LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Pennzoil 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Check out the Pennzoil 400 Cheatsheet

Pennzoil 400🏁

Christopher Bell snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last weekend at Phoenix. Poor pit strategy caused the best car in the field to lose more spots than he could make up down the stretch, leaving him in second. This Sunday, however, Bell is on the pole as the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV for the Pennzoil 400. The track is a 1.5-mile, banked tri-oval, the first true cookie-cutter track of the season. Toyota seems to have brought all of the speed to the track this weekend, nabbing the first for starting positions, but it will be interesting to see if they will remain fast throughout the race or if their advantage was in qualifying trim only.

Like Phoenix, Las Vegas is in a desert, so there is practically zero chance of precipitation on Sunday. The temperatures will be slightly cooler than last week's, but still much hotter than the East Coast's.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 232 laps should run under the green flag for 104.4 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) There will be a dominator….maybe? Vegas is a very streaky track. There were chunks of races where no one led more than 100 laps. Three of the last four races featured one driver from the front row leading 57 or more laps, and in two of those races, they went on to be the major dominator. With so many fast cars up front, I think whoever gets the clean air first will stay up front for a while, but pit road will be the key to staying there.

2) Drivers can make big moves. Fast cars will not have a problem racing from the mid 30s to the top 10. While everyone will be watching the battle for the lead, making sure we have the two to three drivers starting 23rd or worse that we think can finish in the top 15 will be key to climbing the leaderboard.

3) The basement is open this weekend. As dominator points are spread out a balanced lineups becomes the more optimal build but I still think there is a way a basement driver ends up in the perfect lineup. When punts work at Vegas, they actually don’t have to perform that well. A top 20 is a reasonable expectation for the lower price range.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brad Keselowski ($6,900 DK, $8,000 FD): With the dominator pool being spread pretty thin, we should worry about our place differential plays for cash games. Keselowski struggled in the short runs on Saturday, qualifying 28th, but he showed decent speed on the longer runs. He has finished 13th or better in four of his last five races here and is cheap enough that he only needs a top 18 to hit value.

Kyle Busch ($7,800 DK, $7,800 FD): I have been mentioning Busch way too much so far this season, but we keep getting him in great spots. Kyle starts 24th on Sunday but had a ton of speed in the car during practice, especially on long runs. He has been fairly snakebitten during the Spring Las Vegas race here, but those poor results have come from good starting positions. Since he is starting farther back in the field, he should be a safer play.

Ross Chastain ($8,500 DK, $10,500 FD): Chastain broke his streak of four straight top 7 finishes at Las Vegas last fall, but I expect him to bounce right back this Sunday. He starts 17th this weekend, but practiced slightly better over the long run. Ross is the riskiest foundational target in the group, but he also has the highest upside.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $12,000 FD): Hamlin starts on the front row beside his teammate, Christopher Bell. While I expect the majority of lineups to utilize Bell due to his clean air advantage, I really think Hamlin’s speed over the long run will be much more beneficial. While I expect Hamlin to be the major dominator, he may not win the race.

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD): Byron is starting 9th, and with all this noise about the Toyotas, he is going completely overlooked. William was fast over the long and the short run during practice and finished in the top 10 in four of his last five races here.

Joey Logano ($8,700 DK, $10,000 FD): Logano will not be in the consideration for dominator points, but starting 21st, he will have plenty of place differential potential. I am hoping everyone overthinks his poor practice session because I think Joey is a fantastic tournament pivot off of Blaney.

Daniel Suarez ($6,600 DK, $6,200 FD): Suarez is not a driver that originally jumped off the page at me, but my model loves him. Starting on the 13th, he only needs to pick up 3 spots to hit the value. The problem is, starting that far forward brings a ton of risks, and if Suarez runs into the slightest of trouble, the entire lineup will be ruined.

Bargain Basement

Noah Gragson ($5,400 DK, $4,200 FD)

Gragson is another model darling. He starts 34th and has a ton of upside given his 6th-best single-lap speed in practice. He has an average finish of 18.2 at Vegas and 19 at correlated tracks over the last two seasons. If Gragson finds his way into the top 20, he will exceed all expectations.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kyle Larson (11,000 DK, $47,000 FD)

AJ Allmendinger ($6,100 DK, $5,500 FD)

Ty Dillon ($5,300 DK, $2,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Erik Jones ($6,500 DK, $5,200 FD)

Jones starts 14th and feels very trappy. His long run speed and low price may seem enticing, but Erik has finished only once better than 14th in his last eight races here, despite an average starting position around 20th. I know this feels like an inexpensive driver that can pull off a top 10, but I am telling you, don’t do it.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u) 2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u) 2025 results: 29-41 (6.2 u)

2026 results: 4-4 (1.05 u)

This is a juice plus money H2H, and one we really need to trust the model on. Hocevar was quick in practice, but didn’t run any long runs, so his car is still a bit of a question mark. Suarez is currently 5-0 against Hocevar H2H at Las Vegas, so this seems too good to be true, but I’m willing to be a sucker as long as I can fade the #77.

To my surprise, Elliott has only finished in the top 10 in two of his last seven races at Las Vegas. He starts 15th, but my model only gives him a 7% chance to finish in the top 10, and his practice speeds support that. Briscoe is another driver I love fading, even though he killed me last year. Briscoe would need to finish in the top 6 to score more than 50 DK pts, a feat he has only accomplished twice in eight races here (both times in the Fall).

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u) 2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-15 (-4.09 u)

2026 Results 2-1 (3.65 u)

I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Pennzoil 400 Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!