races here last year and is driving the same car that Clint Bowyer drove to two 12th place finishes last year. Briscoe is starting 24th on Sunday and provides that top 15 upside we are looking for at a relatively cheap price tag. I am going to take last week's race with a grain of salt for all of the Stewart-Haas drivers (Harvick, Almirola, Briscoe, Custer) because all of their cars struggled so it was more of a team issue than anything.

Tournament Targets

Kevin Harvick ($9,700 DK, $14,000 FD)

Harvick is starting on the pole on Sunday, which I mentioned earlier does not give him a significant boost in becoming a dominator, but he does have a fantastic history and unbeatable price tag. Harvick has led 88 or more laps in each of the last 3 Spring Las Vegas races and has an average finish of 4.33 in those races. Last week he fought his car the entire race but still managed a respectable fifth place finish. I expect his team to come out swinging on Sunday to make up for their lost opportunity in Homestead. Harvick is tied for the best odds to win the race and is only the 7th most expensive driver on DK. If he can lead more than 70 laps and finish in the top 5 he should be a shoe in for the perfect lineup.

Erik Jones ($7,100 DK, $4,700 FD)

Jones lucked into an 8th place finish here last Fall but overall has not been fantastic in Vegas. He is starting 29th on Sunday and is the cheapest of the chalky drivers starting in the 26-30 range. By no means is Jones a safe play but there are enough good signs to warrant some ownership. He ran the 14th best green flag average here last fall and had the 12th best average speed at similar tracks last year. His average running position at Las Vegas is 19th over his last six races despite having an average finish of 21.33 so he is due for some good luck. I don't think he will be able to sneak into the top 10 but a top 15 within the reasonable range of outcomes.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,800 DK, $6000 FD)

It always feels good to stick Stenhouse in a risky driver of the week spot (which I think of as the Ricky Stenhouse pick of the week). He is starting 17th on Sunday and was able to finish in the top 6 in each of the last two Spring races in Las Vegas. His average finish and average run position over the last 6 races here have both been 17 and his average speed at similar tracks last year was 20th. As always, Ricky is about as likely to finish in the bottom 10 as he is to finish in the top 10 so this is not a high percentage play but he can serve a purpose for our lineups- giving us top 10 upside at a discounted salary.

Bargain Basement

Anthony Alfredo ($5,600 DK, $3,000 FD)

Every year they seem to make this price range more difficult to manage and this year it has been brutal. Alfredo is starting 27th and has already shown the ability to pick up a few spots and finish in the top 25 in a Cup race. The top 25 is nowhere near the top 15 but he also provides a safer floor than Justin Haley and Ryan Preece who are similarly priced.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Martin Truex Jr ($11,100 DK, $13,500 FD)

Aric Almirola ($8,600 DK, $7,500 FD)

Joey Logano ($10,000 DK, $13,0000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kurt Busch ($8,100 DK, $10,000 FD)

Kurt won here last Fall after recording an average run position on 13th and has only had two top 20 finishes in his last seven races here. He had an average finish of 15th at similar tracks last year and an average place differential of -5.33. He starts 7th on Sunday and can do some serious damage to your lineups if he just runs an average race here.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Pennzoil 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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