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This week, the NASCAR Cup series goes out to Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, KY for the Quaker State 400.  Kentucky is a 1.5 mile tri-oval similar to Las Vegas, Kansas, Texas, etc.  For the first time in what seems like all summer, weather should not be a factor this weekend.

Last week’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Allmendinger, Truex Jr, Dibenedetto, Buescher, Kahne, Jones ($41,100). 398.25 DK pts

$100K Slingshot: Allmendinger, Buescher, Chastain, Earnhardt, Jones, Kahne ($35,7000) 368.75 DK pts. Min cash: 150.75 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Allmendinger, Buescher, Chastain, Earnhardt, Jones, Kahne ($35,7000) 368.75 DK pts. Min cash: 158.50 DK pts.

$250K Firecracker: Allmendinger, Dibenedetto, Jones, Kahne, Ragan, Truex Jr ($41,900) 373.75 DK pts.   Min cash:  178.25 DK pts.

On to Kentucky!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (unless overtime).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 222 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 111 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Kentucky is an interesting race because it is characterized by dominators and cautions.  The last 4 races here have seen 5 drivers lead more than 100 laps (with 2 drivers leading more than 100 in July of '17) and have averaged 9 cautions.  In three of the last four races, the major and the minor dominator have both started either 1st or 2nd and they both ended up in the perfect lineup.  In the other race the polesitter did not lead any laps but the #2 driver lead some laps and the major dominator started in the top 10.  Overall, I believe we will be looking to play a stars and scrubs like lineup with two to three high priced drivers and then fill out the rest with place differential plays.  Around 8 drivers per race finish more than 10 laps behind the leader for a virtual DNF around 20%, but I don't suggest loading up on too many slower cars because they have a tough time cracking the top 25.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Daytona Review:

• Paul Menard (19.50 DK pts): First casualty of the race but held out to the end and actually finished 28th, picking up 2 places in the process.

• Matt Dibenedetto (62.50 DK pts): Seventh place finish, found himself in the perfect lineup as well as the lineup that took down the Firecracker. He was able to avoid all the trouble and finish strong.

Kentucky Picks: 

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,200 DK, $12,500 FD)

At Kentucky, you want to build around the pole sitter, and look who qualified first.  Truex won here last year while leading 152 laps and racking up 84 fastest laps.  He has been fairly boom or bust here but I like his outlook this weekend.

Denny Hamlin ($9,500 DK, $10,400 FD)

I try to find any reason not to play Hamlin, but starting 36th, you have to play him this weekend.  My biggest argument against him was that I didn't think he had a chance to dominate, but since he's starting so far back, he doesn't have to.  A top 10 guarantees Hamlin at least 60 points, and even though his single lap practice speeds aren't great, he lead the field in 10 lap average in the second practice

Tournament Targets

Daytona Review:

• Aric Almirola (21 DK pts): Just about as highly owned as Menard and was having himself a hell of a race until the final 5 laps.  He was another case of what could have been, but also why it is beneficial to start drivers from the back at restrictor plate races because his 27th place finish still allowed you to cash.

• AJ Allmendinger (63.75 DK pts): Third place finish, in the perfect lineup as well as all of the winning lineups.  Great race from 'Dinger.

• Denny Hamlin (-14 DK pts): I prefaced this pick with the idea that it was very risky but we need a little exposure to drivers starting 10-20.  Turns out Truex was that driver and Hamlin got caught up in the first "Big One".  He went negative but was only the 5th lowest scoring driver of the day (the other 4 were in the top 12)

Kentucky Picks:

Kyle Busch  ($11,000 DK , $12,500 FD)

We are going to want to target a second dominator for this race and our options are Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski.  Busch is starting the furthest back of the three, so he has some work to do to get up front, but he has the best car of the bunch and has the history.  He has led more than 100 laps in 4 of the last 7 races here and also has won 3 races this year at 1.5 mile tracks.  

Matt DiBenedetto  ($5,500 DK , $5,000 FD)

For the second week in a row, I am recommending DiBenedetto.  With such a top heavy lineup, you are going to want some low priced options and this is the first place I am looking.  Dibenedetto does not have a killer history here but has a much better car than everyone but Hamlin, who starts in the 30's.  I don't expect him to smash like last weekend, but a top 25 gets 31 points and that is a good day at the track.

Bubba Wallace ($6,000 DK , $7,500 FD)

Wallace is another spot we can look for salary relief.  Wallace has 3 top 20's this year at 1.5 mile tracks, and judging by practice times, has a top 15 car.  He needs a top 19 to reach 5x value and I think he has a good chance to get there.

Bargain Bin

Daytona review:

• Ross Chastain  (37.5 DK points): Did not find himself in the perfect lineup but did help take down the Slingshot and Happy Hour.  Got swept up in a crash late but did more than enough to pay off his salary.

• Corey LaJoie (20 DK points):  In any other race, 20 points would have been nice, but again, he was the lowest scoring driver in this range.  Earnhardt was the pick down here but you couldn't really go wrong.

Kentucky Picks

Sub $5,500- Landon Cassill ($5,300 DK, $5,000 FD)

DiBenedetto is my favorite play in this range but I don't want to use him twice so I am giving Cassil another chance.  I am going to try to avoid this range this week but Cassill is starting the furthest back of the drivers in this range and has the best chance to outscore his competition.

Sub $5,000 Timmy Hill ($4,500 DK, $5,000 FD)

Playing Timmy Hill is like playing with fire, his car can literally explode at any minute.  He is the minimum price and starting dead last, so he can't lose you any points... so that's a plus.

Other Drivers To Consider

Daytona Recap

• Kurt Busch (-6.75 DK pts): Caught up in his first big wreck and his day ended early.

• Chris Buescher (60 DK pts): Another week in the Perfect Lineup as well as 2 winning lineups.

• Joey Logano (-22.5 DK pts):  My other pick in the 10-20 range that got caught up in a crash and went negative.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Kentucky that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Brad Keselowski  ($9,800 DK, $10,700 FD)

William Byron  ($6,200 DK, $7,200 FD)

Jamie McMurray ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daytona Recap:

• Jimmie Johnson (10.5 DK pts): Up until the very end, this looked like a pick that was going to haunt me.  I put my money where my mouth was and faded the entire top 10.  It took until the 162nd lap but Johnson got caught up in a wreck and dropped all the way to 23rd.  He didn't kill any lineups but sure didn't help them either.

Kentucky Pick

Alex Bowman ($7,600 DK, $8,500 FD)

Alex Bowman is having himself a nice year but has only finished better than 16th twice at 1.5 miles tracks.  His car is practicing in the mid 20's and he has some heavy hitters sitting right behind him, so I expect him to fall out of the teens throughout the race.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend!  Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Quaker State 400 Cheatsheet!  

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and let me know if you have any questions about the cheatsheet.