LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Pala Casino 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

🔗Download the Pala Casino 400 Cheat Sheet

Pala Casino 400🏁

An underwhelming finish put a damper on an otherwise entertaining Daytona 500 last week and Mother Nature is trying her best to spoil this week’s race too. Now that all of the opening weekend festivities are over, the grind of the NASCAR season truly begins as the Cup Series travels to Auto Clubs Speedway in Fontana, CA for the Pala Casino 400. The track is a 2-mile, minimally banked, D-shaped oval known for its incredibly abrasive racing surface. The big story during last season’s race here (and many other tracks) was the abnormal amount of tire issues the drivers experienced. The weather will be a huge issue this year because all on-track activity was canceled on Saturday. Without practice or qualifying, we will not have any insight on Goodyear’s ability to fix their tire issue. There is also a growing concern of weeper appearing during the race. Due to the old/cracked racing surface, water from the excessive rain may be trapped under the track and slowly appear through the cracks throughout the race causing unexpected slick spots. Various drivers voiced their concerns about this many times on Saturday, but this may be their only chance to get this race in, so don’t be completely surprised if this turns into a complete mess.

On to Fontana!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run, and 50 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 175 laps should run under the green flag for 78.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

This race will run the same number of laps as last week but will be 100 mile shorter and will hopefully have a lot less chaos. Two hundred laps is a confusing amount because there are a significant amount of dominator points up for grabs, but if the dominator runs into trouble they will not be guaranteed a spot in the perfect lineup. In fact, that exact thing happened last race with Tyler Reddicks leading the most labs by far (90) but issues caused him to finish 24th and out of the perfect lineup. Auto Club is generally a one dominator race. Each of the last six races here had one driver lead more than 90 laps and five of those drivers started inside the top 4. Three races had a second driver that led between 50-70 laps, two of them started in the top 4 and found themselves in the perfect lineup. Besides dominators, it is very rare that a top 10 driver is able to make the perfect lineup. When building lineups I would make sure to roster at least one but no more than two drivers that start in the top 10 but both must have dominator potential.

Once we find our dominators, we will want three to four place differential drivers. For whatever reason, most likely tire issues, fast cars qualify poorly at Auto Club all the time but are able to make their way through the field with relative ease. While it will be slightly harder to identify fast cars this week due to practice and qualifying being rained out, I attached the green flag averages for last year’s race to the cheatsheet to at least give us some sort of hint on who ran well here previously. While a top 10 finish would be the prefered upside for our place differential drivers, a top 20 with a positive place differential of at least 12 should suffice to be considered for the perfect lineup.

Finally, we will most likely need a bargain basement driver to free up some salary space. These lost cost drivers don’t actually have to do much, just pick up a spot or two and finish the race. While it would be nice if they got lucky and finished in the top 20 but that should not be the expected outcome of this price range.

Stage 1: 65 laps, Stage 2: 65 laps, Stage 3: 70 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

William Byron ($8,900 DK, $10,000 FD)

Byron starts 32nd on Sunday, the first of four very fast (and most likely popular) drivers that are looking to make their way through the field in a hurry. While I usually prefer the driver starting the furthest back in this situation, Byron’s price and consistency at similar tracks last season set him apart from the group. William started 10th here last season and was able to lead 16 laps before being caught up in an accident that ended his race early. In his three Auto Club starts previous to that one, he finished 15th in each race with at least spots gained. In cash you could to a lot worse than a legitimate top 15 contender starting worse than 30th and underpriced.

Erik Jones ($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD)

Jones is another driver starting in the rear, 34th, that provides incredible upside for our lineups. Erik is coming off of two straight top 10 finishes at Auto Club and has never finished worse than 19th here in five career races. He showed top 10 speed in three of the four high tire wear races last season including running the best green flag average here and should be shoe in for a top 20 finish on Sunday as long as he stays clean.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($9,700 DK, $11,000 FD)

The reigning Cup Series champion has started this season right where last year left off and I expect the good times to continue on Sunday. Logano checks all the boxes going into this race: he starts in the top 4, had a top 5 green flag average during last year’s race and had a top 5 speed during every high tire wear race last season. Joey has been very consistent at Auto Club as well with seven top 7 finishes in his last 9 races here. Logano has never been the main dominator or won here but I think this is the year it all changes.

Aric Almirola ($6,500 DK, $6,200 FD)

Almirola is the risky pick of the week because he starts in no man’s land (17th) but is cheap enough to pay off his salary if he finishes in the top 10. What are the chances he finishes in the top 10 you ask, well he has three top 10 finishes in his four races here while racing for SHR. Almirola had far from a career year last season but he was still usable at the flat-ish tracks and could go under-owned on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,300 DK, $3,000 FD)

Having the starting lineup determined by Daytona’s finish took half the basement out of consideration immediately but I am going back to the well this weekend. Ty Dillon BURNED me last weekend but we have to have a short memory in DFS and I am willing to give him another chance starting dead last. He has never finished worse than 27th here and that would be more than enough to pay off his salary. If we get lucky and he catches a top 20, a feat he has accomplished twice in five career races here, Dillon will be guaranteed a spot in the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Auto Club that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,300 DK, $10,500 FD)

Austin Dillon ($8,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

Ross Chastain ($9,900 DK, $9,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,100 DK, $5,200 FD)

Stenhouse lucked into a win at Daytona last Sunday but he is going to fall like a lead balloon from his second place starting position on Sunday. He has a top finish of 10th in his last five races here and even if he matches that he will still score terribly without a significant amount of laps led.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 0-2 (-2 u)

DK is slacking on the NASCAR bets so far but I found this doozie on MGM. I like Truex as the top Toyota but Hamlin is the safest bet, I already wrote up Logano as my top tournament play and Larson is the the odds on favorite to win the race. These parlays are incredibly volatile so risking an entire unit may be a but much but I am a micro-baller when it comes to betting so it really isn’t that huge of a risk.

Logano has four top 5 finishes in his last 5 races here. He raced well in the clash and the Daytona 500. He continues to be locked in to start the season and was arguably the best driver at high tire ware tracks last season. I will have a ton of money tied on on Logano this weekend so feel free to fade him.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 1-0 (2.6u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Pala Casino 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!