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This week, the NASCAR Cup series goes out to New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. New Hampshire is a 1 mile oval similar to Phoenix and Dover. Rain may be an issue again this weekend so be aware that the race was moved up to 1 pm instead of the original time of 2 pm.

Last week’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Truex Jr., Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Byron, Blaney, Ragan. 354.5 DK pts

$100K Chrome Horn: Blaney, Kurt Busch, Byron, Larson, Ragan, Truex Jr. 352.5 DK pts. Min cash: 275 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Blaney, Kurt Busch, Byron, Larson, Ragan, Truex Jr. 352.5 DK pts. Min cash: 271.50 DK pts.

$250K Piston: Blaney, Buescher, Kurt Busch, Keselowski, Ragan, Truex Jr. 350 DK pts. Min cash: 279 DK pts.

On to New Hampshire!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 301 laps will be run and 75.25 points will be awarded (unless overtime).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 268 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 134 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

At New Hampshire, there are normally two drivers that lead more than 100 laps, with a third driver that can lead as many as 50. The winner is not usually the one that dominates the race, however, so constructing lineups can be tricky. In the last 4 races, every dominator has started in the top 10 and the major dominator has started either first or second. Passing is hard at New Hampshire and this week we do not have any obvious plays starting in the back, so I believe the optimal build will be: 1 driver starting in the top 3 that we think will dominate, another driver starting in the top 10 that we think can dominate, 1 driver starting in the top 20 that we think can pick up place differential points and possibly win, 1 inexpensive driver starting fairly far forward that doesn't need to move too far to reach value, and then the final two drivers should start in the 20's and have the ability to break into the 10's. That seems very specific but if we can build a lineup that checks as many of those boxes as possible, we will have good chance at success.

In the last 4 races there have been an average of 7 cautions and about 7 cars per race have finished more than 5 laps down due to either car troubles or inferiority.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 75 laps, Stage 3: 151 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kentucky Review:

• Martin Truex Jr. (122 DK pts): Completely dominated the race. He started on the pole, led 174 laps and scored 65 fastest laps en route to winning the race as well as being in every winning lineup and the perfect lineup.

• Denny Hamlin (51 DK pts): Very highly owned and had a strong showing finishing 16th but didn't score well enough to be in any winning lineups.

New Hampshire Picks:

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,300 DK, $12,700 FD)

Truex finds himself in my #1 stop yet again and, to be honest, you might as well ride the hot hand. He is the second most expensive driver on DraftKings but starts in the front row and has led at least 100 laps in each of the last 4 races at New Hampshire. Truex may not win the race, but I fully expect him to exceed value and find himself in the perfect lineup.

Kyle Busch ($11,600 DK, $12,500 FD)

I avoid recommending two high priced drivers as my foundational targets because I see it as a cop out most of the time, but Kyle Busch is the only driver to lead more than 100 laps in 3 of the last 4 races, which is almost as good as Truex. In that span, he has only been in the perfect lineup 2 times (because Kyle Larson picked up a ton of place differential) so I don't see him as a stone cold lock, but I do think you need to play the two most likely dominators and he is clearly number 2.

Tournament Targets

Kentucky Review:

• Kyle Busch (52 DK pts): We discussed what to do between Busch, Harvick and Keselowski and my prefered play was Busch. While scoring 52 DK points isn't terrible, we needed him to lead some laps to pay off his salary and, unfortunately, he was outscored by 5 other cheaper drivers.

• Matt DiBenedetto (7 DK pts): Had an issue early on and barely made it back to his starting position.

• Bubba Wallace (15 DK pts): Lost 2 spots and didn't have any fastest laps, didn't kill your lineups but was disappointing

New Hampshire Picks:

Aric Almirola ($8,300 DK , $9,400 FD)

The tournament section this week is going to be a little more risky than most weeks, but that is why we play tournaments. Almirola has had positive place differential in 3 of his last 4 races here and has run very well at the two 1-mile tracks so far this year. Starting 13th brings a lot of risk into play, especially when drivers like Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Jimmie Johnson start behind you. But Almirola has been having a career year since his equipment upgrade, and if he pulls off a top 8, he could very well find himself in the winning lineup.

Matt Kenseth ($6,800 DK , $8,600 FD)

In his limited schedule, Kenseth has clearly outperformed Trevor Bayne and has proven that he is still a great driver but he is not what he used to be. In 2016 Kenseth had 2 great races at New Hampshire and, while I don't expect him to repeat those performances, I believe he has enough skill to navigate his way to an efficient day of DraftKings scoring. It is important to remember that Kenseth is in significantly worse equipment than when he last tore it up here but I am willing to play him considering he is starting 31st.

Daniel Suarez ($7,100 DK , $9,000 FD)

Maybe the riskiest driver in the section, Suarez has shown in his short career that he excels at 1 mile tracks, with an average finish of 7th in his two races here. The problem is that he starts 9th and absolutely has to finish 7th or better to be worth rostering. That is a tall task to ask of young Suarez, but if he can pull it off, he will pay huge dividends.

Bargain Bin

Kentucky review:

• Landon Cassill (11 DK points): Not the highest scoring driver in the range, finished where he started

• Timmy Hill (15 DK points): The winning and optimal lineups didn't have to dip this far down but for the minimum salary he had a nice race

New Hampshire Picks

Sub $5,500- Michael McDowell ($5,200 DK, $6,400 FD)

McDowell is starting from the rear of the field due to a crash in the last practice. We are getting McDowell at a bit of a discount this week but playing him does take on more risk than I usually like at this price point because he will be in his backup car and wasn't showing a ton of speed in the first place. I still think hes the best driver in this tier but wouldn't blame you for pivoting to Ross Chastain.

Sub $5,000 BJ McLeod ($4,800 DK, $5,000 FD)

This section has killed me the past few weeks and my best calls have been to fade it entirely. This week, a fade is the right play again, but if you absolutely have to, McLeod is a nice choice. He is slightly more expensive than min. price but he does start second to last and, if he were to stay clean, he could pick up a few places along the way.

Other Drivers To Consider

Kentucky Recap

• Brad Keselowski (58 pts): Did better than Kyle Busch and Harvick, found himself in a winning and perfect lineup.

• William Byron (25 DK pts): Byron didn't score particularly well but did enough to get in the perfect and winning lineups.

• Jamie McMurray (33.5 DK pts): McMurray seemed to be a tout favorite and scored well but didn't make it in to any winning lineups.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at New Hampshire that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Paul Menard ($6,600 DK, $7,700 FD)

Clint Bowyer ($9,200 DK, $10,400 FD)

Austin Dillon ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kentucky Recap:

• Alex Bowman (-15.75 DK pts): Bowman had is day end early and was the only driver in the field to go negative. It was nearly impossible to cash if you had him in your lineup.

Kentucky Pick

Ryan Blaney ($8,600 DK, $10,000 FD)

Starting 5th and never finishing better than 8th at a 1-mile track, Blaney is my fade of the week. I was toying with the idea of fading one of the Johnson/Logano/Larson trio because I don't think they will provide enough place differential upside if we get the traditional 2 dominators, but I think Blaney is just about a lock to not reach value or be in any tournament winning lineups.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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