LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Pennzoil 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Pennzoil 400 Cheatsheet

Pennzoil 400🏁

Tires were the big story last weekend for several reasons and the overall consensus was Phoenix was an enjoyable race. The NASCAR Cup Series stays in the desert this weekend when they travel to Las Vegas Motor Speedways in Las Vegas, NV for the Pennzoil 400. The track is a moderately banked 1.5-mile tri-oval. This is the first “cookie-cutter” 1.5-mile track of the season, so we will need to pay close attention to how this race plays out because it may help us understand how future races at cookie-cutters play out.

Las Vegas has the nerve to have a 10% chance of rain on Sunday, which is utterly unacceptable. Either way, I don’t expect Mother Nature to mess with us too much this weekend.

_{On to Las Vegas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for 103.5 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Only a single dominator will emerge. Over the last four races no more than 1 driver per race has led more than 100 laps. The major dominator has started on the front row in each of those races. A second dominator may pop up that leads around 60 laps but they can start from anywhere.

2) Split lineups may be the way to go on Sunday. This is a sort of new term I am trying out, but hear me out. A split lineup rosters three drivers in the front of the field and three drivers starting towards the rear. Lineups with three drivers starting in the top 10 have been successful at Vegas in the past. Filling out the remaining roster spots with drivers starting 25th or worse should allow enough place differential potential.

3) At least 5 drivers should have top 10 potential. Not every driver needs to finish in the top 10 to win tournaments, but we need to avoid rostering too many scrubs. Any drivers starting in the rear needs to at least have top 10 potential

4) The Basement is open for business. Inexpensive drivers allow us to take a couple of shots at the correct dominator, but any low-priced driver still needs a significant positive place differential.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,300 DK, $11,000 FD): Do not overthink this. Blaney struggled in every aspect of Saturday, but that just opens up a massive place differential. Ryan is a lock for a top 20, and he should flirt with a top 10 by the middle of the second stage.

Ross Chastain($8,300 DK, $9,500 FD): Chastain is inexpensive and lightning fast. While he has not always been successful at similar tracks, he does very well at Las Vegas. Chastain starts 19th and should be a shoe-in for a top 10 finish.

Justin Haley ($6,500 DK, $4,500 FD): Haley isn’t basement cheap, but he does have top 20 upside. He practiced well on Saturday and has an average Vegas finish of 17.5. Just could provide much needed salary relief.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD): I don’t feel great about this dominator pick but the front row has such a distinct advantage I think at least one of those drivers will at least lead the first stage. If this were a road or short track, I would probably prefer McDowell, but at a cookie-cutter, Logano gets the nod.

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD): My model agrees with Vegas that Larson should be the favorite to win on Sunday. His practice times were not overly impressive, and his track history is only eh, but I love his chances to be the major dominator if Logano were to falter.

Noah Gragson ($6,900 DK, $6,000 FD): Gragson is not a frequent flyer on the Pitstop, but he starts 20th and practiced very well. If Noah finds his way into the top 15, he could score enough points to make the perfect lineup.

William Byron (10,000 DK, $12,500 FD) Byron is my third favorite dominator option and the second most likely winner according to my model. In qualifiers and big tournaments I don’t mind the idea of abandoning Logano and rolling with Larson and Byron as our dominators and saving money by going with Chastain. If not, you can pair Logano with Byron or Larson and still have plenty of salary to play with.

Bargain Basement

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

Stenhouse continues to be super cheap and his starting position of 31st doesn’t hurt his cause either. A top 20 finish is not completely farfetched for Ricky, and that is the type of performance I am looking for on Sunday.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD)

Carson Hocevar ($7,000 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michael McDowell ($6,100 DK, $4,200 FD)

McDowell starts on the pole, and I don’t expect him to stay there for long. Historical trends may be on Michael’s side this Sunday, but common sense has to prevail sometimes, and McDowell just does not have the equipment to make a run at the checkered flag.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 3-5 (0 u)

The books are hiding all the good plus money H2Hs, so I have to settle for a juicy top 10. Wallace has an average finish of 20.8 at Vegas, but that is slightly misleading. He had three top 13 finishes in his last 6 races so he has been on the cusp about half of the time. My model predicts an 8th place finish, and he finished in the top 10 in 80% of the simulated races.

Vegas has not been kind to either driver in the past. Briscoe only has one top 20 finish here in his career, and Keselowski has two top 14 finishes over the last 6 races. My model predicts both of these drivers to miss the mark by a decent chunk so we will pair them together.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-2 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Pennzoil 400 Cheatsheet

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