LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Pennzoil 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Pennzoil 400🏁

Last week’s race at Atlanta had everything NASCAR could have possibly wished for when they designed the remodel. 48 lead changes, a red flag, and even a photo finish combined to produce what is being called one of the best races in history. While I would be utterly shocked if they could outdo themselves this Sunday, I am still expecting some fireworks when the Cup Series travels to Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV, for the Pennzoil 400. The track is a unremarkable 1.5 mile banked tri-oval. This is the first non-drafting track of the 2024 season, and I am very curious to see how each team stacks up as they start the 30+ week grind.

The great thing about racing in the desert is there is literally 0 precipitation in the forecast for the next week. This race should proceed without any issues.

_{On to Las Vegas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 227 laps should run under the green flag for 102.15 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Cookie cutter 1.5 mile tracks aren’t exactly the most fun tracks on the NASCAR circuit but they have been slightly more entertaining in recent years with the new aero package. The wildcard of the weekend will be if Goodyear gets the tire right. These races are generally uneventful as long as the tires hold up. If not, things devolve into chaos pretty quickly, and pretty much any driver can blow a tire at any moment. Considering the 267 laps being run on Sunday, we will want to build our lineups around our dominators. Only two of the last four races here have had a driver that led more than 100 laps. Ironically, both of those drivers started second and won the race. While those were the only major dominators here in the last two years, a minor dominator will also be important and that driver can really start anywhere in the top 20. I would prefer to roster a minor dominator starting in the top 10, but drivers starting in the 10-20 range can also lead a significant number of laps.

As for the rest of our lineup, finishing position is our second most important factor in evaluating a driver. Any non-punt driver needs to have top 10 potential. Over the last four races both front loaded and rear loaded lineups have managed to make the perfect lineup so it is really slate specific. Going into this slate, I think we need two dominators, three drivers that can finish in the top 10, and a punt that at least picks up a few spots. There are moderately priced drivers with massive place differential potential and top 10 ability that we will need to sprinkle in and if they can lead some laps that would be a best case scenario.

The bargain basement will be open on Sunday. I don’t think a double dip is feasible, but the perfect lineup will most likely feature one driver priced under $ 6,000. This driver will only need to pick up a handful of spots, massive moves or a fantastic finishing position will not be necessary.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Lap

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,700 DK, $13,000 FD)

Hamlin is the second most expensive driver on DK and the third most expensive driver on FD but starting 28th he has the most place differential potential in the field. Denny is no stranger to qualifying poorly in Las Vegas, in face he finished 5th in the Fall 2022 while starting 31st. He was impressive in practice, posting the 5th best single lap speed and top 17 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. Last season, Hamlin feasted on correlated tracks with five consecutive top 5 finishes and an average finish of 3.2. Denny is an expensive pure place differential play, but he will be essential for cash lineups.

Alex Bowman ($8,100 DK, $8,000 FD)

Bowman starts 23rd on Sunday and has top 5 potential if he stays clean. While Alex is not known for his ability to qualify well at Las Vegas, he does have the ability to finish well; that is exactly what we are looking to capitalize on. In practice on Saturday, Bowman posted the 12th best single lap speed and the 10th best five lap average. While his long run speed was concerning, over the course of the entire race, I expect Alex to be able to make his way towards a top 10 finish.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson is the most expensive driver on both slates this Sunday, and that is for very good reason. He starts second on Sunday, which was the key starting position in 2023 and is the starting position he used to win last October’s race. While Larson lacked single lap speed in practice on Sunday, he led the field in 5, 10, 15 and 20 lap averages. He is starting on the front row with Joey Logano, and even though Larson has far and away the best car in the field, he needs to win the start of the race, or he could be chasing Joey for a while because clean air will always be king at 1.5 mile tracks and passing for the lead will always be hard at these tracks.

Tyler Reddick ($8,900 DK, $11,000 FD)

This is not exactly the riskiest of risky picks of the week but my models love Reddick this weekend, more than my brain does to be honest, and sometimes I like to highlight these drivers. Reddick starts 18th on Sunday and will either need to lead laps or finish in the top 5 to have a chance at making the perfect lineup. Tyler has finished in the top 8 in three of his last four races here and performed very well in practice on Saturday by posting the 4th best single lap speed and top seven 5, 10 and 15 lap averages. Reddick will need nearly a career best race at Vegas to make the winning lineup but the machine learning model likes his chances.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,300 DK, $2,500 FD)

Haley was by no means fast in practice on Saturday, but his 35th starting spot feels about 7 spaces too low. While I am not expecting huge moves from Justin on Sunday, he is a much better driver and in a much better car than some of racers starting ahead of his I would love a top 20 finish but anything in the top 25 would be fantastic.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ross Chastain ($9,100 DK, $9,000 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD)

Noah Gragson ($6,200 DK, $5,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Cindric ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD)

Cindric starts third on Sunday and is looking to continue his habit of starting in the top 10 and finishing outside the top 20. Austin was pitiful over the long run in practice on Saturday, and I can’t fathom any way he hangs on to the top 10.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 2-2 (1.3 u)

This is an example of shopping the best line between books. Bowman is -105 at DK and +110 at MGM, which is a big swing, all things considered. Alex has finished in the top 10 in the last 3 races he hasn’t had an issue in. Bowman has a fantastic chance of finishing in the Top 10 this Sunday if he stays clean.

Wallace has the best starting position, Busch has the best track history, Truex has been the most consistent but my model loves Reddick. Tyler had the best car in practice and lets see if he can turn his long run speed into a top finish.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 1-1 (+2.2 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Pennzoil 400 Cheatsheet

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