Written by @joejets19

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O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 🏁

Last week's Daytona 500 was quite the spectacle if nothing else. We had an early Big One, a rain delay, and a last lap crash that provided an unexpected winner. NASCAR is looking for Daytona to produce fireworks again this week, but this time on its road course. Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 will take place on Daytona's 3.61 mile, 14 turn road course. This will be the second ever points race on this track but last week's Clash was held here so those drivers could benefit from the extended "practice" session. One great thing about road races is rain tires. We will not have to worry about a pesky pop up shower on Sunday, but lightning could still cause a delay.

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 70 laps will be run this and 17.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 60 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 27 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

First thing's first, take everything I said about last week's race and file it away until we get to Talladega. Road races are almost the polar opposite of superspeedways. Although we don't have a long history at this particular track, there are certain themes we should pay attention to when building lineups for road races. The finishing position is king. It is generally difficult to make big moves (picking up 10+ spots) at a road course so we want to focus on rostering drivers that can finish in the top 10 with positive place differential. The best example of this I can provide is: in last year's race here Stenhouse Jr started 25th, finished 16 and scored 37 DK pts. He did not make it into the perfect lineup, however, because he was outscored by Jimmie Johnson who started 11th and finished 4th. Stenhouse picked up more spots but Johnson was still the better scorer.

In a normal road race, lineups tend to be more front loaded than usual. This week, I we have plenty of drivers starting further back in the field than usual so we will have to make some tough decisions about how to handle them. There are only 44.5 total dominator points available for this race, so we are going to want to stick to 1-2 dominator lineups. Overall, I think the optimal build will have 3 drivers starting 25+ that have top 15 potential and 3 drivers starting 15th or better who can lead laps and win.

Stage 1: 16 laps, Stage 2: 18 laps, Stage 3: 36 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Alex Bowman ($9,000 DK, $9,000 FD)

Bowman is a fantastic cash safe driver with gpp winning upside. He starts 36th on Sunday and proved in last year's race that he can pick his way through the field and finish in the top 15. Bowman is a solid road course racer with eight straight top 14 finishes including four top 10s. Bowman is more than $1,000 cheaper than Blaney and Allmendinger but provides a similar ceiling and higher floor which makes him a fantastic driver to build around.

William Byron ($8,800 DK, $9,600 FD)

Byron has been sneaky good at road races and I believe he may go a bit overlooked on Sunday. He is fairly inexpensive but does offer a ton of place differential potential from his starting position of 22nd. Byron has posted three straight top 8 finishes at roval tracks and was even able to lead more than 20 laps in each of the last two Charlotte races. He had the second fastest green flag average speed last August and if he can replicate that performance he could be in store for a big day.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,700 DK, $14,000 FD)

Elliott is the hottest road racer on the circuit right now with four straight wins. He is the betting favorite to win the race on Sunday and starts on the pole, so why was he relegated to a tournament option? There is a legitimate chance that Elliott starts on the pole and runs away with the whole thing, but if he doesn't he is almost guaranteed to miss the perfect lineup. There are so few dominator points available for this race that any slip up can crush Elliott's ceiling. He is a fantastic play this weekend, but you do not want to be overexposed and I don't think you will absolutely need to roster him to turn a profit in cash games.

Tyler Reddick ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

There are a ton of good high priced options on Sunday so we are going to need to find some reasonably priced drivers with a decent ceiling. Enter Tyler Reddick starting 24th. He has finished well at road courses in both the Cup and Xfinity series but that is usually a product of a good starting position. If he can pick up enough spots to crack the top 15 he has a serious chance of making it into the perfect lineup.

Cole Custer ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD)

If you have the stomach for it, Custer has one of the best chances to fulfill the "driver that starts upfront and only picks up a few spots but still makes the perfect lineup" role for us. He is starting 13th on Sunday, directly in front of two big name drivers with lackluster histories and behind a number of inferior drivers who are starting way too far forward. His road history isn't terrible, with a 9th place finish at the Charlotte Roval last year, and he actually ran pretty well in Daytona too despite his 22nd finishing position. If Custer can sneak into the top 10 he might be able to provide the low owned upside you need to differentiate your lineup.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,600 DK, $2,500 FD)

I would avoid the bargain basement this week if you could but if you absolutely need someone, you could do much worse than Dillon. He is starting 38th and has nowhere to go but up. He is in terrible equipment this season which is unfortunate but he is coming off of three straight top 23 finishes at road courses. I don't expect big things out of Dillon this weekend, just a solid top 30 could go a long way to securing your lineup's floor.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($10,400 DK, $12,500 FD)

AJ Allmendinger ($10,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

Erik Jones ($7,800 DK, $13v000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michael McDowell ($6,800 DK, $6,500 FD)

McDowell is actually a decent road racer but starting second I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole. He's cheap which is nice but if he falls out of the top 10 he would completely ruin any lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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