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This week, the NASCAR Cup series goes out to Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Daytona is a 2.5 mile tri-oval restrictor plate track (more on the significance of that later). There is some rain forecasted for Saturday night but the race should go off without a hitch,

Last week’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: McDowell, Larson, Stenhouse Jr, Hamlin, Buescher, Truex Jr. 335.75 DK pts

$100K Chrome Horn: McDowell, Larson, Stenhouse Jr, Hamlin, Buescher, Truex Jr. 335.75 DK pts. Min cash: 283.50 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: McDowell, Larson, Stenhouse Jr, Hamlin, Buescher, Truex Jr. 335.75 DK pts. Min cash: 280.50 DK pts.

$250K Track Record: McDowell, Larson, Stenhouse Jr, Hamlin, Buescher, Truex Jr. 335.75 DK pts. Min cash: 289.25 DK pts.

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so lets see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week 160 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (unless overtime).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 125 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 62.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

The key phrase for this weekend is "restrictor plate racing," so let me break down what that means so we are all on the same page. At a restrictor plate track (Daytona and Talladega), NASCAR mandates that every car be fitted with a special device that limits how fast the car can go. Since just about every car is stuck at the same top speed, they all run together in a pack with usually 20-25 cars squeezed together. While this might sound boring, it actually leads to mass chaos because, with the slightest misstep, one driver can take out half the field (referred to as the big one). In the last 4 races at Daytona, about 16 drivers per race either wrecked out entirely or finished more than 5 laps back, which is 35-40% depending on how many entrants.

Now, what does all of this mean for DFS? First of all, practice times are just about useless and second, you will find yourself playing some of the ugliest lineups you could ever imagine. As NASCAR DFS has gotten sharper, people have realized that at Daytona, the optimal strategy is to roster all drivers starting 25th or worse because you maximize your potential points if your driver avoids the wrecks, while minimizing your losses if they get swept up in one. The prevailing wisdom says that there is no reason to aim for a dominator at Daytona. But oddly enough, in 3 of the last 5 races, there has been a driver that has lead at least 95 laps. Two of those dominators ended up winning the race and all 3 were in the perfect lineup. But trying to find the one driver that will dominate will be incredibly hard, and if you pick wrong, it can crush a lineup. None of the previous 5 perfect lineups had a total salary higher than $42,800 and they all had at least 2 and up to 5 drivers starting in the 30's, with the average being around 3. To sum it all up, we want to build lineups that leave at least $4,000 on the table and is comprised of at least 3 drivers starting in the 30's and a max of 1 driver starting in the top 10 or 20. For cash games, don't even bother trying to nail the dominator. Create your lineups exclusively from drivers starting 25th or worse.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 40 laps, Stage 2: 40 laps, Stage 3: 80 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chicagoland Review:

• Kyle Larson (84.25 DK pts): Highest scoring driver of the weekend, didn't win or dominate but absolutely crushed it this weekend.

• Kevin Harvick (76.75 DK pts): Third place finish, was able to lead 39 laps with 36 fastest laps. Did not find himself in the perfect lineup but was the fourth highest scoring driver.

Last weekend, we had a "Special Considerations" section because of the post qualification craziness. In cash, the combination of Truex/Hamlin/Johnson/Buescher was a solid play and should have given you a safe floor for success. We discussed in GPPs you would want to play at least 2 of the drivers or play 3 and hope to nail the one dominator. It turns out that the 3 driver plus 1 stud was the answer. Although Larson was not a traditional dominator, he managed to be the highest scoring driver of the weekend.

Daytona Picks:

Paul Menard ($7,400 DK, $9,000 FD)

What a difference a week makes. Menard has gone from my fade of the week to my top driver. In his last 5 races at Daytona, he has a 3,5,6,16,18 and 36 and was in the perfect lineup in each of the last 3 races. He starts this race at the 30th position but had the 11th fastest practice time, which doesn't mean too much except his car is not as bad as he qualified.

Matt DiBenedetto ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD)

Starting one spot further back than Menard is Matt DiBenedetto. Matt has 4 top 20 finishes in his last 6 restrictor plate races with positive place differential in each of his last 3 races at Daytona. In those three races, he scored between 28 and 54 DK points. And even though he did not find himself in the perfect lineup, he is a solid driver to pair with Menard.

Tournament Targets

Chicagoland Review:

• Ryan Blaney (21.25 DK pts): Got out to the lead early like I had hoped but only led 19 laps, outscored Chase Elliott by 11.25 points.

• Bubba Wallace (20 DK pts): I had higher hopes for his run this weekend, solid race but did not move around at all.

• Jamie McMurray (33 DK pts): Another driver with solid race but didn't do enough to make a big splash.

Daytona Picks:

Aric Almirola ($8,700 DK , $10,100 FD)

As mentioned previously in the lineup construction section, in cash games, you probably want to pick all drivers starting in the 30's and call it a day. In tournaments, you are going to have to diversify your lineups by picking a few drivers starting a little further up, and my first choice will be Aric Almirola. Almirola has finished in the top 11 in each of his last 6 restrictor plate races and hasn't finished worse that 27th in his last 10 restrictor plate races.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,000 DK , $7,200 FD)

Allmendinger may fly under the radar this weekend because he starts 24th and does not have the reputation of being a great restrictor plate driver. If you take a closer look, however, you will notice that he is pretty terrible at Talladega but solid at Daytona. 'Dinger has finished better than 13th in each of the last 4 races at Daytona, with a top finish of 3rd and an average of 18 positions gained.

Denny Hamlin ($8,100 DK , $9,100 FD)

Hamlin is an incredibly risky play this week but could be very low owned and has access to a very high ceiling, making him an ideal GPP play. He has the 5th highest average driver rating at Daytona in the last 5 races, but also starts the furthest back of the 5 and has lead at least 7 laps in 5 of the last 6. If he gets caught up in a wreck, he would kill a lineup, but if he stays clean, has a chance to get up front a lead some laps.

Bargain Bin

Chicagoland review:

• Landon Cassill (3 DK points): Lowest scoring driver in the $5,500 to $5,000. This was another week to avoid this range if possible and that was proven when the cheapest driver in the perfect lineup was $6,000.

• Corey LaJoie (8 DK points): Was outscored by Reed Sorenson by 3 points but still not worth the roster spot.

Daytona Picks

Sub $5,500- Ross Chastain ($5,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

This will be a very popular range this week, but I am hoping we can use Chastain's lack of name recognition to our advantage this week. This will be his first Cup series race at Daytona, but he ran here 8 times in the Xfinity series and has a high finish of 6 and a low finish of 29. He may have a hard time keeping up with the pack, but as long as he stays out of trouble, he should be able to have himself a nice weekend.

Sub $5,000 Corey LaJoie ($4,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

This is another week I will be rostering Lajoie and his history is actually much better than his price suggests. He starts 38th, so he can't lose you points, and in 2017, he had finishes of 24th and 11th. His car showed enough speed in practice to suggest he can keep up with the pack and is actually faster than some of the cars starting in front of him.

Other Drivers To Consider

Chicagoland Recap

• Alex Bowman (39 DK pts): Top 10 finish and was able to pay off his salary.

• Ty Dillon (13.5 DK pts): Another week I fell into the Dillon trap, can not put it together this year.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kurt Busch ($8,800 DK, $10,800 FD)

Chris Buescher ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD)

Joey Logano ($10,700 DK, $11,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chicagoland Recap:

• Paul Menard (19.5 DK pts): He wasn't able to lead one lap from the pole and fell through the field like a lead balloon. He still managed a top 15 and didn't go negative, but he was a driver you could safely cross off of your player pool.

Daytona Pick

Jimmie Johnson ($8,500 DK, $9,300 FD)

Jimmie Johnson is having a forgettable year by his standards and I believe that continues this weekend. This is another case of Johnson having great longer term history but he has failed to finish 3 of his last 4 races here. Since he is starting 4th, he would have to dominate a significant number of laps to find himself in the perfect lineup and I just can't see him doing it.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Coke Zero Sugar 400 Cheatsheet!  

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and let me know if you have any questions about the cheatsheet.

A note about the cheatsheet this week, individual comments about drivers have been omitted because Daytona is a highly volatile race. Instead I will add suggested ownership percentages.