LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - NOCO 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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NOCO 400🏁

We may have seen the final dirt race at Bristol last weekend, but there is still more short-track racing in our future. This Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA, for the NOCO 400. The track is a 0.526 mile, flat, oval track. This is the first race in a while where we got practice and qualifying data to work off of, which is very exciting from a DFS perspective. However, we may need to worry about the weather on Sunday. The new wet track package is in play this weekend and we got to see it in action during the Trucks race on Friday but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a significant chance weather plays a factor on Sunday.

_{On to Martinsville!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 350 laps should run under the green flag for 157.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Ok everyone, let’s all say this together, don’t be shy. When there are 400 laps being run in a race, what is the most important thing we look for? DOMINATORS! That’s right, there will be a ton of dominator points awarded on Sunday, and we will need to scoop up almost all of them if we want to win any tournaments. One dominator races are fairly uncommon at Martinsville, especially recently, so I would expect there to be at least two and as many as three drivers that lead more than 100 laps on Sunday. The top 4 is generally a solid spot to nail an early dominator but any fast driver starting in the top 10 to 12 should be in our dominator pool. Historically, almost every dominator has started in the top 10 so don’t be afraid to roster two top 10 drivers but they must be dominators, finishing position is not of huge importance so if we want a top 10 driver, they need to lead laps and/or win.

Place differential drivers are going to be incredibly tricky this weekend and may cause a huge discrepancy between cash and tournament lineups. While we neeeeeeeeeed dominator points in tournaments, picking the right dominator is an inexact science and a risky proposition in cash. Fast drivers starting the in the rear of the field, however, are a much more reliable source of points, albeit with a lower ceiling. I think in tournaments we should forgo paying up for our place differential drivers and spend on our dominators. In cash, we could probably opt for a more balanced lineup, rostering a step below the top tier dominators but then picking some slightly pricier place diff drivers.

Stars and Scrubs lineups are definitely on the table this Sunday. Last Fall, the perfect lineup featured two drivers $11,000+ and two sub $5,000 drivers. While that is stars and scrubs to the extreme, I think the bargain basement is firmly in play, and a few double dip lineups wouldn’t be the worst idea if you are into MME’ing.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 220 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD)

Chastain is one of the drivers that I was referencing earlier in the Lineup Construction sections that may be more useful in cash than tournaments but either way, I love in on Sunday starting the 34th. He was incredible in practice, running the 3rd fastest single lap speed and top thirteen 5, 10, and 15 lap averages. He has a terrible qualifying session but that shouldn’t scare us off of his top 15 potential. Chastain posted two top 5 finishes last year at Martinsville, even when he started as far back as 27th last Spring. By no means is Ross a dominator but over the course of 400 laps I am confident that he will be able to make his way toward the front and easily pay off his salary.

Corey Lajoie ($5,000 DK, $4,800 FD)

In the spirit of the bargain basement double dip, I’m throwing Lajoie in as my cash punt. Lajoie qualified 27th but practiced very well, posting the 16th best single lap time and the 11th best fifteen lap average. He is no stranger to the top 20 either, with two top 20 finishes in his last seven races here. I wish Lajoie’s floor was a bit safer but I love his ceiling and think he has both cash and tournament utility.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($10,800 DK, $14,000 FD)

Byron is the most expensive driver in the field, but he is having a career year. Byron qualified 8th but posted the second fasted single lap speed and the best 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap average in practice. Over the long run, there is no car better than Byron this weekend so if we get a long run in the first stage I could see him winning stage 1 or starting in the front row for stage 2 and then dominating a significant portion of the later parts of the race.

Kevin Harvick ($8,400 DK, $9,000 FD)

I really want someone from the top 4 to be a dominator, but they all scare me. Byron starts one spot behind Harvick and was the fastest car in practice so this is a super risky proposition but let’s break this down. Harvick starts 7th, the top 4 is iffy then we have Truex and Reddick. Truex is a threat, a previous winner and dominator, but his car was terrible in practice. Reddick was fantastic in practice but only has one top-10 finish in six tries here. There is a scenario where Harvick is actually the early dominator before Byron catches up to him and if that happens Harvick in clean air should be faster than Byron. Since Harvick and Byron start so close together, there is a chance this blows up entirely, so that is why Kevin is in the risky pick of the week. Still, I could see three scenarios play out: Byron and Harvick dominate, Byron dominates, and Harvick does not, and Harvick dominates, and Byron does not. We should be positioned for all three possibilities.

Bargain Basement

Harrison Burton ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD)

The second piece of my bargain basement double dip is Harrison Burton. Burton is significantly more expensive than Lajoie on DK but also starts 32nd as opposed to 27th. He was fast in practice, posting a top 10 thirty-lap average but overall I expect him to have a top 25 car if he runs a clean race. His ceiling is limited, but all he has to do is finish the race to have a chance at the perfect lineup if stars and scrubs build turns into the right call.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($9,500 DK, $11,000 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($10,100 DK, $12,500 FD)

Austin Cindric ($6,800 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Preece ($7,400 DK, $6,200 FD)

Preece starts on the pole and was not fast in practice. I do not expect him to lead a significant portion of laps, and if he ends up dominating, I will just chalk this up to not being my week and keep it moving. Don’t play Preece.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 2-10 (-7.5 u)

The books don’t want us betting NASCAR apparently (I am not sure why, I personally pay their mortgage). So there is slim pickings this weekend, H2Hs and outrights only so far. I love myself, and plus money H2H and Truex has actually performed much better at similar tracks this season. Their equipment will be similar, and a pit road penalty will be much more detrimental for Hamlin this week, so let’s ride with Truex.

Another teammate H2H and I’m rolling with the plus money option. Logano is having a fantastic season and is starting much further forward than Blaney. All things equal I would still like Logano; give me the juice and the field position.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 2-2 (1.65 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

No poll this weekend, sorry and complain to the sportsbooks.

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the NOCO 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!Noco